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Players to Buy
Justin Jefferson continues to perform at a high level despite inconsistent QB play. 5th in the NFL in target share (29%). 5th in air yards share (45%). 10th in PPG. He continues to get it done in this offense regardless of the QB. I think this kind of makes him a sneaky buy-low candidate with concerns about how his production will be when J.J. McCarthy returns. It’s certainly possible that it gets worse with the young QB back. However, there’s still a real upside case with JJ. Jefferson’s floor is so high that I think it might be worth the risk to see what his asking price is in your league.
Naturally, when I finally generate the courage to take the under on the Big Dog in a brutal matchup, he truck sticks me. Derrick Henry rushed for 122 yards with no TDs in Week 6. At least the buy-low take from last week aged well!
As a reminder for the post-bye week…
It’s a SMASH spot for the Ravens offense – specifically with Derrick Henry. Bears/Dolphins. Sharp managers should be looking to buy low on Henry with Lamar Jackson making his return.
FITZ WAS RIGHT. The Panthers’ run defense isn’t as bad as it’s been historically. Back-to-back weeks, they’ve held De’Von Achane and Javonte Williams to less than 2.2 yards per carry. Still, not worried about Javonte’s first bad game. The Cowboys RB played 85% of the snaps and had plenty of red-zone work (6 RZ opportunities), but didn’t score. Still totaled 18 touches (8 targets) and Jaydon Blue played 5 offensive snaps after Miles Sanders was placed on IR. Eventually, some of the Dallas o-line injuries would catch up with them, and that was the case in Week 6. I like the schedule upcoming for Williams (home vs WAS, @ DEN, and home vs ARI) before a Week 10 bye week. Williams ranks 7th in rushing success rate this season.
Breece Hall better rest up, because I’d anticipate he gets LOADED with carries – just like in Week 6.
Hall tallied 22 carries for 59 yards, but was unsuccessful in popping off any big runs. This was a very much an outlier defensive performance. According to Next Gen Stats…
The Broncos defense held the Jets to zero explosive plays, the first time an offense has gone without an explosive play in a game since Week 11, 2021 (HOU vs. TEN).
The Jets’ -0.4 yards per pass play was the 2nd-fewest in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016, trailing only NYG vs. NYJ, Week 8, 2023). Breece Hall was held to a career-low -14 rushing yards before contact, ultimately gaining 59 yards on 22 carries.
Ergo, the Jets’ run game should rebound at home versus the Panthers. Carolina has been stifling the run the last two weeks (just 50 rushing yards allowed the last 2 games).
Defensive end Pat Jones has been back for Carolina the last two weeks, and he has seemingly given Carolina some help on the defensive line.
Still, Hall should reprise another top-tier workload (74% snap rate), making him a buy-low with the vibes around the Jets under ground level. Also gets Bengals in Week 8.
Tetairoa McMillan remains a priority trade target after scoring twice in Week 6. Head and shoulders above every other Panthers WR. Shown an extremely high-floor through 6 games (8-plus targets in each contest besides last week). Always be buying. The rookie WR is 13th in XPPG this season.
Brian Thomas Jr. has a 54-yard TD wiped out on an offensive offsides penalty….on Travis Hunter. Woof. Even so, BTJ was BACK in Week 6. 8-90-1 on a team-high 11 targets (24% target share). Again, another guy I thought was trending in the right direction, and he delivered against an injury-depleted Seahawks secondary. 15th in XPPG this season. Trending up!
Davante Adams had 10 targets, but only turned out 4-39 (also picked up a DPI with 3 RZ targets) in Week 6.
Adams has a chance to really explode with Puka Nacua sidelined. Obviously, he and Matthew Stafford have been building chemistry on the fly as Adams is 5th in points scored BELOW expectation. He and Stafford have not been connecting as much as they should be, considering Adams is second in XPPG.
Adams leads the NFL in red-zone targets (13). He has caught two of them.
I don’t think Adams is washed…but be open to somebody else in the Rams also eating here along with Kyren Williams in the ground attack.
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet continue their dreaded 50/50 split. Neither scored and as a result…we are sad fantasy managers. Both only drew one target.
Charbonnet totaled 60% snaps, 12 carries, 13 routes, 1 target (37 yds). Kenneth Walker: totaled 35% snaps, 10 carries, 8 routes, 1 target. Both guys generated 37 yards.
Charbs had six carries in the red zone but didn’t score. Walker had two.
I get that the usage is frustrating. But Walker remains the best back in this backfield. PFF’s second-highest graded rusher this season. Buy low on the talent. People are ready to drop KW3.
Stefon Diggs continues to dominate in the Pats offense…after he broke out in Week 4. 10-146 on 12 targets (40% target share) in Week 5. He’s back to pre-injury form, and the WR1 rest of the season for New England. And he is so overdue for a TD score. So even though he is coming off a meh game, he is still a BUY. Kayshon Boutte came away with the big game, going 5-92-2 on five targets.
Diggs wasn’t terrible – 3-28 on three targets – because his biggest play of 51 yards was taken off on an OPI call. Refs were BAD in this game.
Don’t worry about Diggs. In fact, use this as a reason to BUY LOW after the two other NE WRs popped in the box score this week. After Week 6, Diggs is still PFF’s 6th-highest graded WR – and he’d be averaging over 3 yards per route run had the 51-yard catch stood.
Without Brock Bowers…Michael Mayer played 92% of the snaps in Week 6. 5-50-1 on 7 targets (30% target share). Add if you need a one-week fill-in. Because the earliest we could see Brock Bowers is after the bye week (Week 8). I’ve gotten a lot of questions regarding Brock Bowers…and I think he is worth kicking the tires on if you are just streaming tight ends. He can be a difference-maker when healthy. Anybody in fantasy that can be a true difference-maker can be a needle-mover. If he can do his best Puka Nacua impression from last season…make a move.
Chances are, the Bowers manager has a losing record and would be willing to sell for pennies on the dollar. Pete Carroll was less than optimistic about Bowers’ chances to return this week, noting that his long-term health is what is most important.
J.K. Dobbins was the lead back but was held to just 40 yards on 14 carries. RJ Harvey played a supporting role with just two carries while chipping in four catches for 21 yards.
In full PPR, Harvey out-scored Dobbins, ironically, (running more routes).
I’ve been on the “sell-high” on Dobbins take for a bit…. as we know the injury track record for Dobbins. But if you are cool just riding it out…be my guest. Especially the next two weeks versus NYG/DAL. Hold Dobbins for two more weeks and still add/buy Harvey.
On the live game broadcast, Sean Payton told Kurt Warner that he [Harvey] can be a special type of player with the ball in his hands, and maybe the only thing holding him back is me [Payton] not calling his number enough.
The receiving has been very solid thus far. Suggests he has a high ceiling if something were to happen to Dobbins.
Assuming that Ricky Pearsall‘s health is in check…I want to buy low on him. Use the Kendrick Bourne–Mac Jones connection to buy low on Ricky Pearsall. Brock Purdy will be back under center at some point. Jauan Jennings is also no long-term bet to stay healthy, given all the injuries he is playing through. His injuries seemed to hamper his production. Given he caught just one pass for 7 yards on three targets in Week 6.
If Pearsall starts practicing this week. Smash buy. PFF’s 15th-highest graded WR in four games played.
Alright, I think I FINALLY know what I want to do with Isiah Pacheco. And that’s buy.
No doubt it’s been tough sledding for the Chiefs’ backfield. But Pacheco has looked good the last few weeks. The snap share also continues to climb. 77% in Week 6 (season-high in carries at 12), after a season-high number in Week 5.
It’s trending all the way up for Pacheco. Per Next Gen Stats, he had four rushes of 15-plus yards vs Detroit. He had four combined leading up to Week 6. Pacheco also had three targets to Hunt’s one (Brashard Smith drew 4). More importantly, the Chiefs RB had four red-zone carries to Hunt’s one. Hunt had just 5 routes to Pacheco’s 19 (50%). PACHECK YOURSELF BEFORE YOU WRECK YOURSELF. If the Chiefs offense turns back into a fantasy wagon…I think dumpster diving for Pacheco is a sharp move to make.
The post-rookie usage bump! Matthew Golden came out of the Packers’ week off going 3-86 on 5 targets. 5 total touches for over 100 yards from scrimmage. In his post-game presser, HC Matt LaFleur spoke about finding ways to get Golden the ball…with the caveat that they won’t “force feed” anybody despite what everybody desires. The rookie WR recorded a career-high 86 receiving yards on 3 receptions (5 targets) in a Week 6 victory over the Bengals.
The Packers rookie hauled in 2 catches on 3 downfield targets (10+ air yards), including 2 receptions on passes traveling 20+ air yards. Golden has accumulated 4 receptions on deep passes (20+ air yards) this season, matching the combined total of all other Packers players (4) according to Next Gen Stats. 39% air yards share (86 air yards) in Week 6 – same as Romeo Doubs. Doubs led the team with 9 targets, going 5-55. Solid. Note that Dontayvion Wicks also got hurt in this game.
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