Week 5 is the first with byes, and there’s another international contest. So, this week’s main NFL DFS slate has 10 games. Two stand out as especially enticing to stack. A few players from those games are among the top core studs and values/punts. Yet, there are a few others who made the cut for the studs and values/punts.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 5
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Jets vs. Cowboys
Spread/Total: DAL -2.5/47.5 Points
The Jets and Cowboys have two of the most incompetent defenses in the NFL. According to Sumer Sports, Gang Green has allowed the fifth-most expected points added (EPA) per play, the third-most EPA per pass and the 16th-most EPA per rush. Dallas is even more pitiful, tying for the most EPA per play allowed, the second-highest success rate allowed, the most EPA per pass allowed and tying for the seventh-most EPA per rush allowed this season.
Traditional measures also paint an ugly picture of these defenses. According to Pro Football Reference, the Cowboys have allowed the second-most yards per play (6.4) and the second-most points per game (33.0), and the Jets are tied for the 13th-most yards allowed per play (5.4) and tied for the fourth-most points allowed per game (30.0)
Two members of the Jets and one from the Cowboys will be featured below. Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are enticing game-stacking options who aren’t included below. Hall’s explosiveness is back as a runner this year, and he’s a talented pass-catching option.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 43 running backs with at least 25 rush attempts this season, Hall is first in explosive run rate (11.5%). He’s averaging 59.5 rushing yards per game. In addition, Hall has a 15.0% target share, 0.30 targets per route run, 13 receptions (3.25 per game), 108 receiving yards (27 per game) and 2.00 yards per route run. Per Pro Football Reference, Dallas has yielded the third-most receiving yards per game (57.0) and tied for the fourth-most receptions per game (5.75) permitted to running backs this season. Hall should be game-script proof, and he boasts a high ceiling against the Cowboys. He’s also a lineup optimizer darling, projecting as the RB5 at DraftKings and the RB6 at FanDuel, with the RB1 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 of salary) at the former and the RB3 value score at the latter.
Taylor is a punt-priced tight end. Dallas’s pass defense is pitiful, and Taylor is involved in New York’s passing attack. He has the third-highest route participation rate (72.5%) on the club, and his 15.0% target share and 0.16 targets per route run are adequate for his salary.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Cowboys are tied for the sixth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (60%) this year. Dak Prescott is cooking with gas in Brian Schottenheimer’s offense this season. Among 33 quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks this season, Prescott is Pro Football Focus’s (PFF’s) second-highest graded passer, fourth in big-time throw rate (6.7 BTT%), first in passing yards (1,119) and tied for 14th in passing touchdowns (six).
Prescott will almost certainly be force-feeding targets to George Pickens and Jake Ferguson this week. CeeDee Lamb hurt his ankle after running only three routes in Week 3, leaving essentially a two-game sample of Pickens’ and Ferguson’s work sans Dallas’s stud No. 1 wideout. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in those games, Pickens had a 41.7% air yards share, 23.5% target share, 13 receptions, 202 receiving yards, three touchdowns, 27.1 DraftKings points per game, 23.9 FanDuel points per game and 18.9 expected fantasy points per game. Ferguson was heavily involved as well, with a 24.7% target share, 0.34 targets per route run, 20 receptions, 122 receiving yards, one touchdown, 20.6 DraftKings points per game, 15.6 FanDuel points per game and 17.2 expected fantasy points per game.
Jalen Tolbert is a cheap contrarian option in tournaments. He was second on the Cowboys in route participation (83.0%) and air yards share (25.9%) in the previous two weeks, and KaVontae Turpin might miss this week with a foot injury, which could shift a few more opportunities in Tolbert’s direction.
Game: Panthers vs. Dolphins
Spread/Total: MIA -1.5/44.5 Points
Tetairoa McMillan is a positive regression candidate. Among 83 wideouts with at least 75 routes this season, T-Mac is tied for 15th in air yards share (39.5%), 23rd in target share (22.0%), tied for 26th in targets per route run (0.23), tied for eighth in end-zone targets (three) and tied for 13th in expected fantasy points per game (15.5). The Dolphins have allowed the second-most EPA per pass, making this a get-right spot for T-Mac.
Tommy Tremble is a sweet punt if Ja’Tavion Sanders‘ ankle injury sidelines him again this week. Without Sanders last week, Tremble had a 57.9% route participation rate, seven targets, a 19.4% target share, 0.32 targets per route run, five receptions, 42 receiving yards, 1.91 yards per route run and one touchdown. Tremble’s matchup is outstanding this week. The Dolphins have allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game (16.6) and the second-most FanDuel points per game (13.6) to tight ends this season.
Miami’s offense is highly concentrated, and Tyreek Hill is no longer part of the picture. The offense should funnel through two speedsters and one pass-catching tight end. De’Von Achane has had 11, 21, 21 and 22 opportunities (rushes and targets) in four games this year, and another 20-plus opportunities should be in the cards for him again this week. He’s scored a touchdown in three of four contests, bested 90 scrimmage yards in three straight and averaged 4.8 receptions per game this season.
Achane should eviscerate the Panthers on the ground and through the air. Carolina has permitted 110 rushing yards per game, 4.5 receptions per game, 30.3 receiving yards per game and 0.75 touchdowns per game to running backs this season. Achane is projected as the RB3 at DraftKings and FanDuel, with the RB3 value score at the former and the RB1 value score at the latter.
The speedy running back is an excellent one-off or skinny-stacking option with T-Mac or Tremble. He’s also a viable stacking option with Tua Tagovailoa. Miami’s 60% situation-neutral pass rate this season is tied for the sixth-highest mark this year. Gamers might be less inclined to use Tua without Hill. Still, Tua has thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight games and taken zero sacks in his previous two contests. He’s an intriguing double-stacking option at quarterback since his passing production entirely drives his fantasy value, and if he hits, he’ll likely bring multiple pass-catching options with him.
One of those options will be highlighted as a value/punt. However, Darren Waller is also a nifty stacking option, albeit with the risk of turning into a pumpkin. Nevertheless, Waller had two touchdowns in his season debut in Week 4. While chasing touchdowns can often lead DFS gamers astray, Waller was targeted on four of his 10 routes, had four first-read targets and had two end-zone targets. He was fed the ball in his limited role, and his red-zone prowess makes him a viable touchdown-chasing option.
Core Studs
- Jahmyr Gibbs is projected as the RB1 at DraftKings and the co-RB1 at FanDuel. He’s tied for the RB4 value score at DraftKings and has the RB5 value score at FanDuel. Gibbs has had at least 15 touches in every game, scored at least one touchdown in three straight, and rattled off 104, 99 and 97 scrimmage yards in the previous three weeks. He’s in an eruption spot against Cincinnati’s pitiful defense. The Bengals have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game (32.5) and the second-most FanDuel points per game (28.5) to running backs this season.
- Garrett Wilson is projected as the WR3 at both DFS outlets, with the WR2 value score at DraftKings and tying for the WR7 value score at FanDuel. Among 83 wide receivers with at least 75 routes this season, Wilson is first in route participation (96.4%), tied for fourth in air yards share (46.9%), second in target share (33.6%), first in first-read rate (46.9%), 11th in yards per route run (2.34) and 12th in expected fantasy points per game (15.7). He should feast against a comically inept defense that’s surrendered the most DraftKings points per game (51.2) and the most FanDuel points per game (42.0) to wide receivers this season.
- Javonte Williams is projected as a top-10 running back at both DFS providers this week. He’s also tied for the RB4 value score at DraftKings and has the RB6 value score at FanDuel in Week 5. Williams has turned back the clock to pre-knee-surgery form after two lackluster campaigns. Among 43 running backs with at least 25 rush attempts this year, Williams is seventh in rushing yards per game (78.0), 11th in yards per carry (4.95), 19th in explosive run rate (4.8%), sixth in stuff rate (36.5%), tied for second in rushing touchdowns (four) and fourth in expected fantasy points per game (18.3) because he’s also involved as a pass-catching option.
Value Plays/Punts
- Justin Fields has the highest value score at all positions at both DFS outlets. The dual-threat quarterback can break a DFS slate, but his inconsistency as a passer makes him volatile. Nevertheless, Fields just completed 20 of 27 passes (74.1%) for 226 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins last week, his second effort in three starts in which he completed over 72% of his passes for 215-plus passing yards. Fields has also rushed for 59.3 yards per game and three touchdowns in three starts this year. Dallas’s pitiful defense can bring the best out of Fields this week.
- Jaylen Waddle is tied for the WR5 value score at DraftKings and has the WR1 value score at FanDuel this week. Waddle has played only one game without Hill since the Dolphins acquired Hill in 2022. That contest was in Week 15 in 2023, and Waddle erupted for eight receptions, 142 receiving yards and one touchdown on an 88.2% air yards share, 34.6% target share, 0.39 targets per route run and a 38.1% first-read share. Obviously, it’s unwise to go overboard extrapolating a one-game sample, but Waddle will likely be force-fed the ball.
- Ideally, Derek Stingley‘s oblique issue that sidelined him for Wednesday’s practice won’t keep him out this week, as Houston’s talented defense has a chance to tee off against Cooper Rush and the injury-depleted Ravens. Lamar Jackson took an eye-popping 10 sacks on 64 dropbacks in the previous two weeks. Interestingly, Rush didn’t take any sacks on 13 dropbacks in Week 4. Nevertheless, Baltimore’s offense is one-dimensional, assuming Jackson’s hamstring issue sidelines him this week. Meanwhile, the Texans are tied for the seventh-most sacks (11) and tied for the seventh-fewest yards allowed per play (4.7) this season. They have forced only three turnovers this year, but Rush has a 4.1% turnover-worthy play rate in his career, and he can turn the ball over if he’s stuck in a negative game script against the favored Texans.
Week 5 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Garrett Wilson: 67.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Wilson has cleared 67.5 receiving yards in three of four games this year. According to StatHead, the Cowboys have coughed up 167 receiving yards to Malik Nabers, 142 to Wan’Dale Robinson, 101 to Luther Burden, 62 to Rome Odunze, 61 to Darius Slayton, 59 to Jahan Dotson, 58 to Romeo Doubs and 58 to Matthew Golden this year. Wilson is a target-earner in the Nabers’ realm and should be the latest wideout to barbecue Dallas.
Jake Ferguson: 41.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Ferguson has produced 23, 78, 82 and 40 receiving yards in four games this season, good for an average of 55.8 per game, and a median of 59. The Jets haven’t allowed more than 37 receiving yards to a tight end this season. However, Dalton Kincaid (37 receiving yards), Dawson Knox (19 receiving yards) and Jackson Hawes (five receiving yards) combined for 61 receiving yards against the Jets, Pat Freiermuth (28 receiving yards) and Jonnu Smith (15 receiving yards) combined for 43 and Waller (27 receiving yards) and Julian Hill (19 receiving yards) combined for 46. Those tight ends shared time with each other, while Ferguson has consolidated Dallas’s tight end room’s receiving work. Thus, we project Ferguson to have 48.3 receiving yards against the Jets.
David Montgomery: 51.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
The Lions are 10.5-point favorites against the barely-there Bengals. Excluding the final two minutes of the first half, the Lions have run on 66% of their plays when leading by at least three points this season. There’s plenty of meat on the bone for Gibbs and David Montgomery to run roughshod over the Bengals. Monty has averaged 61.3 rushing yards per game this season, clearing 51.5 in two of three victories. We project him to rush for 54.4 yards against a defense permitting the second-most rushing yards per game (123.5) to running backs this year.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
