The NFL is giving DFS gamers the gift of a tripleheader on Christmas. The first two games have sizable spreads. Yet, the final game is an exciting showdown between two of the best teams in the NFL. The favored teams are heavily represented. Yet, the underdogs also have a few intriguing choices.
Week 16 Matchups
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -10.5
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Raiders Analysis: Michael Mayer was ruled out for this contest, leaving Austin Hooper as the team's healthy tight end. The tight ends haven't been heavily utilized for the Raiders. Nevertheless, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hooper was targeted on four of his 24 routes (16.7%) in Las Vegas's previous three games. Hooper doesn't have a high ceiling, but he's the cheapest viable option, with the minimum salary at DraftKings and a salary slightly higher than the minimum at FanDuel.
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs have a pass-first offense. In fact, according to RotoViz's pace app, Kansas City's 72% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 12 has been the highest mark by seven percent. Travis Kelce has traditionally been the top dog in Kansas City's passing attack, but Rashee Rice has surpassed him lately.
The rookie wide receiver has ascended to a full-time role by barbecuing opposing secondaries. In the last four weeks, Rice has led the Chiefs in targets (38), receptions (32), receiving yards (333) and receiving touchdowns (three). He can align anywhere.
However, the Chiefs have used him most as a jumbo slot. According to The 33rd Team, Rice has had a 61.1% slot rate this season. The big-bodied wideout has a favorable matchup from the slot. Per The 33rd Team, the Raiders have allowed the ninth-most DK (23.6) and tied for the sixth-most FD (19.4) points per game surrendered to slots since Week 12. Rice should feast, and the optimizer projects him to be the WR3 in DFS, with the WR3 value score (WR3V) at DK and the WR2V at FD.
The Chiefs have rotated wideouts this year, and it might be a collection of fresh faces playing critical snaps in this game since Skyy Moore is on injured reserve (IR), and Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman are also out. Justin Watson should have a secure role in the offense since he's run the team's third-most routes (101) since Week 12. In addition, Watson will have a good matchup as a field-stretching slot, aligning there 49.9% of the time this season.
Richie James is an intriguing punt. The diminutive veteran wide receiver will reportedly have an expanded role in the offense this week. James has aligned in the slot only 44.2% of the time this season, albeit on a tiny number of offensive snaps. He had an 84.5% slot rate last year, and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy specifically mentioned James's ability in the slot in the linked article about his expanding role.
Justyn Ross could also see some reps. He's run only 42 routes and converted them into six targets, three receptions and 34 scoreless yards. However, the young wideout is a big target in the red zone, standing 6-foot-4 and weighing 210 pounds. Ross also had a knack for earning targets in the preseason this year, netting 15 on 59 routes. It's most likely Ross doesn't contribute. Yet, he's a contrarian GPP selection on a slate with only three games.
Isiah Pacheco is the most exciting DFS option on the heavily favored Chiefs. He's returning from a two-week absence while recovering from shoulder surgery. The second-year pro might cede some touches to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but Jerick McKinnon is out.
Pacheco had 34 rush attempts for 165 rushing yards (82.5 per game), three rushing touchdowns, nine targets, eight receptions (4.0 per game) and 47 receiving yards (23.5 per game) in two games (Week 12 and Week 13) without McKinnon. Moreover, one of those games was against the Raiders, when he had 55 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, five receptions and 34 receiving yards.
The Chiefs are double-digit favorites at home. Thus, the defense should be able to pin their ears back and pile up sacks and turnovers when rookie Aidan O'Connell is in apparent passing situations.
Game: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -13.5
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Giants Analysis: Darius Slayton has led the Giants in routes (70) since Big Blue's bye in Week 13. He's had an unexciting six receptions for 77 receiving yards. Still, Slayton's route participation was outstanding.
He has a tasty matchup against Philadelphia's leaky secondary. Slayton has alignment rates of 51.4% in the slot and 43.3% wide this season. Since Week 12, the Eagles have allowed the seventh-most DK (18.8) and the fourth-most FD (16.6) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. They were worse against the slot, getting torched for the fourth-most DK (27.2) and FD (21.8) points per game. Slayton is an appealing punt at both providers and has the WR1V at DK.
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts hasn't been sharp from a real-life standpoint, completing under 60% of his passes in three of his previous four games and committing five turnovers against four passing touchdowns in that period. However, the dual-threat quarterback also ran for five touchdowns.
Hurts has produced multiple touchdowns in 12 of 14 games this season. The Brotherly Shove has made him a shoo-in to score from the one-yard line. Hurts's floor and ceiling are perfect for DFS. He's projected to be the highest scorer at both DFS providers this week.
A.J. Brown is projected to be the WR1 in DFS, with the WR1V at FD. Philadelphia's No. 1 wideout's immense ceiling was on full display from Week 3 through Week 8, when he had at least 127 receiving yards in each contest and averaged 8.2 receptions per game, 138.5 receiving yards per game and scored five touchdowns. Brown has scored a touchdown or exceeded 90 receiving yards in four of his six games since his six-game heater.
The matchup is optimal for Brown to erupt. According to PFF, the Giants have played man coverage at the fourth-highest rate this season. Brown has torched man coverage for 2.24 Y/RR.
Philadelphia's defense has played poorly enough for them to turn defensive play-calling duties over to Matt Patricia last week. Fortunately for them, the G-Men are a get-right matchup. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Tommy DeVito has a 17.9 sack%. Zach Wilson's 11.1 sack% is the highest among qualified quarterbacks this year.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -6.0
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Ravens Analysis: Odell Beckham has turned the clock back in recent start. In Baltimore's last four games, he's had 24 targets, 12 receptions (3.0 per game), 261 receiving yards (65.3 per game) and one touchdown reception on only 78 routes. OBJ's big-play ability and injury history make it easier to stomach his mediocre route participation.
The veteran wideout is a perimeter wide receiver, aligning there 77.7% of the time this season. His deployment is ideal for this matchup. San Francisco has allowed the sixth-most DK (19.2) and the seventh-most FD (14.2) points per game. Thus, OBJ has the WR2V at DK and the WR5V at FD.
Isaiah Likely has stepped up since Mark Andrews suffered a season-ending injury in Week 11. In Baltimore's last four games, Likely has run the second-most routes (135) on the team, parlaying his robust role into the third-most targets (18), the second-most receptions (14) and the second-most receiving yards (193) on the team while adding two touchdown receptions.
Likely, like OBJ, has a favorable matchup. The 49ers have yielded the fifth-most DK (16.3) and tied for the fifth-most FD (13.3) points per game allowed to tight ends since Week 12. The second-year tight end is the TE3 on Monday's NFL DFS main slate, with the TE1V at DK and the TE3V at FD.
Gus Edwards is the between-the-tackles grinder and the best bet to punch in a short touchdown. However, Justice Hill is the pass-catching complement and a change-of-pace runner. Since the Ravens are road underdogs, Hill could be busy if they're in a negative game script.
The matchup shouldn't dissuade gamers from using Hill. Since Week 12, the 49ers have allowed 79 rushing yards per game, 5.1 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 6.3 receptions per game and 37 receiving yards per game to running backs.
49ers Analysis: San Francisco's offense is a borderline unstoppable force. Brock Purdy and his quartet of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are each capable of a slate-breaking performance.
Still, CMC is the headliner as a cathedral-high ceiling and ridiculously high-floor player. The do-it-all back has had over 100 scrimmage yards in 14 of 17 games and scored at least one touchdown in 15 games this season. McCaffrey is a game-script-proof monster and the second-highest projected scorer on both DFS outlets.
Purdy isn't merely a game-manager, and Kyle Shanahan trusts his second-year quarterback. They've had a 60% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 12. The 2022 NFL Draft's Mr. Irrelevant is first in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (9.55 ANY/A) this season, an eye-popping 2.03 ANY/A ahead of the second-highest mark. He's also first in passing touchdowns (29) and fourth in passing yards per game (271.1).
Irrespective of salary, Purdy is my second-favorite quarterback option on this three-game slate against a pass-funnel defense. Baltimore's defense has faced a 61% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 12, tied for the eighth-highest mark. Moreover, Baltimore's offense can push the 49ers to keep their foot mashed on the accelerator.
Samuel and Aiyuk have tasty matchups when aligned wide or in the slot. Since Week 12, the Ravens have allowed the fourth-most DK (20.6) and the fifth-most FD (16.1) points per game to perimeter wideouts. They've also permitted slots 20.8 DK and 15.3 FD points per game. Samuel has aligned in the slot at a 68.8% rate this year, and Aiyuk has aligned there 68.4% of the time.
Samuel has outplayed Aiyuk lately. In San Francisco's four most recent games, Samuel has had 30 targets, 22 receptions, 392 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns, and Aiyuk has had 22, 16, 259 and two. Additionally, Samuel ran nine times for 49 yards and three touchdowns. Samuel is slightly ahead of Aiyuk when ranking them, but Aiyuk is equally capable of exploding against the Ravens.
Kittle isn't a slouch, either. In his last four games, he's had 20 targets, 12 receptions (3.0 per game), 217 receiving yards (54.3 per game) and one touchdown. The hyper-efficient tight end is a boom-or-bust selection, with four games under 20 receiving yards, two over 115 receiving yards, two with at least 76 receiving yards and a touchdown and one with three touchdowns this season. Kittle is tailor-made for GPPs.
The 49ers are favored at home and have the talent to sack the electrifying Lamar Jackson and force him into mistakes. San Francisco's defense is tied for the most turnovers forced and seventh in sacks (43). Finally, Jackson has the seventh-highest sack rate (7.8%) among quarterbacks this year and has turned the ball over 13 times.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
