As fantasy football continues to explode in popularity, one of the most popular topics of discussion is draft strategies. You’ve probably heard of some of these strategies: Zero RB, Elite Tight End, Hero RB, Late-Round QB, the list goes on.
But there’s one strategy that every fantasy football manager is taking advantage of, even if they don’t realize it. That strategy is Value-Based Drafting (VBD). In this article, I’ll explain the basics of this strategy, its different variations, its limitations and how best to use it to help dominate your draft. Without further ado, let’s get into it.
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Value-Based Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
Value-Based Drafting Strategy Basics
The basic idea of Value-Based Drafting is simple; it’s right there in the name. Draft players based on their value, not just their projected points. A simple example of this, and why I argue that all fantasy managers are utilizing at least some VBD principles, is the issue of quarterbacks.
In most traditional fantasy scoring formats, quarterbacks score the most points. A glance at our 2025 fantasy football projections shows that Ja’Marr Chase is the highest-projected non-quarterback with 283.3 half-PPR points. Meanwhile, there are 12 quarterbacks projected to score more than that many points. But the first round of every fantasy draft isn’t entirely quarterbacks.
In fact, despite universally being the highest projected players, quarterbacks normally last longer on the draft board than the other key positions (with the potential exception of tight end). This is because managers are using VBD principles by considering positional limits and relative scarcity, not just total projected points, when making their selections.
The key to VBD is that fantasy players don’t exist in a vacuum. Each player’s value is determined not just by their situation and projection, but by the situation and projections of other players (especially those at the same position). When selecting a player for your team, you have to consider how many points you expect them to score compared to the other options at the same position. This common-sense logic is the backbone of VBD strategies, and there are multiple ways it can be applied to help you optimize your drafting.
Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)
One of the most popular ways to think about VBD is to consider each player’s Value Over a Replacement Player (VORP). A “replacement player” is the best player at a given position that one can expect to be on the waiver wire. If you know your league’s size and roster settings, you can fairly easily estimate who will be that replacement player at each position. You can then use projections to create a numerical value for each player’s VORP.
Let’s look again at Chase for an example. As mentioned, he is projected to score 283.3 half-PPR points this season. To find a replacement receiver, we must consider how many wide receivers will be rostered across the entire league.
Let’s assume, for a 12-team league, there are 64 wide receivers rostered (5.3 per team). The replacement player is then the 65th-highest-projected wide receiver. In this case, that’s Chargers rookie Tre Harris, with a projection of 114.2 half-PPR points. Subtracting Chase’s projected total from Harris’ gives us the Cincinnati superstar’s VORP: An unsurprisingly massive 169.1 half-PPR points.
For comparison, let’s look at Lamar Jackson, FantasyPros’ highest-projected quarterback with 371.1 points. Even if we assume that all 12 teams roster one starting quarterback and one backup (which isn’t likely), our replacement-level quarterback, Bryce Young, is projected to score a respectable 244.4 points. That makes Jackson’s VORP 126.7 points — an excellent number, but a far cry from Chase. This difference, even if most managers aren’t running the numbers, is why elite quarterbacks tend to be drafted after their wide receiver and running back counterparts.
Value Over Last Starter (VOLS)
VORP is the most commonly used type of Value-Based Drafting, but it isn’t perfect. After all, you’re not drafting a player like Chase because he’s better than Harris. You’re drafting him because you expect him to give you a huge advantage over every other team’s starting wide receivers. This is where Value Over Last Starter (VOLS) can be useful.
Like VORP, we can calculate a numerical VOLS value for every player. Sticking with the example of Chase in a 12-team league, let’s assume for simplicity’s sake that this league’s starting lineup has three receiver slots and no Flex.
That means 36 wide receivers will be starting across this fantasy league every week, making the WR36 the last starter. In this case, that player is Jaylen Waddle, with 157.3 projected half-PPR points. Some more subtraction, and we see that Chase’s VOLS is 126 points.
Here, quarterbacks fall behind even further. Most leagues only allow for one quarterback to be started per team each week. Because the 12th quarterback (Dak Prescott) has a very healthy projection, Jackson’s VOLS is just 85 points. That’s 39% lower than Chase’s, where Jackson’s VORP was just 29% lower.
Value Over Next Available (VONA)
One final helpful way to think about player value when drafting is Value Over Next Available (VONA). This approach is slightly more complicated than VORP or VOLS, as it can’t be calculated before your draft. Instead, each player’s VONA is a constantly shifting number that allows you to adjust your approach based on the flow of your draft room.
Essentially, VONA represents how many more points you expect a given player to score than the best player you expect to be available at that position at your next draft slot. While I don’t recommend actively trying to calculate VONA during a draft, thinking about your selections in terms of VONA will help you to take advantage of tiers and trends in your draft.
For example, let’s say you have the second-overall pick and are deciding between Justin Jefferson and Saquon Barkley. Perhaps Jefferson has a higher VORP and VOLS. However, you know that your league mates love drafting running backs.
If you select Jefferson now, the best running back available to you at the end of the second round will likely be a high-end RB2, like Kenneth Walker. But if you select Barkley, you expect you will be able to grab a still-elite wide receiver, like A.J. Brown. By subtracting the projected points of your second-round options at each position from the projections of your 1.02 options, we see that Barkley’s VONA is 68.4, while Jefferson’s is just 39.4.
Of course, there’s no rule that you have to start your draft with one wide receiver and one running back through two rounds. Things get trickier if you then begin to compare Brown’s VONA against Walker’s, or even consider other positions. This is one reason why I don’t recommend calculating specific VONA values. Instead, simply stopping to consider which players will be available at each position in the next round (or further on in the draft) will allow you to reap the benefits of VONA drafting.
Limitations of Value-Based Drafting
Although it’s an important tool in any fantasy manager’s arsenal, VBD is not a panacea. Checking out our Value-Based Drafting rankings is a must before drafting a team, but I don’t recommend you simply draft the player with the top VBD score in every round.
For one, relying solely on VBD without considering your league and draft environment will often lead to the creation of unbalanced teams. If your league is as thirsty for running backs as my longest-running home league, simply drafting by VBD will leave you with a roster of nothing but wide receivers. Sometimes, you have to take a hit in terms of “value” to fill positions in your starting lineup.
More importantly, a 100% VBD-based strategy would be missing the forest for the trees. All of the numerical VBD values I have discussed in this article (VORP, VOLS, VONA) are based on one thing: Projections. This exposes them to many flaws.
Any good fantasy analyst will tell you not to draft players just off projections. Projections represent a player’s median outcome, and fantasy leagues aren’t won by median outcomes. Jakobi Meyers‘ median outcome (and therefore projection) might be higher than Travis Hunter‘s. But Hunter’s ADP is nearly two full rounds higher, for good reason.
If the second-overall pick hits his ceiling, Hunter could finish the season as a weekly WR1, a league-winning player. That’s simply not in the cards for Meyers, even in his best possible season. A pure VBD team will result in your roster being full of players like Meyers. These safe veterans do have value, but you certainly don’t want a team full of them.
The way projections are used to calculate VORP and VOLS can also result in some misleading conclusions. I mentioned earlier that Prescott is currently considered the last starter for quarterbacks, as he has the 12th-highest projection at the position. But let’s consider some of the names behind him: Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Jordan Love, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and even Tua Tagovailoa. It’s essentially guaranteed that one of these players will exceed Prescott’s projection of 286.2 points. Prescott himself could also return to his 2023 form and easily outplay that number.
Standard VORP, VOLS and VONA calculations compare two players at a time, focusing on season-long projections. But if you choose to wait to select your quarterback, you aren’t forced to start Prescott for 17 weeks. You can select multiple of these high-upside options and stay active on the waiver wire. With even a little luck, you will eventually find a breakout star who projects a lot closer to Jackson weekly than Prescott does right now.
This applies even more at positions like running back, where injuries can turn replacement players into weekly studs. Tyler Allgeier might project as the RB49 right now, but he will be a weekly RB2 if Bijan Robinson misses time. A single-number VORP or VOLS calculation doesn’t take into account the upside that can be found by an active manager accumulating multiple replacement level options.
When & How to Use Value-Based Drafting
Despite these limitations, the principles of VBD are still hugely valuable for fantasy football managers. This is especially true in the early rounds of drafts. At this stage, every player has league-winning upside and should be treated as a weekly starter, so relying on median projection isn’t robbing you of too much nuance. If you aren’t sure whether to select a running back or a wide receiver with your first pick, turning to VORP, VOLS and VONA is a great way to break a tie.
I also like to use VBD reasoning not to evaluate individual players, but to consider positional strategies. Again, the most obvious example of this in action is at the quarterback position. In normal-sized 1-QB leagues, there will be reliable quarterback production available at the end of drafts and even on waivers.
The same can’t be said for running backs, wide receivers and even tight ends (if only because reliable tight end production is an oxymoron). The principles and calculations of VBD illuminate this difference very clearly.
Analysis of VBD is also especially helpful if you are drafting for an unusual format, or one you aren’t too familiar with. In a 10-team PPR league with just two wide receiver spots, one Flex and shallow benches, a glance at VORP numbers will show that there will likely be usable wide receivers available on waivers. This means you should prioritize difference-making players at the position, but fade WR3 or even WR2 types who don’t project meaningfully better than commonly available options.
Conversely, a Superflex or two-tight end league will mean less available production at normally plentiful positions. This may seem obvious to veteran managers, but using VORP or VOLS to quantify the impact of format changes is still a helpful exercise.
At its core, Value-Based Drafting can be seen as a series of comparisons between two pairs of players. Each pair consists of one player you are considering drafting and a less-valuable player at that same position — that second player can be a waiver option (VORP), a replacement-level starter (VOLS) or the best option in the next round (VONA).
With VBD, it suggests you should always draft the player in the pair that projects for more points. While I don’t recommend dogmatically following this process, thinking about your drafting decisions in this way will help maximize your team’s value… and, therefore, your chances of raising that sweet, sweet trophy.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
