In the world of fantasy football, the platform you draft on can significantly influence your strategy. Drafters tend to be anchored to a site’s player rankings. Each site-be it ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, NFL Fantasy, or Sleeper-has its own Average Draft Position (ADP) trends, impacting player values and positional priorities. For example, Best Ball formats often favor wide receivers, while traditional leagues lean more towards running backs in the earlier rounds.
To uncover these nuances, I conducted several 12-team mock drafts on each platform and through FantasyPros Draft Wizard Mock Draft Simulator. This article dives into the ADP variances across these popular sites, sharing insights and strategies to help you dominate your league, no matter where you draft.
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Variance
ESPN
I conducted two mock drafts using FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Simulator and one regular mock draft on the ESPN platform itself. Note that when I used the Draft Simulator the second time, I checked off only the ESPN ADP and ESPN pre-draft rankings settings to get a more accurate reading on the ESPN 2024 fantasy football landscape. If you want to practice drafting against ESPN ADP, follow the same settings.
Main takeaways:
- In both draft simulations, RBs went much earlier than I anticipated. As a result, my overall RBs were lackluster.
- In the first simulation, Kyle Pitts was drafted in Round 10, David Njoku in Round 11, and Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, and Brock Bowers in Round 12. Late in the draft, many tight-end values were available.
- The best value picks (versus ECR) included Deebo Samuel, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Amari Cooper. This aligns with Samuel and Cooper’s egregiously low ADPs on the ESPN platform.
What did Amari Cooper do to ESPN?
ADP 70th overall…
Or Christian Kirk?
ADP 86th overall…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 26, 2024
- In terms of strong reaches, nothing stood out because it was mostly on players going in the “sleeper” range. Once we get outside the top seven rounds, go get your guys. The one standout is Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks, who was selected 61st overall at the beginning of the sixth round. RBs go like hotcakes in this more traditional league format.
- In the second simulation, there was another pocket of tight ends that were drafted very late. And although Cooper and Samuel weren’t drafted super late, another WR fell to the wayside in Christian Kirk. Kirk’s ADP is 86th overall on ESPN…
- All in all, the majority of WRs that I listed on this thread (see below), such as Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, etc., were extreme values among WRs much later in the draft. Terry McLaurin and Keenan Allen also fell.
The best fantasy football draft VALUES????
To Win Your League in 2024…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 26, 2024
- Reaches were the same story. Jonathon Brooks went in Round 6, and Derrick Henry was a high-end second-rounder. The Big Dog’s ADP is 16th overall.
- In the final mock draft that was conducted on the ESPN platform, we had a similar run out with RBs going up the board.
- Kyren Williams – 13th overall
- Derrick Henry – 15th overall
- Travis Etienne – 19th overall
- Isiah Pacheco – 20th overall
- Joe Mixon – 21st overall
- James Cook – 26th overall
- Alvin Kamara – 31st overall
- Rachaad White – 35th overall
- Kenneth Walker – 40th overall
- Rhamondre Stevenson – 42nd overall
- Javonte Williams – 46th overall
- Aaron Jones – 50th overall
- Jonathon Brooks – 59th overall
- Zamir White – 69th overall
- Jaylen Warren – 74th overall
- I think Cook, Walker, Stevenson, Williams and Brooks are the most glaring ones.
- As a result, WRs such as Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Pickens, Amari Cooper and Terry McLaurin fell from Round 3 onward.
- I drafted Puka 17th overall. A steal.
- Amari Cooper went in Round 7. As did Christian Kirk and Diontae Johnson.
- Jayden Reed went 92nd and Jaxon Smith-Njigba went outside the top 100. As did a plethora of other rookie WRs…
- More late-round TEs and premier late-round QBs from Rounds 10 onward were available. All my favorite late-round sleeper QBs are going late on ESPN.
Want Jayden Reed?
90th overall on ESPN.
How about Hollywood Brown?
98th overall on ESPN.
Diontae Johnson?
95th overall on ESPN.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 26, 2024
- Other noticeable misprices per ESPN ADP (not including rookies): Devin Singletary, Luke Musgrave, Wan’Dale Robinson, Joshua Palmer, Dontayvion Wicks, Curtis Samuel, Hollywood Brown, Hunter Henry and Rico Dowdle.
ESPN
- RBs Dominate Early: RBs are drafted earlier than expected, leading to lower-tier RBs on many rosters.
- Tight End Value: Players like Kyle Pitts, David Njoku, and Brock Bowers offer excellent late-round value.
- Notable WR Values: Deebo Samuel, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Amari Cooper are undervalued, making them great picks.
- Reaches: RBs like Jonathon Brooks are picked surprisingly early.
Understanding these platform-specific ADP trends can give you a strategic edge in your drafts. Based on each platform’s tendencies, adapt your strategy to exploit undervalued players and secure key positions.
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