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13 Overvalued Dynasty Rookies to Avoid (Fantasy Football)

13 Overvalued Dynasty Rookies to Avoid (Fantasy Football)

As we gear up for the upcoming 2024 Fantasy Football season, we turn our attention to one of the most intriguing and unpredictable aspects of the game – the rookie class. Each year, a new wave of talent enters the NFL, brimming with the potential to take the fantasy world by storm. From highly touted prospects who are already making waves to under-the-radar talents poised for a breakout, our featured pundits have you covered. Here are overvalued dynasty rookies that our featured experts are avoiding in drafts.

2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Guide Overvalued Dynasty Rookies to Avoid

Overvalued Dynasty Rookies: Running Backs

Who is an overvalued rookie RB based on early rookie rankings that you’ll be avoiding in dynasty drafts and why?

Blake Corum (RB – LAR)

“This RB class isn’t exactly generational, but I’m likely avoiding Blake Corum as the RB3, even in the second round of rookie drafts. The Rams like Corum because he reminds them of current RB Kyren Williams, which I can see as well. From an NFL standpoint, that could be good news, but in terms of fantasy, I’m not sure I want to wait that long. Other players are going in that same range who I feel are more able to make an immediate impact.”
Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)

“Personally, I’ll be avoiding Blake Corum. Although he is an incredibly talented player, the Rams already have Kyren Williams. When you also add in that Rams head coach Sean McVay rarely trusts one running back to take a full workload, and it seems unlikely for Corum to become a player that is consistent enough to rely on.”
Trevor Land (FlurrySports)

“RB Blake Corum was a key piece for the National Champion Michigan Wolverines, but his outlook for the pros seems less rosy, imo. He’s undersized at 5’8″, 205 lbs. to handle a bell cow role. He’s also slow (40 time 4.53), which is not good considering he’s currently going off the board at rookie RB 3. In addition, Matthew Stafford is getting up there, and the Rams don’t have a succession plan in place yet to keep the offense rolling. Bottom line- when it comes to the draft and telling funny jokes, Ringo shows no interest in Blake Corum, or decorum, or pretty much any kind of Corum, haha!”
Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

“I can’t pull the trigger on Blake Corum in any of my rookie drafts. I get the college production – given his 27 rushing touchdowns last year – and I get the ‘headiness’ he brings to the table. I also appreciate that Kyren Williams is likely more the product of his elite situation than his skill. And still, Corum’s size should limit him in goal-line scenarios, while his pass-catching chops aren’t anything to get excited about. Corum is fine, but also likely a back who is easily replaced. As a potential product of the system, if he even gets the chance to be the guy, I’m out on him at his current mid-to-late second-round draft cost in rookie drafts.”
Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)

Will Shipley (RB – PHI)

Will Shipley has no business being the RB9 in the dynasty rookie rankings. He ranked 36th in the draft class among running backs in missed tackles forced, 82nd in yards after contact per attempt, 58th in yards after the catch per reception, and 57th in yards per route run in 2023 (per PFF). More importantly, the rookie won’t see the field unless Saquon Barkley gets hurt. Even if the superstar misses significant time, Shipley will split the backfield work with Kenneth Gainwell and lose all goal-line attempts to Jalen Hurts. I’ll happily draft Kimani Vidal (RB11 in the rankings) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB13) over Shipley.”
Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Audric Estime (RB – DEN)

Audric Estime is the RB8 in this rookie class according to ECR, but that’s too high for a guy who runs a 4.71 40-yard dash. Additionally, his path to playing time isn’t as clear as some think: Javonte Williams is now two years removed from a major knee injury and should be much closer to the player he once was. Meanwhile, the explosive Jaleel McLaughlin flashed playmaking ability as a rookie last season and has a firm grasp on a significant role in the offense. Estime boasts impressive college efficiency metrics, but he has a wide range of potential outcomes; not making the 53-man roster is definitely among them.”
Drew DeLuca (QB List)

MarShawn Lloyd (RB – GB)

“It seems that drafters are expecting MarShawn Lloyd to be the Green Bay Packers starting running back within a year, but it rather ignores that Lloyd isn’t particularly great at any one particular thing. Instead, he’s just solid at a lot of things, including both the ground game and the passing game. Lloyd fumbled eight times in three years in college and will need to clean that up, or it’ll be very hard for him to take snaps away from Josh Jacobs, who has 11 fumbles in 73 career games. Jacobs’s contract might not be watertight, but it’s not unusual for Green Bay to do contracts that way, and he could still be the RB1 for several years there.”
Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)

MarShawn Lloyd is being overvalued based on his 3rd-round draft capital despite a horrible landing spot in Green Bay behind Josh Jacobs and A.J. Dillon. I’d like to assume Lloyd can easily supplant Dillon as the No. 2 RB, but he never totally dominated a college backfield. His yards per play (2.4) is very poor compared to the rest of the RB class. Lloyd never surpassed 150 touches in any season, with only three games of 20+ touches. He also dealt with injuries consistently, which contributed to smaller workloads. Eight fumbles aren’t great for job security, either. I feel the Round 3/Day 2 draft capital is buoying Lloyd’s fantasy value to some extent, but I’m not sure that it’s warranted given that if Jacobs plays well in 2024, he will be back for Green Bay in 2025.”
Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Bucky Irving (RB – TB)

“None of the ADPs for the rookie running backs are particularly offensive, but I don’t need any Bucky Irving in my life. Irving was a productive college running back at Oregon with dual run-catch ability, but his athletic profile is dismal. Irving is undersized at 5-9, 192 pounds, and despite being a flyweight, he clocked a disappointing 4.55 at the NFL Scouting Combine. His Relative Athletic Score is just over 2 on a 10-point scale — not good. Irving is a poor pass blocker, and he landed with the Buccaneers, who already have an accomplished pass catcher at running back with Rachaad White. The Rams’ Kyren Williams has managed to succeed despite being undersized and relatively unathletic, but I’m not in the business of hunting unicorns in rookie drafts. ”
Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Jonathon Brooks (RB – CAR)

“This might be an unpopular answer, considering many had Jonathon Brooks as their RB1 of the class. But I am seeing him go as early as the 1.08 in rookie drafts. I get that he had a great year of production this past season. In his prior two seasons, he had a Bijan Robinson problem, but he could not beat out Roschon Johnson, who could not beat out Keontay Ingram in his freshman season. Brooks looked great on tape, but he also had a late injury that could derail him for possibly half the season. Now, modern medicine has changed the way athletes are able to heal from ACL injuries, but are we sure he is going to beat out Chuba Hubbard? Over the last 6 games Hubbard was averaging 20 carries per game. Brooks looked great in his one year of RB1 production, but can he repeat that year one in the pros? Plus, if he is unable to bounce back from the injury, then next year’s RB class is looking remarkable. I would rather take Trey Benson or Blake Corum in the 2nd round than Brooks in the first.”
Miguel ‘SC’ Romero (Fantasy Football Universe)

Overvalued Dynasty Rookies: Wide Receivers

Who is an overvalued rookie WR based on early rookie rankings that you’ll be avoiding in dynasty drafts and why?

Ricky Pearsall (WR – SF)

“Based on what we know today, Ricky Pearsall could be the fifth target-getter on the 49ers. I get that they’re a high-powered team, but until WR Brandon Aiyuk or WR Deebo Samuel gets moved, Pearsall isn’t likely to be all that fantasy-relevant this year. I like the talent, I just don’t like the price of an early second-round pick for him with that much yet to be determined.”
Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)

“One receiver I’ll be avoiding is Ricky Pearsall. Not only is it tough to see Pearsall getting many targets with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel still in San Francisco, but I think Jacob Cowing will be the better option long term as a player who thrives in the slot.”
Trevor Land (FlurrySports)

Ricky Pearsall is going at the end of the first round/early second round due to his first-round draft capital. I understand why people are flocking to him. On tape, he shows his great catch radius and ability to gain some yards after contact. However, the team has yet to trade Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk. Plus, they have a TE who has a solid connection with QB Brock Purdy, and they have one of the best catching backs of all time in Christian McCaffrey. My mind could change a bit if they trade Samuel or Aiyuk, but even then, Pearsall, at best, is still the target No. 4 on the team. I would rather draft Troy Franklin later, who was drafted in the fourth round but has a path at being the WR1 for his team.”
Miguel ‘SC’ Romero (Fantasy Football Universe)

Troy Franklin (WR – DEN)

Troy Franklin was the 17th wide receiver picked during the 2024 NFL Draft but is the WR11 in the dynasty rookie rankings for some reason. While he played with Bo Nix at Oregon, that doesn’t mean the rookie receiver will lead the team in targets this year or in the future. The Denver Broncos have Courtland Sutton (and his 10 touchdowns last season), Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Mims Jr. (a second-round pick last year) on the roster. If Franklin landed anywhere else in the NFL Draft as a fourth-round pick, he would be in the late teens in the dynasty rookie rankings. I’ll happily draft Javon Baker (WR16 in the rankings) and Jermaine Burton (WR14) over Franklin.”
Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Keon Coleman (WR – BUF)

“Seemingly, everyone is in love with Keon Coleman, a walking geyser of entertaining soundbites. However, while he has prototypical size, his speed (or lack thereof) leaves something to be desired from a guy who’ll attempt to create separation from NFL wide receivers while working on the outside against leveled-up defenders. A dip in college production during an injury-riddled 2023 is concerning, and his 4.61 40-yard dash was the second-slowest of any WR at the NFL combine. It was almost the exact same time posted several years ago by Kelvin Benjamin, another “contested catch” Florida State darling. Coleman moves better, so hopefully the parallels between them prove to be weak…but slower, big-bodied contested catch receivers don’t have a terrific NFL track record of late.”
Drew DeLuca (QB List)

Adonai Mitchell (WR – IND)

“Pre-draft reports from reputable insiders suggested AD (Adonai) Mitchell could be drafted as high as pick 20 overall, and the consensus opinion was he had enough upside to be drafted in round one, but this didn’t come to fruition with Mitchell sliding to pick 52, selected as the WR11 off the board. Mitchell is a big-bodied athlete who is a good route runner but fails to produce and doesn’t always play up to his size. Often, in the NFL, size is overvalued, and prospects are talked up too much for one quality when the lack of production is more important. Mitchell never topped 850 yards in college and only had one season above 500. Now he’ll face competition from Michael Pittman, who saw 10 targets per game in 2023, Alec Pierce, who played 94% of snaps last year, and Josh Downs, who had an 18% target share. Mitchell will have his moments, but expecting consistency in year one might be a stretch.”
Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)

Adonai Mitchell is a fade for me. The combination of size (6-2, 205) and speed (4.34) is dreamy, but Mitchell is a one-year college wonder whose best season at the University of Texas wasn’t especially mind-blowing (55-845-11 in 2023). Mitchell averaged under 2.0 yards per route run last season (a bad sign), and his landing spot was suboptimal. Rumored as a potential first-rounder, Mitchell slid into the second round and went to the Colts, who figure to be run-heavy with Anthony Richardson at QB and Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. WR Michael Pittman has been a target hog for the Colts, and Mitchell seems destined for the role previously occupied by Alec Pierce — a low-target deep threat. I’ll pass.”
Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC)

Ladd McConkey might be a good fantasy player; I just have doubts he’ll ever be a great one. He profiles as a slot WR, which I admit has some value in PPR formats. But McConkey is not the biggest or strongest guy. I doubt he’ll be featured in the red zone, which will probably keep a ceiling on his TD totals, especially on the Chargers, who want to run the ball. McConkey’s current price tag at rookie WR 5 is too rich for McRingo. I mean I should at least get a side of fries and a drink at that price haha!”
Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Xavier Legette (WR – CAR)

“I have zero shares of Xavier Legette after most of my rookie drafts have concluded. Legette is an intriguing prospect, especially given that he hasn’t played the wide receiver position for long. But given the struggles Bryce Young endured last year and the complete turnover the Panthers completed in just one offseason on offense, it’s hard to envision that a project at the position will be the guy to break out in year 1. We also know how owner David Tepper has interfered in the process in years past, so it’s possible that Legette is not the guy new head coach Dave Canales was hoping for. With everything as it stands today, I’m not comfortable paying an early-to-mid second-round rookie pick to find out if Legette can buck the odds and become a true fantasy asset.”
Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)

Roman Wilson (WR – PIT)

Roman Wilson’s standout senior year at Michigan culminated in a 37% dominator rating, as he gathered 48 receptions for 789 yards and 12 touchdowns, marking it as the 6th-highest single-season dominator rating in the 2024 class. But it comes with concerns, including his late breakout age at 22 years old and the fact that he could only muster one legitimate year of production. Also, his lack of overall counting stats was due to the run-heavy offense he played as Michigan’s deep threat. According to Sports Info Solutions, 53% of his routes ran were downfield. Given that the Steelers offense projects to be extremely run-heavy after the hiring of OC Arthur Smith – in addition to the draft selections of OL Zach Frazier and OL Troy Fautanu – I’m finding it hard to be excited about Wilson for fantasy purposes. Fading a Steelers mid-round WR selection is always a risky proposition, but I’m not finding many ways where not drafting Wilson buries in me in 2024.”
Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

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