Anyone who has been following along with the Fantasy Games Won (FGW) column is likely to reach a certain conclusion this time of year:
Shouldn’t the metric be Fantasy Championships Won?
The logic is simple: Fantasy Games Won compares favorably to Fantasy Points because it’s not about scoring fantasy points. It’s about fantasy wins. Then again, it’s actually not about winning games. It’s about winning championships.
This changes how you interpret FGW numbers in Weeks 15, 16 and 17. For example, say you had a quarterback and wide receiver whose fantasy teams made the playoffs at 60% and 40% rates, respectively. If you miss the playoffs, Weeks 15-17 mean nothing, so everything that the quarterback does in Week 15 — good or bad — is amplified in relation to the wide receiver.
A bad Week 15 means a lower active rate in Week 16, and the same in turn for Week 17.
I mention this all as an asterisk to the numbers this week. It will all come into play next week when we make the Fantasy Championships Won calculation. We will recap the Week 16 in the same format as before.
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
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- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Games Won (FGW)
I go over the FGW statistics in Week 8’s article. For a deeper dive, check out my blog. TL;DR: 0.15 = 15% increase in your chances of winning a fantasy matchup.
Breece’s Pieces
Breece is a great example of a player who, while he did great in Week 16, had a negative FGW score through the season so far.
| Week # | Player | Points | % Start | FGW | Cumulative FGW |
| Week 01 | Breece Hall | 15.2 | 19% | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Week 02 | Breece Hall | 0.9 | 74% | -0.19 | -0.18 |
| Week 03 | Breece Hall | 3.2 | 59% | -0.13 | -0.31 |
| Week 04 | Breece Hall | 8.4 | 11% | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| Week 05 | Breece Hall | 26.9 | 74% | 0.21 | -0.12 |
| Week 06 | Breece Hall | 17.8 | 83% | 0.08 | -0.03 |
| Week 07 | Breece Hall | 0.0 | 0% | 0.00 | -0.03 |
| Week 08 | Breece Hall | 18.3 | 96% | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| Week 09 | Breece Hall | 8.0 | 96% | -0.11 | -0.04 |
| Week 10 | Breece Hall | 9.0 | 99% | -0.10 | -0.13 |
| Week 11 | Breece Hall | 15.8 | 89% | 0.05 | -0.08 |
| Week 12 | Breece Hall | 8.4 | 81% | -0.09 | -0.17 |
| Week 13 | Breece Hall | 7.5 | 71% | -0.09 | -0.26 |
| Week 14 | Breece Hall | 22.6 | 58% | 0.12 | -0.14 |
| Week 15 | Breece Hall | 2.3 | 77% | -0.18 | -0.32 |
| Week 16 | Breece Hall | 37.1 | 85% | 0.35 | 0.03 |
Breece’s Week 16 was a surprisingly appropriate example of: If a tree falls in the woods in Week 16 and nobody is around to hear it, does it win you a matchup? Was Aaron Rodgers supposed to hear the tree fall? Clearly, the Jets had no backup plan, and maybe that’s why nobody heard the tree.
Who Won The Week?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 1 | Amari Cooper | WR | 46.0 | 78% | 0.37 |
| 2 | Breece Hall | RB | 37.1 | 85% | 0.35 |
| 3 | Puka Nacua | WR | 28.5 | 78% | 0.25 |
| 4 | Mike Evans | WR | 24.1 | 92% | 0.23 |
| 5 | Justin Jefferson | WR | 23.1 | 97% | 0.23 |
| 6 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 22.6 | 98% | 0.22 |
| 7 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 22.2 | 99% | 0.22 |
| 8 | Jason Sanders | K | 22.0 | 72% | 0.20 |
| 9 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 22.1 | 100% | 0.19 |
| 10 | Tee Higgins | WR | 22.5 | 83% | 0.19 |
| 11 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 22.0 | 96% | 0.18 |
| 12 | Calvin Ridley | WR | 22.8 | 72% | 0.17 |
| 13 | Derrick Henry | RB | 21.9 | 86% | 0.16 |
| 14 | Justin Tucker | K | 16.0 | 91% | 0.16 |
| 15 | Jake Elliott | K | 17.0 | 78% | 0.15 |
- Amari Cooper with the 50-burger in point per reception (PPR) formats in Week 16. Is this really the same Joe Flacco who looked like a lawn deer for the Jets last season? Is this really the same Browns team that lost to the same Flacco in Week 2 of 2022? Did I accidentally speak this game existence last week in my Night Before Christmas video by saying, “Cooper’s drafter arrived, albeit too late?” (I meant to imply scoring fantasy points too late — I was referring to Kupp, at least in my head.)
- Nacua Matata. Also, at 78% started, I hope the 22% who didn’t start Puka Nacua (or Amari, for that matter) benched him in the consolation bracket.
- Sneaky: ARSB is now top five for the season in total FGW. He’s behind only Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb and Keenan Allen.
- Derrick Henry is here to save the day. This might be the final push for Big Henry — he’s one attempt away from 2,000 career rushing attempts. Only Zeke has more carries among active running backs. Henry is 42nd all-time in attempts, but what I mean is a final big push of him winning fantasy matchups. I don’t think he’s about to retire. By the way, if you check out the all-time carries list, Emmitt Smith had 4,409 carries in his career. That record is low-key, never getting broken.
Who Lost The Week?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 15 | Josh Jacobs | RB | 0.0 | 41% | -0.11 |
| 14 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 3.0 | 59% | -0.12 |
| 13 | Jordan Addison | WR | 0.7 | 50% | -0.12 |
| 12 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 5.7 | 88% | -0.12 |
| 11 | Harrison Butker | K | 2.0 | 91% | -0.13 |
| 10 | Dustin Hopkins | K | 2.0 | 92% | -0.13 |
| 9 | Courtland Sutton | WR | 0.0 | 55% | -0.14 |
| 8 | Stefon Diggs | WR | 5.4 | 96% | -0.14 |
| 7 | Alvin Kamara | RB | 6.0 | 94% | -0.15 |
| 6 | Tony Pollard | RB | 4.8 | 89% | -0.16 |
| 5 | Travis Etienne | RB | 4.6 | 89% | -0.17 |
| 4 | James Cook | RB | 5.0 | 97% | -0.18 |
| 3 | DJ Moore | WR | 3.3 | 95% | -0.18 |
| 2 | Davante Adams | WR | 0.9 | 88% | -0.21 |
| 1 | Brock Purdy | QB | 2.4 | 62% | -0.22 |
- Brock Purdy may have indirectly just given a certain player both the fantasy and real-life MVP awards. Hint: The player rhymes with “Laugh-Free,” which is how Niners fans were on Christmas night.
- 0.9 from Davante Adams is especially brutal for the Christmas “morning” game. After finally having only his second above-average week in 11 games last week, he doomed a lot of his fantasy managers to a semifinals exit. Merry Christmas.
- After being as high as season-long RB2 by FGW as late as Week 11, Etienne has fallen off a cliff. He’s all the way down to RB7 with negative (below-average) weeks in both rounds of the playoffs.
Week 16 Junior Varsity All-Stars
*bFGW is the FGW total lost due to low percent started numbers. Essentially, points scored on fantasy benches or free-agent lists.
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | bFGW |
| 1 | George Pickens | WR | 33.5 | 20% | 0.31 |
| 2 | Las Vegas | DEF | 21.0 | 0% | 0.28 |
| 3 | DJ Chark | WR | 24.8 | 0% | 0.27 |
| 4 | Cameron Dicker | K | 21.0 | 0% | 0.27 |
| 5 | Gabe Davis | WR | 21.0 | 15% | 0.17 |
| 6 | Baltimore | DEF | 15.0 | 0% | 0.16 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay | DEF | 16.0 | 17% | 0.15 |
| 8 | Derek Carr | QB | 28.0 | 1% | 0.15 |
| 9 | New England | DEF | 15.0 | 11% | 0.15 |
| 10 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | 15.3 | 0% | 0.14 |
| 11 | Joe Flacco | QB | 27.8 | 8% | 0.14 |
| 12 | K.J. Osborn | WR | 18.0 | 0% | 0.13 |
| 13 | Chris Rodriguez | RB | 19.0 | 0% | 0.13 |
| 14 | Chase McLaughlin | K | 14.0 | 1% | 0.13 |
| 15 | Greg Zuerlein | K | 14.0 | 5% | 0.12 |
- Slim George Pickens with one of the best-benched fantasy performances of the season. Maybe fantasy owners just benched him because he didn’t want to get run up on while blocking.
- DJ Chark. That’s a name I haven’t typed up much since starting FGW in 2021. Next thing you know we’re going to see Devin Funchess come back and have a big week.
- One of the biggest missed opportunities this season has been a lack of appearances on these boards by Cameron Dicker, the kicker. I’m holding out for next year. Going to watch the Chargers preseason kicker battle very closely.
In the Hall of the Fantasy King
If you’re reading this, I’m going to go ahead and guess you’re still alive and are either in a fantasy championship, or you play in a preposterous league with two rounds of playoffs still to go. This column isn’t about advice, but I’ll leave you with this exercise I do for tough lineup decisions.
When you don’t know who to start, imagine it’s not your lineup but a friend’s lineup, and they’re asking you for advice on what to do. This will help you reframe and shed any biases you’ve built up during the season. It also helps to assume you’re giving advice to a friend you’d normally want to win. Short of this reframe, make the lineup decisions you can live with if they turn out incorrect.
Hopefully, you’ll have a fuller trophy room a week from now. Good luck in the championship. These chances don’t come around every year.
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