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Fantasy Football Storylines: DeVonta Smith, Jordan Love, J.K. Dobbins (Week 11)

Week 11’s first contest has the unenviable task of following last week’s thrilling Thursday Night Football shootout between the Ravens and Bengals. Fortunately, the Eagles and Commanders have ample fantasy options and the potential for a fun showing, too. An NFC North squad coming out of their bye will be interesting to track this week. Finally, an AFC West team was trending in one offensive direction before reversing course in Week 10. What will they look like in Week 11?

Fantasy Football Storylines

What Can Gamers Expect From the NFC East Showdown on Thursday Night?

Philadelphia’s offense is on fire. The Eagles have scored 34, 28, 37 and 28 points in their previous four games. Jalen Hurts has erupted. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hurts completed 74.4% of his 78 pass attempts for 782 yards, six touchdowns, one interception, nine big-time throws and three turnover-worthy plays in those games. He also ran 37 times for 182 yards and eight touchdowns. Hurts might be the overall QB1 for the rest of the year.

Can Jayden Daniels keep up? The rookie wunderkind is coming off his worst non-injury-shortened start of the year. Pittsburgh’s stifling defense held him to a 50.0% completion rate on 34 attempts. Daniels passed for 202 scoreless yards and ran just three times for five yards. The Eagles are another challenging matchup this week. Daniels’s dual-threat abilities make him a must-use starter. Nevertheless, gamers should temper expectations for Daniels this week.

A.J. Brown is a no-brainer elite fantasy option. DeVonta Smith is a more volatile option. He’s sandwiched two duds around two efforts of 80-plus receiving with a touchdown since Week 7. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 7, Smith has had a 90.7% route participation rate, 27.0% air-yard share, 21.0% target share, 0.18 targets per route run, 30.8% first-read percentage, two end zone targets, 13 receptions (3.25 per game), 184 receiving yards (46.0 per game), 1.90 yards per route run, two touchdowns and 7.1 expected half-point point per reception (half PPR) points per game.

Smith began the week with an estimated non-participation in practice with a hamstring injury. He did the same last week before suiting up. The quicker turnaround might be suboptimal for his hamstring injury. Still, Smith’s a viable WR3 or flex for most rosters.

Dallas Goedert was also listed as a non-participant in practice with an ankle injury after returning from a hamstring injury. His status will warrant monitoring. He’s a fringe TE1 in Philadelphia’s loaded offense.

Saquon Barkley was the victim of Hurts scoring multiple rushing touchdowns against the Cowboys and the game getting out of hand. He has another favorable matchup this week and should return to top-shelf form.

Things are less straightforward for the Commanders. Will Brian Robinson return this week? According to Pro Football Reference, the Eagles have held opposing running backs to just 85.3 rushing yards and 0.22 rushing touchdowns per game. So, gamers can be excused for sitting B-Rob this week if he suits up. The Eagles have also permitted just 5.56 receptions and 29.2 receiving yards per game and zero receiving touchdowns to running backs, depressing the value of Austin Ekeler as Robinson’s pass-catching complement or as the fill-in starter if Robinson is out. Ekeler’s a desperation RB2 or flex play if Robinson is out and a non-option if Robinson is active.

Terry McLaurin is a locked-in starter with juicy underlying data. Sadly, Zach Ertz is a non-option this week. The Eagles haven’t allowed a touchdown to tight ends this year and held them to 4.11 receptions and 36.9 receiving yards per game.

Noah Brown isn’t a starting option in most leagues. However, in 14-team leagues, he’s useful despite the challenging matchup. In Washington’s previous four games, Brown’s had a team-high 73.5% route participation, 24.7% air-yard share, 16.0% target share, 0.19 targets per route run, 20.0% first-read percentage, 12 receptions (3.0 per game), 182 receiving yards (45.5 per game), 1.82 yards per route run, one touchdown and 9.5 expected half PPR points per game.

What Will the Packers Look Like Out of Their Week 10 Bye?

Jordan Love was hobbled with a groin injury when we last saw the Packers drop a game to the Lions at rainy Lambeau Field in Week 9. Will Love look better coming out of the bye?

The Packers could open up the passing attack more if Love is healthier. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Green Bay had a 64% situation-neutral pass rate against the Eagles in Week 1 but only 50% in Love’s six starts from Week 4 through Week 9.

Josh Jacobs has thrived in his first season with the Packers, and even if they crank up the pass out of their bye, he’s an RB1. The wide receiver rotation is perhaps the most significant question out of the bye.

In Green Bay’s final four games before the bye, Romeo Doubs (80.0% route participation) and Jayden Reed (70.0% route participation) were the only wideouts with a route participation of 70.0% or higher. Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks cannibalized each other’s playing time, with the former sporting a 57.9% route participation and the latter tallying a 33.6% route participation from Week 6 through Week 9. Will that rotation persist after the bye, or will Matt LaFleur tweak the rotation after spending Week 10 self-scouting? Gamers with an open bench spot could do worse than stashing Watson or Wicks to see if one emerges as the preferred WR3.

While Green Bay’s wide receiver room is cloudy, Tucker Kraft is the unquestioned top tight end. Since Week 6, he’s second on the Packers in route participation (78.6%). The second-year pro isn’t an elite tight end, but he’s in the TE1 mix.

Are the Chargers Back to a Ground-and-Pound Squad?

Before Los Angeles’s Week 5 bye, the Chargers were tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (52%). In four subsequent games, they had the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%).

The table was set for them to air it out against the pass-funnel Titans in Week 10. Instead, Justin Herbert dropped back only 24 times and attempted 18 passes. LA’s running backs had 27 rush attempts against Tennessee, and Derius Davis also ran once. The game was close until the Chargers expanded their lead to 10 points with 3:24 in the third quarter. So, the heavy rushing workload wasn’t because of a favorable game script.

Gus Edwards was activated from the Injured Reserve (IR) and had 10 rushes for a team-high 55 yards. Did Edwards’ return prompt offensive coordinator Greg Roman to return to his comfort zone of pounding the rock? J.K. Dobbins also had 15 rushes for 50 yards, three targets, three receptions and five receiving yards in Week 10.

Dobbins’s value might have taken a hit with the return of the Gus Bus. Yet, Dobbins played 39 snaps and ran 17 routes versus 14 and two for Edwards and five and two for Hassan Haskins. It’s not time to push the panic button on Dobbins yet, especially if the Chargers continue to run the ball at a high clip. Taking some work off his plate could also help Dobbins stay healthy, albeit at the cost of reducing his weekly ceiling.

Herbert’s, Ladd McConkey‘s and Quentin Johnston‘s value will take a hit if Roman calls a run-heavy offense. Still, Roman’s shown a willingness to cut Herbert loose a few games this year. This week will be a critical data point against Cincinnati’s defense. The Bengals are much softer against the pass than the run.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Bengals have allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game (220.2) and tied for the sixth-most passing touchdowns (17). Cincinnati’s also allowed the 16th-most rushing yards per game (127.3). However, the rushing numbers allowed were inflated by quarterback rushing, which is unsurprising since they’ve faced Lamar Jackson twice. The Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards per game (33.6) to quarterbacks this year but held running backs to 91.0 rushing yards per game at 4.1 yards per carry.

The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites in a game with a total of 47.0 points, leaving them with an implied total of 24.25 points. This game has shootout potential, increasing the appeal of starting Herbert, McConkey and even Johnston as a desperation play. Obviously, it would be easier to stomach using them if the Chargers didn’t pump the brakes on opening up the passing game in Week 10. Still, the environment should be favorable.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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