Often confused with decrease, the word regression gets an unfair stigma in fantasy football. Regressing to the mean is another way to say getting closer to the average. If you are below average, that means you can improve towards average and still be regressing. Just because a player had a year that was significantly higher or lower than the league average (or player average), doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to change the following year.
Some players may be in different situations, may be aging or even have issues behind the scenes that we are unaware of. For example, what in the world happened to Diontae Johnson last year? As a result, here are six players who should have seasons that are closer to their average in 2025.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Regression Candidates
Negative Regression Candidates
James Cook (RB – BUF)
Any player who scored 18 touchdowns in a season is an instant red flag for regression. Even for fantasy superstars, an 18-touchdown season is very difficult to replicate. Although we wouldn’t be surprised if Saquon Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase or Bijan Robinson hit those numbers in 2025, it’s still unlikely. That’s because a lot of things have to work out for one player to be that dominant at finding pay dirt, and that’s exactly what happened to James Cook.
First, the team needs to have a very powerful offense. Thankfully, Buffalo is often one of the top teams, finishing second in the league last year with an average of 3.8 touchdowns per game. Even though Buffalo has improved their offensive weapons this offseason, that alone is a potential sign of team regression. Last year, the Bills, Ravens (3.8) and Lions (4.1) all averaged more touchdowns per game than any team since the 2020 Packers (4.1). Even if Josh Allen is an alias for Clark Kent, that number should come down.
Offense aside, Cook’s touchdown rate is unsustainable. Last season, Cook averaged a rushing touchdown on 7.7% of his rushing attempts. That’s wild. In comparison, Jahmyr Gibbs, who is an efficiency stud and was on the highest scoring offense in the league, averaged a touchdown on 6.4% of his attempts. That is a massive difference.
Add in the potential emergence of second-year players Ray Davis and Keon Coleman, as well as third-year player Dalton Kincaid, and it’s hard to see the touchdowns consolidating in Cook’s favour. Therefore, Cook’s RB8 finish in 2024 will be hard to replicate. Currently, going as the 14th running back off the board, according to average draft position (ADP), is not an unreasonable price, even with regression. However, if you had him last year and drafted him again, don’t expect the same production.
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
Unlike James Cook, Josh Jacobs’ regression is almost solely linked to the offensive environment. This is not to say that the Packers can’t replicate a top-eight performance in points scored; it’s more a statement on how they will get there.
It was a weird season for the Packers. In some ways, I think it was one of their more impressive seasons of recent memory. With all of the injuries that they were dealing with, having the kind of success they had is a true testament to Matt LaFleur being one of the best coaches in the league. Although there were many injuries, the most notable one was to Jordan Love.
In their season opener against the Eagles, Love sprained his MCL and missed the following two weeks. Even though he returned relatively quickly, it was clear he wasn’t 100%. As a result, LaFleur’s offense took on a new look. In his six years as a head coach, LaFleur had never had a team that was in the top 12 in rushing attempts.
That was, until last year, when they finished the season with the fifth-most attempts. Not only were they fifth in rushing attempts, but they had the third-fewest passing attempts, only behind the Eagles and the Ravens. As we know, with those two elite rushing teams, this was not a typical Packers season.
I hear you barking, big dog: “That’s because they brought in Josh Jacobs.” That’s a possibility for sure, as Jacobs showcased why he is still one of the best rushers in the league. However, LaFleur was also coaching the Packers with the electric duo of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, and was never in the same ballpark of rushing attempts.
Even if Jacobs was a potential determinant of the different offense, the drastic change was greater than just his ability. In the end, I am expecting a big season for Love (which I have already written about), and that may come at the expense of Jacobs.
Jacobs is currently going as the RB8 ahead of Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown and Kyren Williams. Although I don’t have an issue selecting him ahead of those three, I would rather take a shot on the receivers in that range and hopefully draft a similar back in the following round.
Positive Regression Candidates
Trey McBride (TE – ARI), Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL) & Travis Kelce (TE – KC)
These three players may have very different evaluations by the fantasy community; however, each is a regression candidate. Combining for 366 targets, these three had a total of five receiving touchdowns — three from Kelce, two from McBride and zero from Ferguson. We just discussed how Cook averaged a touchdown on 7.7% of his carries, McBride had a touchdown on 1.3% of his targets, Kelce was at 2.2% and Ferguson failed to score. In other words, all three of these players were allergic to scoring in 2024 and should be able to rebound in 2025.
McBride was probably the most shocking of these three players. That’s because he had the second-most targets at the position, and tied for the 15th-most targets at all positions. I believe the fact that McBride didn’t catch his first touchdown until Week 17 should go down as one of the (now) Nine Wonders of the World. Thankfully, once he saw his first one, he was able to follow it up the following week with another score.
Much like Jakobi Meyers‘ Patriots days, there is no statistical or offensive scheme reasoning behind the lack of touchdowns. As the iconic Halifax show Trailer Park Boys says: Sometimes she goes, sometimes she doesn’t, and that’s just the way of the road. The Cardinals are projected to be an above-average offense, and the team will rely heavily on McBride. If he can approach the league average in touchdowns, he has a clear path to become the overall fantasy TE1.
Kelce is one of the more confusing players to draft this year. Some believe last year’s down production was a clear indication of his age. There was some truth to that statement, as Kelce could not overcome defenses that schemed against him being the top target like he used to. Still, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic; there is meat left on the bone. As a result, he is being drafted outside of the top five at the position for what seems to be the first time in his career.
Statistically, there is a clear path for Kelce to rebound and be a value. Last year, he had 26 red-zone targets, which were five more red-zone targets than the next highest tight end. Those targets resulted in three touchdowns. This season could be the definition of positive regression, as Patrick Mahomes should also return to being a prolific touchdown passer. Even if Kelce has lost a step, he could easily have a season much like Jimmy Graham‘s end-of-career, easily catching double-digit touchdowns.
Shockingly, Ferguson might be the player who is most likely to regress positively. After joining the fantasy scene in 2023 as a top-10 tight end, many (including myself) believed 2024 was going to be another step forward. Instead, he came crashing back to Earth, missing three games and finishing as the fantasy TE25. Despite missing time, he was still 10th at the position in targets.
The issue was that Ferguson only had five red-zone targets and failed to catch a touchdown. Even his backup, Luke Schoonmaker, had a touchdown when filling in for Ferguson. This passing attack should collectively benefit from the addition of George Pickens, making Ferguson a solid volume play at the position with the potential to see an infinitely larger touchdown total from last year.
DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
This isn’t the first time this offseason I’ve brought up DJ Moore’s name, and it won’t be the last. With the entire Bears team in the offensive spotlight by adding head coach Ben Johnson, it’s surprising that Moore is being overlooked. He is by far the most experienced and talented receiver on this team (at this point). Both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III possess the ability to challenge that statement, but we’ll need to see it first.
Last year, Moore had his lowest yardage total since playing with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold (before their resurgences) and current Calgary Stampeders quarterback P.J. Walker. In 2025, Moore also had the ninth-most red-zone targets at the position, which only turned into two red-zone scores. Despite all of this, Moore still finished as the WR26 in 2024.
I believe last season was Moore’s floor on this offense. With the addition of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams going into his second season, Moore should easily improve on last year’s numbers and regress positively back to a productive fantasy player.
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