MLB DFS & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (9/21)

We are looking at the afternoon DFS slate for today’s games. On DraftKings, the slate begins at 12:35 Eastern Time and includes 10 games. FanDuel has a slate of games that begins at the same time, but it includes an 11th game. That game is the Los Angeles Angels at the Colorado Rockies. Any game at Coors Field is interesting for offensive pieces. However, to keep it an exact comparison, none of the recommendations will be from that game.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (9/21)

MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (9/21) | FantasyPros
PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
Spencer Strider	$8,900	$9,300
Trey Yesavage	$8,500	$8,800
Robert Gasser	$6,900	$6,500

This is a difficult-to-predict starting pitcher slate. There are not many ‘reliable’ aces in the slate. Instead, there are quite a few pitchers who have shown upside at times, but haven’t been able to sustain it over extended periods this season. Spencer Strider showed a flash of his former dominance in his last start. In that game, he struck out six batters over seven innings with only a single earned run allowed. Today, he takes on an erratic Tigers’ offense that has a 24.2% strikeout rate over the last 30 days.
It’s only been one start from Trey Yesavage, but the performance and matchup already make him viable. In his one start, he was able to strike out nine batters over only five innings. He had a 27.5% swinging strike rate in that game. His second matchup is against the Kansas City Royals. They do not strike out often, but they can also struggle to score runs.
Robert Gasser? Who? The Milwaukee Brewers have not officially announced a starting pitcher for today, but the belief is that they will be recalling Robert Gasser. Through five starts last season, he had a 2.57 ERA and a 3.38 at the Major League level. Unfortunately, he then had a Tommy John surgery. This will be his first Major League start since then. At Triple-A on his rehab assignment, he has pitched to a 2.25 ERA.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

New York Mets Projected Lineup (9/21)

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
SS	Francisco Lindor	$5,400	$3,700
OF	Juan Soto	$6,200	$4,200
1B	Pete Alonso	$5,200	$3,400
OF	Brandon Nimmo	$4,200	$3,000
3B	Mark Vientos	$3,600	$2,900
2B/OF (FD)	Jeff McNeil	$3,300	$2,700
2B/3B	Brett Baty	$3,700	$2,600
C	Francisco Alvarez	$3,200	$2,500
OF	Cedric Mullins	$3,400	$2,600

The New York Mets will be facing Jake Irvin. He leads the National League in both earned runs and home runs allowed. His ERA is currently 5.76, which is fully supported by his 5.66 FIP. He faced the Mets just over a month ago. In that game, he gave up six earned runs in six innings.
It’s costly, but try to get Juan Soto into your lineup. Now that he is stealing bases at an absurd rate (league-leading 23 in the 2nd half), there are so many ways that he can return value. He has delivered double-digit points on DraftKings in 12 of 17 games this month.
Brandon Nimmo has a track record of success against Irvin. He has gone 7-20 against Irvin in his career with a pair of home runs. Nimmo had been in a bit of an offensive lull, but he has seemingly come out of it again over the last week by going 8-25 with a pair of home runs.
This is the type of matchup where we can look to use Brett Baty. He is doing nearly all of his damage this season against right-handed pitchers. He has 29 extra-base hits against right-handed pitching, and only three against left-handed pitching. He has also been performing well recently with a .930 OPS over the last two weeks.

San Diego Padres Projected Lineup (9/21)

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
OF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	$5,500	$3,700
1B/2B	Luis Arraez	$4,300	$2,700
3B	Manny Machado	$5,300	$3,700
OF	Jackson Merrill	$4,300	$3,200
OF	Ramon Laureano	$4,400	$3,100
1B/OF	Gavin Sheets	$3,900	$2,800
1B/OF (FD)	Ryan O’Hearn	$3,800	$2,900
2B/SS (DK) 1B/2B (FD)	Jake Cronenworth	$3,800	$2,700
C	Freddy Fermin	$2,500	$2,500

Sean Burke keeps finding a way to avoid blowup starts despite putting far too many batters on base. His ERA sits at a respectable 4.29, but his FIP and expected ERA are each nearly a run higher. The Padres are the type of offense that could post a large crooked number against him if he keeps putting runners on base, as his 1.47 WHIP indicates.
After an uncharacteristically cold stretch, Manny Machado is dialed back in now. He is in the midst of a 9-23 stretch where he has hit three home runs. That brings him to five home runs already this month.
It took nearly all season, but Jackson Merrill seems to be finally delivering on his expected value. In September, he has a .921 OPS, which is far and away his best since the 10 games he played back in March and April. You want to play him against right-handed pitchers, as that is where his power lies. He has an .830 OPS against right-handed pitching, and only a .628 against left-handed pitching.
If you’re looking for a bit of a discounted player, look at Jake Cronenworth. Over the last 30 days, he is actually the team leader in OPS at .867.

Core Studs

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
OF	Jackson Chourio	$4,600	$3,700
1B	Kyle Manzardo	$4,500	$2,900
SS	Dansby Swanson	$4,000	$3,100

Jackson Chourio has a matchup against left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore. While he has been fine against right-handed pitchers, he is even better against left-handed pitchers. His OPS against left-handed pitchers is .974
Against a right-handed pitcher is when you can play Kyle Manzardo. 21 of his 26 home runs have come against right-handed pitchers. Today, he has a matchup against right-hander Simeon Woods-Richardson and his 50% flyball rate.
Dansby Swanson is taking on left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott. He has hit for more power against left-handed pitchers this season with an .84o OPS against them, as opposed to a .693 against right-handed pitching. He has also gone 4-12 against Abbott in his career with two doubles and two home runs.

Value Plays/Punts

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
1B	Ty France	$2,700	$2,500
OF	Lawrence Butler	$3,600	$3,000
SS/2B (FD)	Ha-Seong Kim	$3,400	$2,700

First, we have to make sure that Ty France is in the lineup. He last started Wednesday against a left-handed pitcher. Given his track record today against Michael Wacha, I’m hopeful that he’ll be in the lineup. In his career against Wacha, he has gone 12-28 with five doubles and a home run.
Lawrence Butler is falling into value play territory at these prices. While it has been a disappointing season, he has already delivered a 20/20 season. Today’s matchup is against a right-handed pitcher in Mike Burrows. His OPS against right-handed pitchers is nearly 200 points higher (.769 as opposed to .572) against them.
Ha-Seong Kim has looked rejuvenated since landing with the Atlanta Braves. He has hits in 13 of 17 games, including a double and a pair of home runs.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Mookie Betts (2B, SS, RF – LAD) – Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

It’s taken till September, but Mookie Betts is looking like his first-round self. In September, he has 12 runs, six home runs, 20 RBI, and a .329 batting average. He has gone over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in 12 of 18 games this month. The Giants look to be going with a bullpen game against them today.

Xavier Edwards (2B, SS – MIA) – Under 1.5 Total Bases

Xavier Edwards has a matchup today against the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are starting Merrill Kelly. Edwards is in the midst of a cold streak. He has only gone over 1.5 total bases two times this month in 12 games. If we look even further back, he has only gone over 1.5 total bases four times in 26 games.

Connelly Early (SP – BOS) – Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Connelly Early has struck out 18 batters in his first 10 major league innings. It is backed up by a swinging strike of 17.6%. Today, he has a matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have a 25.5% strikeout rate over the past 30 days, which is the sixth highest in baseball. Take advantage of what seems like a low line.