Draft day is all about finding value and avoiding costly mistakes – and Average Draft Position (ADP) is one of the best tools to help you do both. By comparing where players are being drafted to their projected production, fantasy football managers can spot potential steals and sidestep landmines. To give you a winning edge for 2025 drafts, we’ve gathered 30 players experts draft and avoid at ADP from our collection of Featured Pros experts. This list highlights the players our analysts avoid at their current ADP so you can make smarter picks and build a championship-ready roster.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Players Fantasy Football Experts Avoid at ADP: Wide Receivers
Who is a player you’re AVOIDING in drafts based on his current ADP (top-150) and why?
DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
“Many were afraid to draft DJ Moore last year after the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze in the offseason. However, the former Maryland star finished the year as the WR16, averaging 11.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing on a dysfunctional offense. Unfortunately, fantasy players should avoid drafting Moore at his WR20 and 47.3 overall ADP. The veteran will have even more target competition this season than last year after Chicago used their top two picks in the 2025 NFL Draft on Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. More importantly, Moore has had a rocky offseason, reportedly having issues with Ben Johnson. Meanwhile, Odunze could break out and be the Bears’ No. 1 wide receiver in 2025. Fantasy players should target DK Metcalf, Tetairoa McMillan, and Xavier Worthy with a later ADP over Moore.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC)
“I think Brian Thomas Jr. is a phenomenal talent, but his current ADP of WR8 is too rich for me, given the type of usage we’re likely to see from Travis Hunter in the offense. I believe we would be drafting BTJ at his ceiling. While I still think he can finish as a top-15 player in FPPG, I would rather draft someone like De’Von Achane or Drake London in that range, as I believe they have a higher ceiling.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
“I’m avoiding Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown at his ADP of 11.0 (WR5) due to the high likelihood of regression for the Lions’ offense in 2025. Detroit’s explosive 2024 season set a high bar, but their touchdown output is likely to drop by at least 10, given defensive adjustments and key losses on the offensive line. St. Brown’s elite target volume may dip with increased competition from teammates like Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, diluting his production. His WR5 price assumes sustained dominance, but regression risks make him overvalued compared to other top-tier options.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
Travis Hunter (WR, CB – JAC)
“Travis Hunter is going off the board as pick 64 in FFPC. I am avoiding him at that cost. I understand the upside, but he is a better best-ball play than a redraft play for me. Too many good players that I am more confident in for weekly consistency in this range. You are drafting starters at pick 64, and he is not someone I feel confident in starting Week 1.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
“This was easy. Avoid Ashton Jeanty at all costs with his first-round ADP. I’m kidding, of course. I just wanted to get it on the preseason overreactions. It has to be Pearsall’s teammate – Brandon Aiyuk. His status remains vague, but we know he will miss time. It has been posited that Aiyuk could be out until as long as Week 10, but the 49ers are reportedly eyeing a Week 6 return. I just can’t draft the guy, even if he has a WR49 ADP.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
“Terry McLaurin requires a fourth-round commitment as WR18. That may be worth more than the Commanders are willing to invest. McLaurin has one Top 10 finish, one Top 15 finish, and has finished outside the WR20 in four other seasons. Jayden Daniels easily gives him the best quarterback play of his career, but the Commanders have drawn a hard line with McLaurin. There is too much talent on the board at McLaurin’s ADP to invest in the uncertainty.”
– Jeff Bell (Footballguys)
Drake London (WR – ATL)
“I’m risk-averse with early-round picks. A (albeit awesome) three-game sample of Drake London playing with Michael Penix isn’t enough for me to make the pick as WR9. We are yet to see what mid-season adjustments might look like against Penix and how that will affect the offense. I generally try to avoid the unknown in my first three rounds of fantasy drafts. That means passing on Drake London and taking known commodities like A.J. Brown, Trey McBride, or even grabbing a top-tier QB (all currently going after London in 1-QB).”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
“Don’t draft Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins’ WR is one of the riskiest early-round picks in fantasy football, ranking as the WR12 (28th overall). He finished last season as WR33 in points per game, with just two 100-yard games alongside a healthy Tua Tagovailoa (11 games as WR18 in PPG) – a far cry from the elite production fantasy managers drafted him for. His efficiency cratered, with yards per route run dropping to 1.75 – less than half his 2023 mark – all while battling a wrist injury. Now 31, Hill is approaching the dreaded age cliff for speed-reliant receivers, and a late-season sideline outburst only adds to the concerns about his role/stability in Miami. Early reports have indicated that he is still working to rebuild his relationship with his QB and his teammates, while trade rumors for the Cheetah have also gained steam in recent weeks. The game-breaking upside might still be there, but the red flags around health, team chemistry, and declining performance make Hill a logical bust candidate that should be avoided at this high of a cost.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Tough to choose between Tyreek Hill and Jonathan Taylor, but the situation brewing in Miami just does not feel right. Hill already wanted out after last year, only for those cracks to be smoothed over for now. Headed into 2025, Miami feels on the brink of a full-blown blowup, and that is a situation that is best to be avoided. Hill, currently the WR12 in half-ADP, is simply too expensive and comes with way too much downside than in previous seasons to warrant such an investment in 2025.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
“I just can’t find myself drafting Rashee Rice at all this year. His ADP of 49 seems way too early to me. By the time I’m ready to draft him, he’s been gone for multiple rounds. Not only am I worried about his availability due to the legal issues he’s facing, but he’s not necessarily the most durable player either. Patrick Mahomes could very easily just decide to ignore him, too, since he’s got Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce in that offense as well. If you want to take a risk, that’s fine, but at Rice’s price, that’s way too expensive for me.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
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