The top suggested game to stack in Week 7 is unsurprising. It boasts the highest total on this week’s main slate and is expected to be a shootout. The second suggested stack also has shootout potential. Players from the suggested games to stack are represented in the core studs. However, the values and punts are from other contests.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 7
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Cowboys vs. Commanders
Spread/Total: WAS -1.5/54.5 Points
The Cowboys have a dreadful defense and an explosive offense, and the Commanders have a below-average defense and stellar offense, setting the stage for fireworks. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Cowboys are tied for the fifth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) this season.
Dak Prescott is having a sensational season through the air. Among 33 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season, Prescott has the third-highest passing grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF) and the sixth-highest big-time throw rate (5.7 BTT%). He’s also third among qualified quarterbacks in passing yards per game (269.5) and second in passing touchdowns.
Prescott is also unreal at home. According to StatHead, in 13 games at home since 2023, Prescott has completed 70.0% of his 503 pass attempts for 4,000 yards (307.7 per game), 30 touchdowns and only eight interceptions.
When Prescott takes to the air, he might have his No. 1 wide receiver back this week. CeeDee Lamb opened the year on fire before spraining his ankle early in Week 3. George Pickens and Jake Ferguson have also excelled this year. Yet, with Lamb’s potential return this week, it’s worth looking at how everyone played when the three were healthy in Week 1 and Week 2. The following table has their stats through Week 2 via the data suite at Fantasy Points.
Lamb isn’t a shoo-in to return to pre-injury form. Nonetheless, his high ceiling is worth rolling the dice on in stacks with Prescott in GPPs, especially if his roster percentage is depressed by gamers wanting to see him play well for a week before paying his hefty salary.
Pickens is also an exciting GPP selection. He was fantastic without Lamb, and his two-game sample to start the year shouldn’t be treated as gospel. Ferguson is also an enticing stacking option from this contest, with stellar numbers with and without Lamb.
Deebo Samuel has played through a heel injury in back-to-back weeks, with varying results. The versatile wideout had 11 targets, eight receptions, 96 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 5 before bottoming out for five targets, four receptions, 15 receiving yards and a carry for negative one yards. My comfort level for using Samuel in all game types will increase if he can progress to a full practice by Friday. Nonetheless, Samuel is a high-upside choice, even if Terry McLaurin returns this week.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the Cowboys play zone coverage at the second-highest rate (85.9%) this year, and Samuel has a track record of beating zone coverage. Samuel has posted the following targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (Y/RR) against zone coverage in recent seasons.
Samuel has bounced back from a down year against zone coverage in 2024. He can barbecue a pathetic secondary that’s allowing the most DraftKings points per game (44.2) and the most FanDuel points per game (36.4) to wideouts this season.
Zach Ertz is the cheapest intriguing exposure to this game. In four games with Washington’s starting quarterback, Ertz had the following stats.
- 73.7%
- 7.1-yard aDOT
- 13.3% air yards share
- 15.3% target share
- 0.17 targets per route run
- 15 receptions (3.75 per game)
- 133 receiving yards (33.3 per game)
- Three touchdowns
Game: Chargers vs. Colts
Spread/Total: LAC -1.5/48.5 Points
The Chargers have a pass-happy offense. According to nfelo, Los Angeles is second in pass rate over expectations (+5.1% PROE) this season. They haven’t passed as much recently, partly due to navigating injuries. Nevertheless, they had a 59% situation-neutral pass rate in the previous two games.
Justin Herbert is playing well in the pass-happy offense, ranking seventh in PFF’s passing grade among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season. He’s averaging 248.8 passing yards per game with 10 passing touchdowns this season. Herbert is also chipping in a career-high 25.8 rushing yards per game.
Herbert should be busy against a pass-funnel defense. The Colts have faced the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (63%) this season. Indianapolis was just shredded through the air by Jacoby Brissett and a Cardinals group of pass-catching weapons that lost Marvin Harrison Jr. early in the contest to a concussion. Herbert is a more imposing matchup, and he should light up the air.
Quentin Johnston started the week with a limited practice after missing last week’s games with a hamstring injury after limited practices all week. He’s not out of the woods to return this week just yet. Nonetheless, Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen are healthier, and my preferred stacking options with Herbert. McConkey just had his best game of the year, torching the Dolphins for seven receptions, 100 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Meanwhile, Allen is aging like fine wine. He’s tallied the following numbers this year.
- 73.5% route participation rate
- 8.6-yard aDOT
- 26.8% air yards share
- 22.3% target share
- 0.27 targets per route run
- 230% first-read rate
- 33 receptions (5.5 per game)
- 316 receiving yards (52.7 per game)
- 1.73 Y/RR
- Three touchdowns
- Seven end-zone targets
Allen doesn’t feel like the most exciting pick, but he’s a rock-solid bargain.
Speaking of bargains, Kimani Vidal is a punt-priced running back with the potential to help DFS squads after an explosion in Week 6. Whether Vidal owning the backfield was the plan entering the game, his play forced Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman to lean on him to lead the backfield. The second-year pro had 18 carries, 124 rushing yards, four targets, three receptions, 14 receiving yards and one touchdown last week. Vidal handled 18 of Los Angeles’s backfield’s 24 rush attempts (75%) and had a backfield-high 43.6% route participation rate last week. Vidal could turn into a pumpkin, but his workload and performance in Week 6 warrant chasing at his bargain salary this week.
Tyler Warren is having a superb rookie campaign. More importantly, he’s balling relative to his peers at tight end. Among 37 tight ends with at least 75 routes this year, Warren is tied for third in route participation rate (79.3%), tied for third in target share (21.3%), third in targets per route run (0.25), fourth in first-read rate (23.9%), third in receptions (29), first in receiving yards per game (61.7), second in yards per route run (2.36), tied for 10th in receiving touchdowns (two) and fourth in expected fantasy points per game (12.1).
Michael Pittman Jr. is tied for the WR1 value score (points per $1,000 of salary) at DraftKings and has the WR2 value score at FanDuel in our lineup optimizer’s projections. Pittman leads the Colts in route participation rate (83.3%), is second in air yards share (23.4%), second in target share (20.2%), second in first-read rate (23.2%), second in receptions (28), third in receiving yards per game (48.8), first in receiving touchdowns (four) and tied for first in end-zone targets (two). MPJ isn’t a world-beater, but he’s a rock-solid wide receiver at a bargain salary, and he could face less substantial target competition if Josh Downs can’t clear the NFL’s concussion protocol.
Core Studs
- Javonte Williams is projected as the RB4 at DraftKings and the RB5 at FanDuel in Week 7, with the RB3 value score at the former and tying for the RB3 value score at the latter. The Commanders have a run-funnel defense that’s also terrible. Washington has faced a 48% situation-neutral rush rate this year. Williams should be force-fed the ball against the Commanders. He’s had at least 15 touches in every game, reaching at least 17 in five of six contests. Williams has parlayed his robust usage into 559 scrimmage yards (93.2 per game), 22 receptions (3.7 per game) and six touchdowns.
- Jayden Daniels is projected as the QB1 with the QB2 value score at both DFS providers this week. According to Sumer Sports, the Cowboys have allowed the most expected points added (EPA) per pass this season. Dallas has allowed by far the most DraftKings points per game (27.2) and the most FanDuel points per game (26.0) this year. Daniels isn’t playing flawlessly this year, but he’s passing for 218.8 yards per game, tossed seven touchdowns, thrown only one interception and added 44.0 rushing yards per game in his sophomore campaign. He should destroy the Cowboys.
- Jonathan Taylor is projected as the RB1 in DFS this week, with the RB5 value score at DraftKings and tying for the RB3 value score at FanDuel. Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (100.5) and touchdowns (eight), and he’s also adding 3.3 receptions per game and 24.5 receiving yards per game. Taylor is in an eruption spot against a defense that’s cratered against the run. In the previous two weeks, the Chargers have tied for the fourth-most rushing yards per game (150.0) allowed while ceding the second-most yards per carry (6.12) and tying for the second-most rushing touchdowns (four) allowed.
Value Plays/Punts
- Rashee Rice will make his season debut this week against a leaky secondary. The Raiders have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (37.5) and sixth-most FanDuel points per game (30.3) to wide receivers this year. It’s a cushy matchup in Rice’s season debut. According to PFF, Rice has 129 receptions, 1,488 receiving yards, 2.35 yards per route run, 0.25 targets per route run and 10 touchdowns in 24 career games. If you eliminate Rice’s last game, when he ran only three routes before injuring his knee in Week 4 last year, Rice has averaged 5.6 receptions and 64.7 receiving yards per game in his career. He’s underpriced on DraftKings, where he has the WR1 value score.
- Stefon Diggs is a reasonable value at DraftKings, where he’s tied for the WR6 value score. However, he’s a steal at FanDuel, where he has the WR1 value score this week. Among 84 wide receivers with at least 125 routes this year, Diggs is 29th in target share (20.6%), tied for seventh in targets per route run (0.28), tied for 13th in receptions (32), 19th in receiving yards per game (64.5), third in yards per route run (2.91) and has one touchdown reception.
- Jalen Coker should make his season debut. He fully practiced last week. Nevertheless, the Panthers left him on the injured reserve (IR) for another week. The potential benefit of Carolina waiting another week is that the second-year pro might not face any playing time restrictions if they believe his conditioning is ready for a full workload. From Week 5 through the end of the 2024 season, Coker had a 74.7% route participation rate, 61.5% slot rate, 11.1-yard aDOT, 21.9% air yards share, 14.8% target share, 0.17 targets per route run, 3.2 receptions per game, 47.8 receiving yards per game, 1.86 Y/RR and two touchdown receptions. Coker’s slot rate is crucial for his inclusion in this section. The Jets have faced the fifth-highest target share (35.7%) to the slot this season.
Week 7 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Jonathan Taylor: 88.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
Taylor has exceeded 88.5 rushing yards in three of six games this year, with an average of 100.5 and a median of 89. And again, the Chargers have coughed up 150.0 rushing yards per game in their previous two games.
Jalen Coker: 28.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Coker had over 28.5 receiving yards in eight of the 10 games he had double-digit offensive snaps last year. His median outcome in those games was 38.5 receiving yards.
Brashard Smith: 10.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Rice will command targets. Nevertheless, the Chiefs have the NFL’s highest PROE (+9.7%) this season, and Brashard Smith has carved out a niche role. In the last three weeks, Smith had a 12.9% route participation rate, 10.2% target share, 0.69 targets per route run, nine receptions (3.0 per game), 80 receiving yards (26.7 per game) and 5.00 Y/RR.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
