Not every early-round pick lives up to the hype. In fact, some of the biggest names in fantasy football end up being major disappointments based on where they’re drafted. To help you avoid costly mistakes in your 2025 fantasy football drafts, we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros to spotlight the worst value picks by current ADP. Whether it’s due to injury risk, team situation, or inflated expectations, these players carry more downside than their draft position suggests. Before you’re on the clock, make sure you know which names to think twice about.
Worst Fantasy Football Draft Picks: Wide Receivers
Who is the worst value pick at WR based on his current ADP and why?
Nico Collins (WR – HOU): WR7, ADP 12
“I’m struggling to pick a WR here, but I’ll go with Nico Collins for this one. WR7 is pretty rich for a guy with a history of missing games due to injury on a team that was underwhelming last year as a whole. Not to mention that Collins was a stud before he got injured and much less stellar when he came back. Which Collins will you be drafting this year? There’s no way to tell, but I’d rather pass on him at this cost and avoid the mess altogether.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA): WR15, ADP 28
“There are a lot of variables to consider when assessing what on earth to think of Tyreek Hill in 2025. One, will the Dolphins open up the offense after De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith feasted a year ago, post-concussion, for Tua Tagovailoa? Second, what version of Tyreek Hill are fantasy managers (and the Dolphins) going to get? It wasn’t a certainty that Hill would even return to Miami after he did his best to signal to the team he wanted out after the end of last season. Sure, those fires seem to be out, but for how much longer will they be out? There is too much risk associated with Hill to be taking him anywhere near top 15 WR status.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA): WR16, ADP 31
“The clear answer is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Regardless of stats from last year, he now moves to the X role in a new offense that will move to the run game more than last year. We will also have a new quarterback running the show on a struggling offense. At 20th overall, you are wasting an early pick, which is ultimately doom days for your team.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)
“In seventeen games last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had over 100 yards only three times and scored six TDs. Njigba just doesn’t have the speed or burst to generate big plays. He’s a slot WR, which is great in PPR leagues, but not as valuable in Half PPR settings. And while the departures of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett leave a vast amount of targets there for the taking, Seahawks’ new starting QB, Sam Darnold, gives Ringo reason for pause when it comes to Smith-Njigba’s fantasy outlook. Darnold laid an egg last year in the playoffs for the Vikings, and that was in the weather-controlled dome of State Farm Stadium, not outdoors in the rain and sleet of the Pacific Northwest. Smith-Njigba’s current lofty ADP at WR16 is way too risky for Mark Ringo.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI): WR19, ADP 35
“I struggle to see the avenue where Marvin Harrison Jr. is a top 20 wide receiver this season (WR19 via current ADP). Last year, Harrison Jr. finished as the WR39 in fantasy points per game and the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game. After such a disappointing first year, we’re left wondering, entering year two, “Can Harrison live up to last year’s hype and breakout in 2025?” I’ll start by saying I’m doubtful, and I’ll likely remain below consensus on him entering the year, but there’s a pathway for it to happen. Ok, let’s get back to 2024. In Weeks 1-9, Arizona deployed Harrison Jr. primarily as a downfield receiver, with only 29.9% of his routes being horizontal breaking routes and 49.6% of them being vertical breaking routes. In that sample, he drew a 21.4% target share (32nd) with 49.4 receiving yards per game (43rd), a 28.2% first-read share (29th), 0.093 first downs per route run (36th), and 1.97 yards per route run (38th, per Fantasy Points Data). This was a horrible game plan by Arizona’s coaching staff. Last year, Harrison Jr. ranked 84th and 51st in vertical route-breaking separation and route win rate, as opposed to 16th and 19th in those categories when it came to horizontal-breaking routes. The good thing for Harrison Jr. is that in Weeks 10-18, his horizontal route % climbed to 41.4%, while vertical breaking routes made up 38.5% of his usage. The problem is that in Weeks 10-18, his numbers didn’t improve; instead, they actually worsened with the usage change. He had a 20.6% target share (33rd), 55 receiving yards per game (37th), a 27.1% first-read share, 0.078 first downs per route run, and 1.56 yards per route run. His late-season usage and per-route numbers with horizontal routes offer hope, but his declining efficiency with the usage change muddles the 2025 waters. Harrison is a tough player to get excited about, especially with a WR2 price tag attached to his name.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
DJ Moore (WR – CHI): WR21, ADP 41
“Many were afraid to draft DJ Moore last year after the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze in the offseason. However, the former Maryland star finished the year as the WR16, averaging 11.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing on a dysfunctional offense. Unfortunately, fantasy players should avoid drafting Moore at his WR21 ADP. The veteran wide receiver will have even more target competition this season than last year after Chicago used their top two picks in the 2025 NFL Draft on Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. More importantly, don’t be surprised if Ben Johnson makes the Bears a run-first offense after having success with that mindset in Detroit. Fantasy players should target DK Metcalf, Tetairoa McMillan, and Xavier Worthy with a later ADP over Moore.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA): WR22, ADP 46
“DK Metcalf is a great player who landed in perhaps the worst possible setup this side of Cleveland. The current iteration of Aaron Rodgers adds nothing to Metcalf’s value; I’d even suggest it subtracts a bit because it minimizes his deep-threat capabilities. Add in Arthur Smith calling plays, and your biggest hope should be that Metcalf transitions to a backup tight end or something, since those get preferential treatment in a Smith offense. He’s going off the board at 46, and late in the Round 4 doesn’t seem THAT bad. But I don’t see much value, all the same.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN): WR25, ADP 50
“I’m skeptical about the projections and ADP of Broncos top WR Courtland Sutton. Last year, the Broncos had pretty much no one around him, no real threat from the running game, and Sutton benefited to the tune of a career high 135 targets. If Devaughn Vele stays healthy through camp, his role is set to grow. They added TE Evan Engram in free agency and RB RJ Harvey in the draft. Bo Nix will have a much deeper set of weapons in 2025 and won’t need to look to Sutton so much. Without as much volume, he’s a riskier pick at the top of Round 5 over several WRs I’d rather draft.”
– Justin Frye (Pro Football Network)
Jameson Williams (WR – DET): WR27, ADP 52
“Jameson Williams finished WR27 or higher 3 times in the last 9 games of the season for the Lions. Williams finished as WR40 or worse 3 times in the last 9 games of the season. He is being drafted as WR27 right now. He is creeping into WR2 territory. Do you feel comfortable with him being your WR2? I didn’t think so.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Chris Godwin (WR – TB): WR31, ADP 60
“It’s hard to see Chris Godwin returning a profit for at a price of WR31, No. 60 overall. Yes, Godwin was WR1 in PPR scoring through the first six weeks of 2024, with him and Mike Evans commanding an enormous share of Tampa Bay team targets to that point, but so much has changed. Godwin dislocated his ankle in gruesome fashion in Week 7. Effects of the injury could linger, and it’s possible he won’t be ready for Week 1. The Buccaneers spent a first-round pick on WR Emeka Egbuka, who, like Godwin, does his best work from the slot. The Buccaneers’ 2024 offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, left to take a head-coaching job with the Jaguars. And the Buccaneers’ star left tackle, Tristan Wirfs, is expected to miss some early-season games with a knee injury. It’s hard to see the Tampa offense clicking the way it did last year. Godwin is coming back from a major injury and has added target competition. He’s pretty unappealing at a late-fifth-round ADP.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE): WR34, ADP 63
“Jerry Jeudy finally delivered a WR1 performance in 2024, but I am super skeptical he repeats his efforts in 2025. Last year was the perfect storm. From Week 8 onward, there was no Amari Cooper. Cedric Tillman missed the end of the season with a concussion. Jameis Winston was the Browns’ main QB and fueled most of Jeudy’s success as a fantasy WR kingmaker. But with Winston gone, betting on Jeudy to be the clear-cut No. 1 in Cleveland seems like malpractice. Cedric Tillman and David Njoku are back, and BOTH have experience already playing with presumed Week 1 starter Joe Flacco. This offense has traditionally run through the TEs, and Tillman out-produced and out-targeted Jeudy when healthy (Weeks 7-12). Even Kenny Pickett has experience with Diontae Johnson, should he start games. Jeudy is an easy regression candidate to avoid in 2025 fantasy football drafts. Weeks 1-10, Jeudy was WR54 in fantasy scoring (7.4 PPG, 59th). WR34 ADP. Just say no.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
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