Week 8 is upon us, and the elite running backs are the focal point of this week’s DFS slate. Two of the high-salaried superstars are featured among the core studs. Thankfully, one of the suggested game stacks is overflowing with salary-saving options. The second also has a mix of high-salaried, medium-salaried and bargain-salaried picks, too. The values/punts also feature a pivot off one of the stud running backs and an intriguing rookie wide receiver.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 8
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Saints vs. Buccaneers
Spread/Total: TB -4.0/47.0 Points
Different resources place the Saints at opposite ends of the play-calling tendencies spectrum. According to nfelo, New Orleans has the fourth-lowest pass rate over expectations (-5.7% PROE). However, per RotoViz’s pace app, the Saints are tied for the eighth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (59%). Indisputably, they’re playing fast.
Spencer Rattler and his talented duo of wideouts, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, should be busy against the Buccaneers. While it’s debatable how gamers should view New Orleans’ play-calling tendencies, Tampa Bay has a pass-funnel defense. The Bucs have faced a 60% situation-neutral pass rate this year.
Rattler isn’t flawless. Nevertheless, he’s passed for at least 225 yards in three straight games, thrown three touchdowns and rumbled for 53 yards in that period. The second-year quarterback has also played his best football at home. According to Pro Football Reference, Rattler has averaged 205.1 passing yards per game with seven touchdowns in eight career starts at home. Furthermore, Rattler’s 240 passing yards and 243 in games against the Buccaneers in Week 18 and Week 6 last season, respectively, were his highest passing outputs of his young career. Thus, Rattler is my favorite punt-priced quarterback.
Olave has posted back-to-back DFS-friendly showings, amassing precisely 98 receiving yards in consecutive games, and splashing paydirt twice in Week 7. New Orleans’ No. 1 wideout is also an underlying data darling. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 76 wide receivers with at least 125 routes this season, Olave is 14th in air yards share (38.3%), seventh in target share (28.5%), tied for sixth in targets per route run (0.29) and third in expected fantasy points per game.
Our lineup optimizer loves Olave this week. It projects him for the WR2 value score (points per $1,000 of salary) at DraftKings and the WR1 value score at FanDuel while projecting him as the WR8 at both DFS providers.
Shaheed is the club’s clear-cut No. 2 passing-game weapon, with a stellar 29.3% air yards share, 18.8% target share and 0.21 targets per route run. He offers salary relief as a pivot from Olave.
Additionally, Shaheed might be the better matchup-based selection. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the Bucs play two-high, middle of the field open coverage at the ninth-highest rate (53.3%) this season, and Shaheed has 0.18 targets per route run and 1.71 yards per route run (Y/RR) versus 0.24 and 1.07 for Olave against that type of coverage this season.
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are the favorites in this contest. Tampa Bay’s gunslinging quarterback is coming off his worst game of the year. However, he’s averaged 252.4 passing yards per game with 13 passing touchdowns, two interceptions and 22.6 rushing yards per game this year. So, the larger body of work this season is quite good.
Additionally, while the Saints’ coaching staff has changed, some of the personnel haven’t, and, per StatHead, Mayfield has completed 69.2% of his 133 pass attempts for 1,101 yards (275.3 per game), 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions in four starts against them as a member of the Bucs.
Emeka Egbuka is Mayfield’s top weapon, and the rookie wideout is cooking with gas in his first professional season. Egbuka has a 36.2% air yards share, 21.6% target share, 0.24 targets per route run, 26.9% first-read rate, 31 receptions (4.4 per game), 527 receiving yards (75.3 per game), 2.37 yards per route run, five touchdowns and five end-zone targets this season. We projected Egbuka as the WR4 at DraftKings and the WR5, with the WR3 value score at FanDuel this week.
Tez Johnson is a cheap piece of exposure to this contest. Since Week 5, Johnson has a 65.8% route participation rate, 20.8% air yards share, 13.2% target share, 0.18 targets per route run, nine receptions (3.0 per game), 162 receiving yards (54.0 per game), 2.10 yards per route run and two touchdowns. Tampa Bay will need him to continue to occupy a critical role after Mike Evans broke his collarbone on Monday Night Football in Week 7.
Game: Broncos vs. Cowboys
Spread/Total: DEN -3.5/50.5 Points
The Broncos are home favorites in the only game on the main slate with a total over 50. It will undoubtedly be a justifiably chalky game to stack. Denver’s triggerman will be featured below. Still, since the Broncos have a 59% situation-neutral pass rate this year, and the Cowboys have permitted the second-most DraftKings points per game (41.4) and the most FanDuel points per game (34.1) to wideouts, two of Denver’s wide receivers are enticing DFS selections.
Courtland Sutton is the club’s top dog in the passing attack. He’s pacing the Broncos in route participation (80.0%), air yards share (31.3%), target share (19.1%), first-read rate (24.7%), receptions (33 at 4.7 per game), receiving yards (469 at 67.0 per game), yards per route run (2.09) and receiving touchdowns (three). Sutton is projected as the WR5 at DraftKings and the WR4 at FanDuel, with the WR3 value score at the former and tied for the WR5 value score at the latter.
Troy Franklin is a nifty value option with better underlying data than surface stats. The second-year wideout has a 70.7% route participation rate, 30.9% air yards share, 17.6% target share, 0.23 targets per route run, 27 receptions (3.9 per game), 269 receiving yards (38.4 per game), two receiving touchdowns and three end-zone targets. Franklin’s end-zone targets are tied for the most on the team with Sutton. Moreover, his 13.7 expected fantasy points per game are notably more than his 10.5 DraftKings points per game and 8.4 FanDuel points per game. Franklin can play closer to his expected fantasy production in a mouthwatering matchup.
J.K. Dobbins also has a drool-inducing matchup. Since Week 4, Dallas has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (165.0), 5.37 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, Dobbins has handled 105 of Denver’s backfield’s 147 rush attempts (71.4%) this season, converting his hefty workload into 523 yards (74.7 per game), 4.98 yards per carry, a 7.6% explosive run rate and four touchdowns.
Teams can take advantage of the Cowboys through the air or on the ground. Interestingly, Dallas is tied for facing the fifth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (47%) this year. As a result, Dobbins is my favorite sub-$6,000 salary running back at DraftKings and an enticing pick at FanDuel.
Teams are choosing to attack the Broncos in the slot, likely due to Patrick Surtain mostly playing on the perimeter. Denver has faced the fourth-highest target rate to the slot (36.1%) this season and the highest (42.6%) since Week 4. Jake Ferguson has a 51.0% slot rate this year, and CeeDee Lamb‘s 29.7% slot rate is much higher than George Pickens‘ 10.4% slot rate.
Surtain could shadow Lamb and follow him into the slot. Yet, since Pickens is also a game-changing wideout, Surtain might not travel with Lamb. We project Lamb and Ferguson as the WR2 and the TE2 at both DFS providers in Week 8.
Javonte Williams is in a revenge spot against his former employer. The revenge narrative is fun, as Rico Dowdle recently steamrolled the Cowboys in a similar situation. Still, it’s not quantifiable, and the case for using Williams in DFS revolves around his bell-cow role and productivity for the Cowboys. Williams has had at least 92 scrimmage yards in five of seven games this year, reaching triple-digit scrimmage yards four times. He has scored at least one touchdown in all four games in which he amassed at least 100 scrimmage yards, and Williams scored two touchdowns with 62 scrimmage yards in Week 1.
Core Studs
- Bijan Robinson is projected to be the highest scorer at all positions at both DFS sites this week, with the RB1 value score at each of them as well. Robinson is coming off a down game by his standards, which is an absurd declaration after he tallied 92 scrimmage yards, six receptions and a touchdown against the 49ers. Robinson has reached at least 111 scrimmage yards in his other five contests, recorded at least three receptions in every game and scored a touchdown in four of five contests, including all three at home. Robinson is averaging 152.3 scrimmage yards per game and 5.0 receptions per game with four touchdowns this year and has a mouthwatering matchup this week.
- Jonathan Taylor is projected to be the RB3 at DraftKings and the RB2 at FanDuel, with the RB3 value score at the latter. Taylor should have an ideal game script since the Colts are 14.0-point favorites at home. He’s leading the NFL in rushing yards per game (99.6) and rushing touchdowns (10). Taylor has also chipped in 3.3 receptions per game, 26.4 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown through seven games. He should run roughshod over a defense that’s permitted the 10th-most rushing yards per game (135.0) and six rushing touchdowns since Week 4, and the Titans will be without stud defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons.
- Bo Nix has the QB5 projection this week. The Broncos were shut out through three quarters last week but exploded for 33 points in the fourth quarter, and Nix finished the game with 279 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 48 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The second-year pro is a dual-threat quarterback, and he’s played better at home than on the road. In 11 career games at home, Nix has averaged 253.2 passing yards per game with 24 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 22.8 rushing yards per game and five rushing touchdowns.
Value Plays/Punts
- Cade Otton has benefited from Evans and Chris Godwin‘s absences in the past. Egbuka is Tampa Bay’s alpha, and Johnson is an electrifying option, but Otton should have a critical role in Tampa Bay’s passing attack. Since Week 5, he’s had an 18.9% target share, 0.22 targets per route run, 16 receptions (5.3 per game), 197 receiving yards (65.7 per game) and 2.14 Y/RR.
- Chimere Dike had his first DFS-friendly game in Week 7 in Mike McCoy’s first game as the club’s interim head coach. He secured all four of his targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. Dike had a 66.7% route participation rate, 30.4% air yards share, 14.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 11.8% target share, 0.15 targets per route run, 17.6% first-read rate and 2.69 Y/RR last week. The Titans granted Tyler Lockett his release this week after he requested it, and Lockett had a 23.1% route participation rate last week. Dike should soak up some or all of Lockett’s vacated routes. Finally, the Colts have permitted the most DraftKings points per game (41.8) and the second-most FanDuel points per game (33.2) to wide receivers this year, making Dike an enticing pick.
- I don’t usually include a GPP-only suggestion among the values/punts. However, Tyler Allgeier is a worthwhile exception. What if you could use Taylor and Christian McCaffrey while also getting exposure to Atlanta’s backfield in a Charmin-soft matchup against the Dolphins? Would that be something you’d be interested in? You’re in luck. Obviously, Allgeier isn’t Robinson. Nonetheless, Allgeier has tallied 11, 16 and 17 touches in Atlanta’s three victories this year. The Falcons are 7.5-point favorites against the hapless Dolphins. Atlanta should roll, and Miami can’t stop the run. The Dolphins have coughed up the most rushing yards per game (170.0), 5.76 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns since Week 4.
Week 8 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Derrick Henry: 83.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
The Bears have coughed up 136.0 rushing yards per game at 5.16 yards per carry since Week 4. Derrick Henry snapped a four-game drought before Baltimore’s Week 7 bye, gashing the Rams for 122 rushing yards on 24 attempts in Week 6. The Ravens are 6.5-point favorites at home, and Lamar Jackson is expected back this week, setting the stage for King Henry to operate with a lead and benefit from the threat of Jackson’s legs. According to StatHead, in 14 wins since last year, Henry has bested 83.5 rushing yards 11 times, with a median of 139. We project King Henry to rush for 86.1 yards against the Bears this week.
Cade Otton: 41.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Otton was an afterthought earlier this year, but he’s emerged as a critical piece of Tampa Bay’s injury-ravaged pass-catching corps. Otton has produced 65, 51 and 81 receiving yards in his previous three games. He has wiggle room to take a step back and still clear 41.5 receiving yards.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
