The Primer: Week 6 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC -2.5, O/U 52.5
• Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Patrick Mahomes II
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Sam LaPorta

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Jared Goff has been playing incredible football, but because of his lack of rushing production and the fact that he’s 14th in passing yards per game, he’s only QB18 in fantasy points per game. Goff has been playing at a top-tier level, though. Among 40 passers, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, first in passing touchdowns, fifth in highly accurate throw rate, and 11th in hero throw rate. Kansas City isn’t a pushover defense, but Goff should have success this week. The Chiefs have given up the 14th-fewest yards per attempt and the ninth-lowest passer rating, but they have also yielded the 13th-highest CPOE and rank 17th in success rate per dropback. The secret sauce for Goff lies in Detroit’s play-action usage. Goff has the third-highest play-action rate while ranking fourth in yards per attempt and second in passing touchdowns when utilizing play-action. The Chiefs have given up the highest yards per attempt and the third-highest passer rating to play-action.

David Montgomery (RB)

David Montgomery has been motoring along as the RB18 in fantasy points per game. He has been a touchdown machine with the 14th-most red zone touches and four scores in five games. Montgomery has averaged 13.6 touches and 70.2 total yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks tenth in explosive run rate and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery should have another nice day in Week 6. Kansas City has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest stuff rate, the ninth-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and ranks 15th in success rate to zone runs (Montgomery 67.2% zone).

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Since his return to the lineup, Xavier Worthy has been the WR24 in fantasy points per game. He has seen a 21.8% target share with a 40.4% air-yard share with 62.5 receiving yards per game (2.02 yards per route run) and a 25.5% first-read share. Worthy has three end zone targets in his last two games while leading the team with six deep targets. Worthy should smash this week against a banged-up secondary that was already allowing the tenth-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Detroit has also allowed the third-most deep passing yards per game while ranking 17th in deep completion rate.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Travis Kelce (TE)

Travis Kelce is the TE10 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 16.4% target share with 48.6 receiving yards per game (1.54 yards per route run) and a 20.5% first-read share. He is tied for third amongst tight ends with five red zone targets. Kelce should have a solid stat line this week, but don’t expect a monster outing. Detroit has allowed the 11th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends while also ranking 14th in receiving yards allowed. The Lions have given up the fifth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to the position, so Kecle could get in the end zone this week to help boost his fantasy day.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Isiah Pacheco (RB)

Isiah Pacheco has been barely playable this season as the RB46 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged only 9.6 touches per game with 41.8 total yards. Kareem Hunt has dwarfed him in red zone usage with ten carries inside the 20-yard line to Pacheco’s four. It’s not like Pacheco has run well, either, with only a 13% missed tackle rate and 2.44 yards after contact per attempt. Detroit will shut him down again this week. The Lions have allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

Kareem Hunt has been and continues to be a touchdown-dependent flex play. He is averaging only 9.8 touches and 41.6 total yards, but he has been the Chiefs’ preferred red zone back. Hunt has ten red zone rushing attempts while Isiah Pacheco has only four. Hunt has been an inefficient runner with only a 9% missed tackle rate and 2.23 yards after contact per attempt. He’ll have to live off his touchdown equity again this week. The Lions have allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt. If Hunt doesn’t score this week, you’ll likely be sad that you played him.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Jameson Williams has been incredibly disappointing this season. We heard all the hype all offseason about the growth of his role and skillset, yet he’s just been Detroit’s field stretcher again this season. Williams is the WR63 in fantasy points per game, with 40% of his target volume coming via deep shots (he leads Detroit in deep targets). This isn’t the matchup to covet Williams’ role in the offense. Kansas City has allowed the sixth-fewest deep passing yards per game, the seventh-lowest deep completion rate, and the lowest deep passer rating. Even if you don’t believe me with that angle, then let’s talk about the coverage matchup. Kansas City has the third-highest two high rate (62.4%). Against two high, Williams has only an 8.8% target share, 1.32 yards per route run, and an 11.4% first-read share. Sit Williams this week.

**Only Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce surpassed 60% route shares for Kansas City last week. Marquise Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton all had only 43.5-54.3% route shares. The committee approach for the wide receiver position for Kansas City works well for their offense, but it won’t get it done for fantasy purposes for fantasy GMs for Week 6.**

PHI vs. NYG | DEN vs. NYJ | ARI vs. IND | LAR vs. BAL | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. JAC | LAC vs. MIA | DAL vs. CAR | NE vs. NO | TEN vs. LV | SF vs. TB | CIN vs. GB | DET vs. KC | BUF vs. ATL | CHI vs. WAS

Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons

• BUF -4.5, O/U 49.5
• Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• Bijan Robinson
• James Cook
• Drake London

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Tyler Allgeier (RB)

Tyler Allgeier is a volatile flex play this week. In Atlanta’s two wins, he has averaged 16.5 touches and 65.5 total yards. In their two losses, his usage has dipped to six touches and 14 total yards on average. The matchup is nice for Allgeier this week, but if Atlanta is trailing a ton in this game, Allgeier is likely a lineup killer in Week 6. Allgeier has a strong 7% explosive run rate with a forgettable 12% missed tackle rate and only 1.60 yards after contact per attempt. Buffalo has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt. If he gets the work this week, he should be a nice flex. That’s a big if, though.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Khalil Shakir has been a steady WR3 as the WR35 in fantasy points per game. Shakir has finished as a top-36 wide receiver in three of his five games in weekly scoring (WR26, WR25, WR15). He has four red zone targets and two scores this season. Shakir has a 17.5% target share with 45.2 receiving yards per game (1.78 yards per route run) and a 17.7% first-read share. This week, he faces an Atlanta secondary that has featured single high at the highest rate in the NFL (68.5%). Against single high, Shakir has seen his numbers rise with a 20.5% target share, 2.38 yards per route run, and a 21.1% first-read share. Shakir has a tough matchup against a secondary that has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers, but he should lead the way as Josh Allen‘s trusted weapon. It all balances out to make him a solid flex for Week 6.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Michael Penix Jr. (QB)

Michael Penix Jr. has been hit-or-miss this season with two QB1 outings (QB10, QB12) and two games outside the top 30 fantasy quarterbacks for the week (QB32, QB31). Among 40 qualifying passers, Penix Jr. is 14th in yards per attempt, 17th in passing yards per game, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in catchable target rate. Penix Jr. looks headed for another down game. Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game, the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, and the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Keon Coleman was benched to begin last week’s game, so we’ll see how his playing shifts out this week. I expect that he’ll be out there to start the game this week, but the mental brain farts aren’t new for Coleman, sadly. Coleman has been relatively quiet after his big Week 1 game. He has only one red zone target across his last four games and hasn’t surpassed 50 receiving yards in any of those contests. Coleman has an 18.8% target share with 1.75 yards per route run (45.2 receiving yards per game) and a 26% first-read share. This week, he faces an Atlanta secondary that has featured single high at the highest rate in the NFL (68.5%). Against single high, Coleman has an 18.2% target share, 1.67 yards per route run, and a team-leading 24.6% first-read share. Atlanta has shut down perimeter wide receivers, giving up the 12th-fewest PPR points per target and the third-fewest receiving yards per game. Sit Coleman this week.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Darnell Mooney has been ruled out for Week 6.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

Kyle Pitts has been a nice surprise this season as the TE9 in fantasy points per game. He has only one deep target and a red zone target so far. Pitts has an 18.2% target share, 1.64 yards per route run (51.3 receiving yards per game), and a 15.7% first-read share. Fantasy GMs shouldn’t expect much from Pitts this week, though. The Bills have the fourth-highest rate of two high (61%). Against two high, Pitts has seen his target share drop to 15.4% with 1.58 yards per route run and a 14.3% first-read share. Buffalo has been tough on tight ends over the last few seasons. This year, Buffalo has allowed the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving yards to the position. Look for a streamer this week instead of starting Pitts.

PHI vs. NYG | DEN vs. NYJ | ARI vs. IND | LAR vs. BAL | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. JAC | LAC vs. MIA | DAL vs. CAR | NE vs. NO | TEN vs. LV | SF vs. TB | CIN vs. GB | DET vs. KC | BUF vs. ATL | CHI vs. WAS

Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -4.5, O/U 49.5
• Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jayden Daniels
• Rome Odunze
• Deebo Samuel Sr.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Caleb Williams is the QB6 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 outings in his four games (QB9, QB1). Her per-dropback metrics haven’t been nearly as good as his fantasy production. Among 40 qualifying passers, he ranks 18th in yards per attempt, 32nd in highly accurate throw rate, 35th in catchable target rate, and he has the sixth-highest off-target rate. Williams and Ben Johnson are still smoothing out the wrinkles in the offense, but Williams has to show more consistency moving forward. He could easily smash again this week. The Commanders’ pass defense hasn’t been great this season, allowing the fifth-most yards per attempt, the ninth-most passing yards per game, and the tenth-highest CPOE and passer rating. Williams is a volatile fantasy option that could pay off handsomely this week.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)

Last week, Bill SMASHED as the RB5 in fantasy with 16 touches and 150 total yards (two scores). He played a season-high 50.9% of snaps with 14 of 20 running back carries, a 31.3% route share (season-high), and a 7.7% target share (season-high). Among 47 qualifying backs, Bill ranks second in explosive run rate and third in yards after contact per attempt. SZN of Bill looked to be on hold, but we are so back! He should rip the Bears’ run defense in half this week. Chicago has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest explosive run rate, and the highest missed tackle rate. Smash Bill. Smash.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Last week, on my first pass through the data and looking at the matchup for Zach Ertz, I thought he was going to smash, but when I looked at the coverage data further for the Bolts, I realized I was wrong and pivoted with last Friday’s update. I hope you checked back into the Primer on Friday and read my update because I was fading Ertz, and that move was correct, as he had only one target and zero fantasy points. This is the week to go back to Ertz with the Bears’ coverage usage. They have the second-highest two high usage in the NFL (62.6%). They have utilized two high at least 56.5% of their defensive snaps weekly. This season against two high, Ertz has a 20.8% target share, 2.26 yards per route run, and a 32.3% first-read share. The Bears are a neutral matchup for Ertz, ranking 17th in fantasy points per game and 20th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

D’Andre Swift has been a snooze-worthy volume-based RB2 this season (RB24). Swift is 14th in snap share, ninth in opportunity share, 20th in weighted opportunities, and 14th in targets among running backs. Among 47 qualifying backs, he ranks 39th in explosive run rate and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. He has averaged 17.3 touches and 68.1 total yards. Washington is a middle-of-the-road run defense, ranking 16th in rushing yards per game, 14th in yards after contact per attempt, and allowing the tenth-lowest rushing success rate. Swift is a solid volume bet again this week, but there’s not much chance of a ceiling performance.

DJ Moore (WR)

It has been a disappointing season for D.J. Moore so far as the WR44 in fantasy points per game. He has only two red zone targets and two deep targets this season. Moore has only one top-36 weekly finish this season (WR29). He has a 15.8% target share, a 17.5% air-yard share, 1.36 yards per route run (43.3 receiving yards per game), and a 15.4% first-read share. He has a nice matchup this week, which gives him some flex viability. Washington has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Chris Rodriguez (RB)

Last week, Chris Rodriguez handled a season-low 25.4% snap share and five carries for seven rushing yards. The backfield looks to be moving more in the direction of Bill. Rodriguez is a solid stash/handcuff, but I’m not running him out there this week. The matchup is nice, but his role and volume are in question now. Rodriguez might miss this week’s game (calf). He has logged only DNPs this week.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

Terry McLaurin has been ruled out for Week 6.

PHI vs. NYG | DEN vs. NYJ | ARI vs. IND | LAR vs. BAL | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. JAC | LAC vs. MIA | DAL vs. CAR | NE vs. NO | TEN vs. LV | SF vs. TB | CIN vs. GB | DET vs. KC | BUF vs. ATL | CHI vs. WAS

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*