Week 3 has many slight spreads but few high totals. In fact, only one game has a total north of 50 points, and just one more is above 45 points on the main slate. While the game with the highest spread will likely be a chalky stack, it’s not one of the featured stacks below. Yet, the game with the second-highest total did make the cut. Finally, the featured core studs and values/punts have a stars-and-scrubs feel, but that’s because there’s enough value to open up the requisite cap space for three of the highest-salaried skill-position players on the same team without sacrificing usable players at the bottom of the NFL DFS roster.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 3
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Titans vs. Colts
Spread/Total: IND -4.5/43.5 Points
The underdog Titans have a pair of intriguing, value-salaried wideouts. Cam Ward has had a pair of challenging assignments to begin his NFL career, and the Colts might not provide him as much resistance after serving as a get-right spot for Bo Nix in Week 2.
Even in the tricky two-game runout, Ward wisely funneled targets to Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor. The latter will be featured among the values and punts below. So, let’s turn our attention to Ridley. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Ridley leads the Titans in route participation rate (84.0%), target share (23.0%) and receiving yards, and he’s tied for first on the team in receptions (seven), first-read rate (26.8%) and end-zone targets (one). Ridley is a compelling bring-back from an Indy stack, namely in GPPs, where he’ll almost certainly have a lower roster rate than Ayomanor.
Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards (236), and the Colts have leaned heavily on their talented workhorse. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Colts are tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (51%) through Week 2. Taylor isn’t ceding many touches to others in Indy’s backfield, as evidenced by handling 43 of the backfield’s 56 rush attempts (76.8%). However, his juicy backfield rush share doesn’t tell the full story, as DJ Giddens and Ulysses Bentley handled the final 10 rush attempts in the club’s blowout win in Week 1 against the Dolphins.
Taylor also has a nifty 62.0% route participation rate, five targets, five receptions, 77 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown, bolstering his value and insulating him from a negative game script derailing his value.
Circling back to Taylor’s rushing, he has a mouthwatering matchup on the ground. According to Pro Football Reference, the Titans have yielded the fifth-most rushing yards per game (121.5) and two rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. There are a ton of elite running backs to pick from this week, but Taylor warrants some GPP usage.
Daniel Jones has proven Shane Steichen and the organization correct for signing him as a free agent and naming him as the club’s starting quarterback. Among 34 quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks this season, Danny Dimes has the ninth-highest passing grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF). He also has three big-time throws versus only one turnover-worthy play. The artist known as Vanilla Vick also adds value with his legs, and he’s the QB2 in fantasy points per game (26.2) this season. FanDuel has gotten the memo, providing him with a reasonable salary hike, but DraftKings has him grossly underpriced. Still, Jones is an appealing pick in all game types at both DFS outlets.
Tyler Warren was held out of Wednesday’s practice with a toe injury. As long as it was only a precautionary move and the rookie tight end suits up this week, he’s the top-stacking option with Danny Dimes, a sweet part of a skinny stack with one of Tennessee’s featured wide receivers or an awesome one-off in all game types at both DFS providers. Among 38 tight ends with at least 30 routes this season, Warren is sixth in air yards share (18.8%), third in targets (16), second in target share (25.4%), first in targets per route run (0.29), fourth in first-read rate (24.5%), first in receiving yards (155), second in yards per route run (2.82) and first in expected fantasy points per route run (0.51). Warren is the real deal and Indy’s top pass-catching weapon.
Michael Pittman is nipping at Warren’s heels for Indy’s top pass-catching weapon. MPJ has a 20.6% target share, 0.22 targets per route run, 10 receptions, 120 receiving yards, 2.07 yards per route run and one receiving touchdown. Pittman can be used as a double-stacking option with Jones. Yet, he’s also a viable pivot from Warren, who could benefit if the rookie’s toe injury hampers his performance, opening up more chances for Pittman.
Game: Chargers vs. Broncos
Spread/Total: LAC -3.0/46.0 Points
Unfortunately, Ladd McConkey surprisingly popped up on the injury report on Wednesday, failing to participate with a biceps injury. The remaining practice reports will shed light on the severity of the injury and the availability for this week. Progressing to full participation by the end of the week would be optimal for his DFS outlook. Nevertheless, McConkey is an appealing stacking pick with Justin Herbert in a pass-happy offense if the second-year wideout is healthy enough to play.
Obviously, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston would get a boost in target opportunities if McConkey were ruled out. The Chargers have played well on offense this year, and Greg Roman is leaning on his stud quarterback. In fact, according to nfelo, Los Angeles’ 14.8% pass rate over expectations (PROE) is nearly double the second-highest rate (7.7%) this season. Last season, the Bengals paced the NFL with an 8.2% PROE. So, Herbert is genuinely slinging it.
I’ll dig into Allen’s numbers more below since he’s a featured value/punt. However, LA’s passing attack runs through its receivers. McConkey (90.4% route participation), Johnston (90.4% route participation) and Allen (78.1% route participation) are the only players with route participation rates above 51% for the Chargers. They’ve combined for 72.2% of Herbert’s targets and 81.7% of the team’s air yards. All three players are averaging over 60 receiving yards per game. The first-read rates have been split nearly evenly between each of them, too. Since all three wideouts are performing at a high level, I’m not sure Patrick Surtain will travel with any of them.
Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin are the best bring-backs from a Chargers stack. Sutton had a rare no-show since Nix took the reins of the offense last year, posting only one reception for six scoreless yards on four targets in Week 2. He’s in a bounce-back spot in another potential shootout if Denver’s defense continues reeling.
Franklin has seemingly taken hold of Denver’s No. 2 receiver gig. Yet, an unexpected decrease in route participation this week shouldn’t be handwaved away. Sean Payton has pulled the rug out from under gamers before. Nevertheless, Franklin generated buzz in the offseason, and he’s first on the team in air yards share (41.8%), target share (21.4%), receptions (12), receiving yards (133) and yards per route run (2.61). The second-year pro has also snagged a touchdown reception, and his underlying data was worth 13.4 expected fantasy points per game, making him a screaming value at his salary if his role sticks.
Core Studs
- Bijan Robinson is projected as the RB1 at FanDuel and the RB2 at DraftKings in Week 3. He has a drool-inducing matchup this week. Carolina has coughed up 110.5 rushing yards per game, 5.7 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 4.5 receptions per game and 32.5 receiving yards per game to running backs this season after they were the best fantasy matchup for running backs last season. Robinson is built to steamroll the Panthers, ranking second in scrimmage yards (292) this season. He also has nine receptions and a touchdown in 2025.
- Christian McCaffrey is projected as the RB1 at DraftKings and the RB2 at FanDuel this week. Despite a calf scare before his season opener, CMC has had 32 and 20 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets), converting them into 142 and 107 scrimmage yards and one touchdown. San Francisco’s stud running back has an eye-popping 17 targets and 15 receptions this year.
- CeeDee Lamb is projected as the WR1 at both DFS outlets. Among 93 wideouts with at least 30 routes this year, Lamb is second in air yards (290), tied for first in targets (24), tied for third in receptions (16), third in receiving yards (222), tied for third in yards per route run (2.61), ninth in first-read rate (33.9%) and second in expected fantasy points per game (23.5). Detroit’s wide receivers just clowned Chicago’s injury-ravaged secondary last week, and Lamb should destroy them this week.
Value Plays/Punts
- Allen is projected to have the third-highest value score (points per $1,000 of salary) among wide receivers at DraftKings in Week 3. The old man has plenty of gas in the tank. He’s 24th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (14.0).
- Jordan Mason is projected as the RB11 at DraftKings and the RB8 at FanDuel in Week 3, with the highest value score at running back at both DFS providers. Among 44 running backs with at least a dozen rush attempts this season, Mason is tied for ninth in explosive run rate (8.3%), fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.33) and 16th in yards after contact per attempt (2.46). He’s left with a bell-cow workload after Aaron Jones was placed on the injured reserve (IR) earlier this week, and he could get help upfront with Christian Darrisaw fully practicing on Wednesday. Finally, Mason has a sweet matchup, as the Bengals have coughed up the second-most DraftKings points per game (29.4) and the third-most FanDuel points per game (26.1) to running backs through two weeks this season.
- Ayomanor has the second-highest value score among wide receivers at DraftKings on this week’s DFS main slate. The rookie wideout leads the Titans in air yards share (41.0%), and among players on Tennessee who’ve run at least 25 routes, Ayomanor is first in targets per route run (0.27). He’s also leading the team in expected fantasy points per game (12.3). Ayomanor’s salary hasn’t caught up to his robust role, making him a steal at both DFS providers this week.
Week 3 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Bijan Robinson: 79.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
Robinson had only 24 rushing yards in a challenging Week 1 matchup against Vita Vea and Tampa Bay’s stout run defense. He exploded for 143 yards on 22 carries against the Vikings in Week 2 and has a softer matchup this week. Again, the Panthers have permitted 110.5 rushing yards per game to running backs this year, leaving room for Robinson to surpass 79.5 rushing yards, even with Tyler Allgeier mixing in. We project Robinson to have 87 rushing yards this week.
Nico Collins: 67.5 Receiving Yards – Lower
C.J. Stroud stinks on the road and outside. Unfortunately, Stroud’s ineptitude with those splits can impact Nico Collins’ receiving production. According to StatHead, Collins has fallen short of 67.5 receiving yards in four of eight games on the road since last season. Moreover, Collins has produced only 25 and 52 receiving yards in the first two games of the season, and he could have more target competition this week with Christian Kirk returning to practice.
CeeDee Lamb: 82.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Lamb has erupted for 110 and 112 receiving yards in the first two games of the season and has a Charmin-soft matchup on tap. The Bears have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game (169) to wide receivers. Their first game of the year was against J.J. McCarthy in his first regular-season game in the NFL, making their ineptitude against wideouts more notable. In addition, Dallas’ defensive futility should force Dak Prescott and the passing attack to keep their foot on the accelerator. We project Lamb to have 91.1 receiving yards this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
