Welcome to my Weekly DFS Cheat Sheet. If you love The Primer, my weekly fantasy football novella, you’ll thoroughly enjoy this cliff notes addition. For my in-depth thoughts on the players listed here, see the Primer for my full breakdowns, but if you’re a DFS degen like myself rifling through numerous lineups only minutes before lock, you’ll love this listicle of players I want to target for each game.
For site-specific plays, showdown captains, and more, let’s chat in the FantasyPros DFS Discord. Tag me with your DFS questions weekly. Let’s stack some cash this week.
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NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Wild Card Weekend (Saturday)
Saturday Slate
CLE vs. HOU
- Core Plays: Joe Flacco, C.J. Stroud, Devin Singletary, Amari Cooper, Nico Collins, David Njoku
- GPP Only: Xavier Hutchinson
MIA vs. KC
- Core Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Raheem Mostert, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
- GPP Only: Tua Tagovailoa, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Justin Watson, Noah Gray
Saturday Slate Core Plays
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco: We have already seen what this looks like. In Week 16, Flacco carved this secondary up with 368 passing yards (64.3% completion rate), 8.8 yards per attempt, three passing scores, and 26.8 fantasy points. Flacco has been playing with his hair on fire weekly. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, first in passing yards per game, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback, but he has also been threading the needle with some concerning deeper metrics. Among the same sample, he is 42nd in CPOE, 28th in highly accurate throw rate, and has the 14th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. I’m not forecasting this week as being the end of the line for the Flacco train, but I’m just highlighting that no one should be surprised if the wheels fall off inexplicably any week. Houston has been a Swiss cheese pass defense, giving up the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-most passing yards, and the ninth-highest CPOE since Week 12. They have also been vulnerable to the deep ball, allowing the 10th-highest CPOE and the second-most deep passing yards in that span.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary: The last time Singletary faced this run defense, he ran for 4.89 yards per carry, but he only had nine rushing attempts. He finished with 12 touches and 63 total yards. He is the Texans’ every down bellcow. Last week, he played 88% of the snaps with 25 touches and 65 total yards. Singletary ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. If Houston feeds him, he should finish with a juicy stat line. Since Week 12, Cleveland has bled out the highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (4.92). 51.4% of Singletary’s runs have been via gap plays.
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice: Since Week 12, Rice has been a stud ranking 13th in target share (25.2%), eighth in receiving yards per game (86.3), 10th in YPRR (2.77), and 15th in first-read share (30.3%). He was also ninth in fantasy points per route run. Over that span, Kansas City made it a point to force the ball to him as he was second in designed target rate (30.4%) and first in designed targets. Rice ranks seventh in red zone targets this season. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Rice has had a 30% TPRR and 3.27 YPRR. Since Week 13, Miami has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: Kelce was kept in check during their last meeting with only 14 receiving yards, but I don’t expect that to be the case this week. Kelce hasn’t surpassed 80 receiving yards since Week 14, and he hasn’t managed more than 20 PPR points since Week 7, so you can say that he’s due. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverage types, Kelce has led the team with a 21.3% target share and a 27% air-yard share while chipping in 2.18 YPRR. Miami has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards, the ninth-most fantasy points, and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
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