The players below are the ones I’m looking at for NFL DFS GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Week 9 NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones has been quietly thriving with three straight weeks of over 20 fantasy points. That typically wouldn’t be quiet for most quarterbacks, but when your running back has 10 touchdowns over the past four games, it’s easy for your production to go overlooked.
Because of Taylor’s presence, we should have fairly moderate rostership on Jones despite an excellent matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that’s struggling significantly. The Steelers allow nearly 300 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, an average that includes both Justin Fields and Dillon Gabriel. They’ve also allowed nearly 800 yards and six passing touchdowns over the past two weeks to Joe Flacco and Jordan Love.
Josh Allen (QB – BUF) vs. KC | DraftKings: $7,300/FanDuel: $8,900
Kansas City is a fairly tough defensive matchup, but Josh Allen still has high upside this week. The Chiefs’ defense tends to be stronger against the run, but the most important factor here for DFS is rostership. Patrick Mahomes will likely be one of the highest-rostered quarterbacks on the slate, with Josh Allen garnering significantly lower rostership, making him potentially the perfect contrarian play.
Allen is only $200 more than Mahomes on DraftKings. The game has an expected point total of 52.5 with the Chiefs as two-point favorites. Translation? Both teams will put up points. James Cook has a bad matchup, and the majority of Buffalo’s points should come through Allen. In terms of stacking, Khalil Shakir is coming off an excellent performance, but my recommendation is to stack with Dalton Kincaid or play Allen naked.
Jared Goff (QB – DET) vs. MIN | DraftKings: $6,000/FanDuel: $7,600
Minnesota’s defense started the season strong against subpar quarterbacks, but has struggled over the past couple of weeks against higher-end quarterbacks. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a ceiling game from Jared Goff, and this matchup is perfect to deploy him in GPP at an extremely low rostership.
Goff has a very clear stacking path with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who should have a moderate rostership this week, or Sam LaPorta. The game is in Detroit, with a 48.5-point total and the Lions as heavy favorites with the return of J.J. McCarthy. We’re not seeing significant rostership from anyone in this matchup, likely due to the anticipation and uncertainty surrounding McCarthy’s return.
Additional Considerations
Running Backs
Despite the excellent matchup against a porous Cincinnati defense, D’Andre Swift is still coming in at a moderate rostership. Swift currently has a questionable tag, and his rostership should likely rise if he’s cleared. However, given the extreme popularity of other backs, he still offers excellent value per salary at reasonable rostership. Swift has been playing through a groin injury successfully, with over 250 yards and three touchdowns across the past three games.
If Swift is unable to play, Kyle Monangai would move into the clear No. 1 RB role with extreme upside and excellent value for his salary. While he would likely lean toward a very chalky play due to the extremely low salary, given the matchup, he would be an absolute must-play regardless of rostership. Cincinnati’s defense has been demolished across the board, but has been extremely generous to running backs.
Kareem Hunt (RB – KC) @ BUF | DraftKings: $4,700/FanDuel: $5,900
Kareem Hunt is a strong value play at his pricing. He’s had a clear role as Kansas City’s preferred goal-line back; however, carries and yardage have been inconsistent for him, making him touchdown dependent.
With Isiah Pacheco trending toward missing Week 9, Hunt would presumably step into the lead-back role. Buffalo’s defense has been relatively friendly against the run, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The combination of a strong matchup and low salary makes Hunt a very appealing option this week.
While Minnesota’s defense has recently struggled against the pass, it’s had issues against the run all season, allowing strong performances on the ground to Quinshon Judkins and Kenneth Gainwell, among others. Despite the excellent matchup, Jahmyr Gibbs‘ cost will likely keep his rostership relatively low.
Gibbs is just $800 cheaper than Christian McCaffrey and over $1,000 more expensive than lower-priced players in excellent matchups like Kyren Williams. Gibbs is coming off an excellent performance against Tampa Bay in Week 7. He’s fresh off a bye and offers a ceiling as high as Jonathan Taylor at a fraction of the rostership.
Additional Considerations
Wide Receivers
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) vs. NO | DraftKings: $8,500/FanDuel: $9,500*
Puka Nacua is on track to return this week after practicing in full. He remains the highest-priced receiver on the slate; however, the margin has decreased, and he still offers solid value for his ceiling. Because he’s so similarly priced to Ja’Marr Chase, who is tracking to be the highest-rostered receiver on the slate, Nacua will naturally have a lower rostership due to Chase’s popularity and superior matchup against Chicago.
This makes Nacua an excellent pivot in GPP. Excluding the game he got injured, Nacua’s worst finish of the season has been WR6. He’s an extremely reliable player who offers the same ceiling as Chase.
Michael Pittman is a preferable play in GPP compared to cash because he can occasionally disappear within the offense depending on the matchup, given the depth of the Colts’ pass-catchers. However, Pittman is in the midst of the best season of his career and, despite the presence of Tyler Warren, offers the highest ceiling of any Colt not named Jonathan Taylor.
This week’s matchup against Pittsburgh is excellent, as the Steelers allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Pittman is priced below $6,000 on DraftKings and offers excellent value for his projection.
The Chargers aren’t a fantastic matchup overall for the pass, but Tennessee’s last two matchups were Indianapolis and New England, and ChimerebDike had no problem with those secondaries. Dike’s alignment should lean towards him being the more trustworthy option of the Titans’ receivers.
Despite his recent success, he still offers an extremely low salary, and skepticism around the Titans’ offense keeps his rostership low. Titans will likely have to push decent pass volume, and Dike is Cam Ward‘s first look.
Rome Odunze (WR – CHI) @ CIN | DraftKings: $6,600/FanDuel: $8,000 (Injury Pending)
Due to the inconsistency of the Chicago offense, Rome Odunze‘s rostership will likely be lower than it should be despite the appealing matchup. Cincinnati’s defense has been more generous to quarterbacks than wide receivers, but that’s largely related to the quality of opponents they’ve faced, and those teams favoring tight ends in matchups against Cincinnati.
Colston Loveland could be a strong play if Cole Kmet is out, but the clear first look in targets this season has been Odunze. He’s risky in cash but a fine play in GPP.
Additional Considerations
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid is going overlooked because it’s been a while since we’ve seen a high-upside performance from him — Week 5, to be exact. Kincaid missed Week 6 due to injury, had a bye in Week 7 and came back in Week 8 to an underwhelming workload with just one reception on three targets for 23 yards.
However, Kincaid was clearly still hampered by the injury and played just 22% of the snaps. Kincaid is not on the injury report in Week 9, and we should expect a full workload for him now that he’s healthy. The Chiefs have been a difficult matchup for tight ends this season, but that’s largely because they haven’t faced many elite ones.
The best they’ve faced was Sam LaPorta, who had five receptions for 55 yards and one touchdown. Kincaid is priced down and offers excellent value for his salary.
This is an injury-contingent play, but if Cole Kmet is unable to suit up or we catch word that he’ll be playing limited snaps, Colston Loveland has the best matchup for opposing tight ends this week.
It’s a risky play because the Bears have largely minimized the role of tight ends this season, but given Loveland’s pricing, he’s worth the risk.
Additional Considerations
D/ST
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST vs. LV | DraftKings: $3,300/FanDuel: $4,100*
Jacksonville faces a very turnover-prone Las Vegas team, and while they aren’t extremely low-priced, they’re still only the eighth-highest priced unit on DraftKings and offer excellent value on FanDuel.
Jacksonville’s defense has struggled over the past several weeks, but faced several top offenses in that span. They had solid performances earlier in the year against mid or subpar teams. Geno Smith has 10 interceptions with just seven touchdowns on the season. The Raiders’ offensive line is struggling to allow Ashton Jeanty consistent production. The Jaguars should be relatively low-rostered despite the excellent matchup.
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