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Fantasy Games Won: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Gabe Davis

Fantasy Games Won: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Gabe Davis

Sometimes, it’s fun to dig into the studs in a given week. Sometimes, it’s fun to dig into the duds. But other times, it’s most fun to dig into the players dragging your team through the mud.

What if I told you that the biggest predictor of Gabe Davis‘ fantasy football success has been whether or not he’s in your fantasy lineup?

Fantasy Games Won (FGW)

I go over the FGW statistic in Week 8’s article. For a deeper dive, check out my blog. TL;DR: 0.15 = 15% increase in your chances of winning a fantasy matchup.

St. Gabe, the Archwideout

Here’s a breakdown of Gabe Davis‘ fantasy season so far, each week ranked by his % Started number:

Week Pts % Started
Week 07 1.1 58%
Week 06 1.6 56%
Week 09 0 56%
Week 10 8.6 53%
Week 01 4.2 22%
Week 11 0 20%
Week 02 18.2 12%
Week 08 19.2 11%
Week 04 13.6 10%
Week 05 19 9%
Week 03 9.8 6%
Week 12 19.5 6%

Yes, you calculated that right. In weeks where he’s started at least 20% of the time, he scores 2.6 fantasy points per game. In weeks where he’s started less than that – 16.7 points per game. His top-six games are all below the 20% started threshold, too.

The % Started number I use is also adjusted to reflect expert rankings, so it shows what active fantasy managers are likely to do with their lineups.

You look at this and could conclude that recency bias is causing everyone to bench Davis when he should be played, and play him when he should be benched. You could also conclude that given enough players, someone’s schedule in the season will look like this.

What do I think? I’m probably in the latter camp. But what I know for sure is I will not be comfortable starting Gabe Davis for a long, long time.

Who Won Week 12?

# Player Pos Pts %St FGW
1 Josh Allen QB 41.7 95% 0.36
2 Christian McCaffrey RB 28.4 100% 0.31
3 Jalen Hurts QB 37.5 93% 0.30
4 Kyren Williams RB 35.4 74% 0.29
5 Dak Prescott QB 36.2 90% 0.27
6 Bijan Robinson RB 25.8 91% 0.24
7 Miami DEF 21.0 80% 0.22
8 Mike Evans WR 22.0 92% 0.20
9 Tyreek Hill WR 20.9 98% 0.19
10 Dallas DEF 16.0 100% 0.18
11 Isiah Pacheco RB 23.4 80% 0.17
12 C.J. Stroud QB 32.9 68% 0.17
13 Jonathan Taylor RB 21.1 89% 0.15
14 Derrick Henry RB 20.1 99% 0.15
15 Raheem Mostert RB 21.4 84% 0.15
  • Josh Allen with his best week since I started recording FGW back in Week 1 of 2021. He did hit 0.36 in Week 4 when he was started 100% of the time and scored 40.5 points. Would hate to be in the 5% that benched him this week.
  • Christian McCaffrey is now within 0.07 FGW of Tyreek Hill in the MVP race (most total FGW). What’s surprising is Hill has arguably been the more consistent of the two players.
  • Jalen Hurts was not looking like a weekly winner at halftime – by my count he was at only 5.5 fantasy points. I saw quite a few “chances of winning” stats go nuts Sunday afternoon.
  • Kyren Williams is back. 74% started seems low, especially given how rough RB has been in 2023. Fun fact: Royce Freeman was started in 1% of leagues in Week 12.
  • There’s Tyreek! 0.19 FGW is his seventh-best week of the season. That’s right: On a below-average week, he was still the ninth best player to have in fantasy.

Who Lost Week 12?

# Player Pos Pts %St FGW
15 Amari Cooper WR 2.6 56% -0.11
14 Gus Edwards RB 4.2 58% -0.11
13 Lamar Jackson QB 16.0 100% -0.11
12 George Kittle TE 3.4 93% -0.12
11 Joe Mixon RB 7.0 84% -0.12
10 Dalton Schultz TE 0.7 71% -0.13
9 Jaylen Warren RB 5.7 82% -0.14
8 DK Metcalf WR 4.7 85% -0.14
7 Austin Ekeler RB 6.9 97% -0.14
6 Cooper Kupp WR 3.3 78% -0.15
5 Tua Tagovailoa QB 8.8 58% -0.15
4 Puka Nacua WR 4.7 95% -0.15
3 Saquon Barkley RB 5.7 95% -0.16
2 Adam Thielen WR 0.7 66% -0.16
1 Justin Fields QB 10.6 74% -0.17
  • Lamar Jackson is having a quietly painful season for fantasy purposes. He’s at -0.40 FGW for the year, fourth-worst among quarterbacks, despite having 0.29 in Week 7 alone.
  • George Kittle with quite the feast-or-famine season so far. He’s only scored between five and 18 points in two games this year.
  • Puka Nacua with his highest % Started umber of the season at 95% – and he pulls a 4.7 pointer. Ouch.
  • Cooper Kupp was at least only started 78% of the time, not 95% like he was for his 1.6 points in Week 11.
  • Justin Fields is having a painful season, albeit less quietly than Jacksin. He’s third-worst among quarterbacks with -0.43 for the year.

Week 12 Junior Varsity All-Stars

# Player Pos Pts %St bFGW
1 Blake Grupe K 19.0 0% 0.23
2 Tyler Higbee TE 17.4 7% 0.17
3 Pat Freiermuth TE 16.5 0% 0.17
4 Jordan Love QB 29.6 14% 0.16
5 Green Bay DEF 15.0 5% 0.16
6 Gabe Davis WR 19.5 6% 0.15
7 Rashee Rice WR 20.7 19% 0.15
8 Chicago DEF 14.0 0% 0.14
9 Cairo Santos K 14.0 2% 0.13
10 Christian Watson WR 17.9 8% 0.12
11 Zay Flowers WR 20.7 38% 0.12
12 Matthew Stafford QB 27.4 19% 0.11
13 Brandon McManus K 14.0 16% 0.11
14 Kyren Williams RB 35.4 74% 0.10
15 Jakobi Meyers WR 17.1 10% 0.10

*bFGW is the FGW total lost due to low percent started numbers. Essentially, points scored on fantasy benches or free-agent lists.

  • Blake Grupe is not a name I know well. He must have just wandered over to the JV field from the vacant lot over there.
  • In the battle of Tight Ends We All Know But Nobody Played, Tyler Higbee edges out Pat Freiermuth for most bench performance.
  • Jordan Love caps off a three-game stretch where his % Started never went above 14%, but he averaged 23.7 points. We’ve all forgotten his 5-pointer in Week 5 by now, right?
  • Mark my words: This will be the last time we see Zay Flowers with a % Started number at 38% for a long time, barring an injury.

Leaderboard Updates

Don’t Do It, Davis Managers

If you’re less into analysis and more into obscure references and memes, perhaps you’ll enjoy my weekly video!

If Gabe Davis‘ season seems especially normal to you, as in it feels like your players wait and see whether you start them before deciding to have a good day, just know you’re not alone. This is the plight of the fantasy football manager. Even so, I don’t recall a player being so perfectly frustrating to play as Davis has been this year. It’s been something to behold.

Hopefully your stretch run will be something to behold. Good luck in Week 13, and see you here next Wednesday.

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