The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans

• HOU -1.5, O/U 39.5
• Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Woody Marks (RB)

Houston can’t decide who they want to be their lead back. Over the last three games, Woody Marks has played anywhere from 38.6-63.2% of the snaps while averaging 11.6 touches and 60.7 total yards. Marks hasn’t been anything special as a rusher with a 5% missed tackle rate and 2.18 yards after contact per attempt. He’s likely getting stonewalled this week. Since Week 4, Denver has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, and the third-lowest yards before contact per attempt. He could save his fantasy day through the air this week, though. Denver has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the highest yards per reception to running backs. Since Week 4, Marks has had a 35% route share, a 10.2% target share, 29.8 receiving yards per game, and 2.09 yards per route run. He’s a stronger flex play in PPR formats.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Bo Nix (QB)

The last two games for Bo Nix have dramatically helped his full-season totals as he’s now the QB7 in fantasy points per game. As a passer, his numbers are still rough to look at. Among 45 qualifying passers, Nix ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, 40th in catchable target rate, and he has the 11th-highest off-target rate. I don’t want to play Nix this week unless I’m out of other options. Since Week 4, Houston has been a shutdown pass defense, allowing the second-lowest yards per attempt and CPOE, and the lowest passing yards per game and success rate per dropback. Nix will have to display some 2024 magic this week to overcome this matchup.

C.J. Stroud (QB)

C.J. Stroud has had encouraging QB1 outings in two of his last three games (QB1, QB11), but he’s still the QB16 in fantasy points per game, and that’s how he should be viewed this week as a QB2 in fantasy. Among 45 qualifying passers, Stroud ranks 27th in yards per attempt, 24th in highly accurate throw rate, 26th in catchable target rate, and he has the seventh-highest off-target rate. Despite losing Patrick Surtain, Denver will still field one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Since Week 4, they have held passers to the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, the lowest CPOE, and the second-lowest success rate per dropback.

J.K. Dobbins (RB)

J.K. Dobbins continues to make his money on early downs this season as the RB22 in fantasy points per game. He has no more than two targets or ten receiving yards in any game this season. Dobbins has averaged 16.1 touches and 83.3 total yards. Among 60 qualifying backs, he ranks second in explosive run rate and 12th in missed tackle rate. Dobbins will need to get into the end zone this week to save his fantasy day. Since Week 4, Houston has been a stout run defense, holding backs to the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-lowest explosive run rate.

Nick Chubb (RB)

Nick Chubb has been the early down portion of the Houston backfield committee. Since Week 4, he has played 25-43.8% of the snaps weekly, averaging 12.8 touches and 50.8 total yards. Chubb has been a shell of his former self with only an 8% missed tackle rate and 2.11 yards after contact per attempt. This isn’t the week to consider flexing him. Denver has been an elite run defense. Since Week 4, Denver has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, and the third-lowest yards before contact per attempt.

RJ Harvey (RB)

I would love to pen a scintillating blurb for RJ Harvey after his three-touchdown performance in Week 8, but he ran hot with scores last week while his role didn’t change. Harvey played only 27% of the snaps while handling only eight touches and producing 51 total yards. Harvey’s matchup is too tough, and he’s not likely to see enough volume on the ground or through the air to overcome it. Since Week 4, Houston has been a stout run defense, holding backs to the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-lowest explosive run rate. The Texans have also allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and zero receiving touchdowns to backs. Sit Harvey.

Nico Collins (WR)

Nico Collins has had a disappointing season to this point and I don’t know if that changes this week. He is the WR29 in fantasy points per game with six red zone targets and seven deep targets. Collins has a 23.4% target share with 56.5 receiving yards per game (2.02 yards per route run), and a 27.2% first-read share. Denver has the ninth-highest single high rate this season (56%). Against single high, Collins has a 27% target per route run rate and 2.26 yards per route run. He could have a strong game this week with Patrick Surtain ll out, but Denver will still field a strong secondary in Week 9. Denver has allowed the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers this season.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Courtland Sutton has been a stable WR2 this season as the WR22 in fantasy points per game. Sutton has a 19.3% target share, a 31% air-yard share, 67 receiving yards per game, 2.17 yards per route run, and a 24.1% first-read share. He ranks second on the team with six red zone targets and third with seven deep targets. This week, he could see shadow coverage from Derek Stingley, who followed Calvin Ridley, Jameson Williams, and Brian Thomas Jr. on 61.1-67.9% of their routes. None of these receivers scored in Stingley’s coverage, and only Thomas Jr. surpassed six receiving yards with Stingley glued to them. Outside of possible shadow coverage, the coverage structure is also worrisome for Sutton this week. Since Week 7, Houston has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (70.4%). Against two high, his target per route run rate has dipped to 16% with only 1.70 yards per route run. Adjust your Week 9 expectations for Sutton. Since Week 4, Houston has allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Troy Franklin (WR)

I hope ya got Troy Franklin into your lineups as a flex last week. Franklin was amazing, finishing as the WR1 for the week. That was his third top-36 weekly finish for the season. Franklin has been a usage darling this season with the third-most red zone targets and the 17th-most deep targets (tied). Franklin has an 18.6% target share with 44.8 receiving yards per game (1.61 yards per route run), and a 20.6% first-read share. Houston has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (70.4%). Against two high, Franklin has seen his target per route run rate dip to 22% with only 1.14 yards per route run. This isn’t the week to plug him back in as a flex play. Since Week 4, Houston has allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

*The entire HOU wide receiver room could be a giant committee approach this week behind Nico Collins. I do not have enough faith in any player on that wide receiver depth chart outside of possibly Collins this week to plug into a lineup. Denver has allowed the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers and the seventh-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to slot receivers.*

BAL vs. MIA | CAR vs. GB | MIN vs. DET | CHI vs. CIN | DEN vs. HOU | SF vs. NYG | IND vs. PIT | LAC vs. TEN | ATL vs. NE | JAC vs. LV | NO vs. LAR | KC vs. BUF | SEA vs. WAS | ARI vs. DAL

San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants

• SF -2.5, O/U 48.5
• San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Christian McCaffrey
• George Kittle

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jaxson Dart (QB)

Since Week 4, Jaxson Dart has been the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Over the last two weeks, his rushing production has dropped off with only 5.5 rushing attempts and 14 rushing yards per game after starting his NFL career with at least 54 rushing yards in each of his first three games. Dart has scored on the ground in four of five games. I don’t see his rushing touchdown equity going away, though. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 37th in highly accurate throw rate, ninth in hero throw rate, and 24th in catchable target rate. Dart should have another strong game in Week 9. The 49ers’ pass defense has been struggling. Since Week 4, they have allowed the sixth-most yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing yards per game, the ninth-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback. During that stretch, San Francisco also ranks dead last in pressure rate, so Dart should have time to deal from the pocket.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

With Cam Skattebo‘s unfortunate injury last week, Tyrone Tracy Jr. will be the team’s workhorse moving forward. Last week, in the second half, he played 74% of the snaps with five of seven running back carries and a 61.1% route share. Tracy Jr. hasn’t been nearly as impressive this season on a per-touch basis as last year, with an 11% missed tackle rate and only 2.09 yards after contact per attempt. Tracy Jr. should produce solid RB2 numbers this week. Since Week 4, San Francisco’s run defense has been quite average, allowing the ninth-highest yards before contact per attempt, the 13th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Tracy 62.2% zone), logging the second-lowest stuff rate, and sitting at 16th in success rate.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Since Week 4, Wan’Dale Robinson has had a 22.9% target share, 54.2 receiving yards per game (1.69 yards per route run), and a 23.7% first-read share as the WR44 in fantasy points per game. In those five games, he has four red zone targets and five deep targets. This week, he’ll face a 49ers’ secondary that, since Week 6, has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (60.6%). Since Week 4, against single high, has tied for second on the team with a 19% target per route run rate against single high with 2.06 yards per route run. Robinson should have a banner week against a secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and fourth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Over the last two weeks, Jauan Jennings has retaken his WR1 in the 49ers’ offense. While the box scores haven’t been great, the market share usage has been there. Since Week 7, he has had a 24.1% target share with a 35.3% air-yard share while averaging 38 receiving yards (1.46 yards per route run) with a 38.9% first-read share. In those two games, he had one red zone target and three deep targets. Jennings is a strong flex play this week against a secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Mac Jones (QB)

Mac Jones draws another start this week. In his six starts this season, he has two QB1 outings. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks fourth in passing yards per game, 23rd in yards per attempt, 12th in highly accurate throw rate, 17th in catchable target rate, and eighth in hero throw rate. He has played quite well this season. It makes a ton of sense that San Francisco would give Brock Purdy all the time he needs to get back to 100% with how Jones has played. Jones should return solid QB2 production this week. Since Week 4, New York has allowed the 14th-most passing yards per game and the sixth-most passing touchdowns (tied) while ranking 16th in passer rating.

Kendrick Bourne (WR)

Over the last two weeks, Kendrick Bourne has had only a 10.3% target share, 29 receiving yards per game (1.18 yards per route run), and an 11.1% first-read share. He has been squeezed with Jauan Jennings getting healthier and George Kittle returning to the lineup. Bourne is a low-end/deep league flex only this week. Since Week 4, New York has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Darius Slayton (WR)

Last week, Darius Slayton had a 61.3% route share in his first game back while drawing a 20.8% target share, a 27.3% air-yard share, and a 23.1% first-read share. He had one deep target and finished with only two receptions and 26 receiving yards. Better days are ahead for Slayton if he keeps seeing this type of usage weekly and continues to get healthier, but I don’t want to flex him this week. Since Week 4, San Francisco has allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Theo Johnson (TE)

Since Week 4, Theo Johnson has been the TE11 in fantasy points per game, drawing an 18.8% target share with 32.6 receiving yards per game (1.22 yards per route run) and a 22.6% first-read share. In those five games, he has had five red zone targets and a deep target. Johnson is best left on the bench this week. San Francisco has allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the 13th-fewest yards per reception and schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.

BAL vs. MIA | CAR vs. GB | MIN vs. DET | CHI vs. CIN | DEN vs. HOU | SF vs. NYG | IND vs. PIT | LAC vs. TEN | ATL vs. NE | JAC vs. LV | NO vs. LAR | KC vs. BUF | SEA vs. WAS | ARI vs. DAL

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• IND -3, O/U 50.5
• Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Daniel Jones
• Jonathan Taylor
• D.K. Metcalf
• Michael Pittman Jr.
• Tyler Warren

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Aaron Rodgers is the QB15 in fantasy points per game. He has been successful this season operating as a point guard, relying upon his receiving options to create after the catch. He has the fourth-lowest aDOT and the highest percentage of his passing yards arising from yards after the catch among 45 qualifying passers. Among that same sample of quarterbacks, he ranks 20th in yards per attempt, 23rd in CPOE, and 13th in fantasy points per dropback. Rodgers could flirt with QB1 production this week, but at the very least, he should return solid QB2 fantasy numbers. Since Week 4, Indy’s pass defense has taken a step back, giving up the 13th-highest success rate per dropback, the ninth-most yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, and the sixth-most passing touchdowns (tied).

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Alec Pierce (WR)

Alec Pierce has excelled as the team’s downfield threat as the WR47 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 weekly finishes (WR34, WR22). Pierce has a 17.5% target share with a 45.4% air-yard share (21.0 aDOT), 64.3 receiving yards per game (2.37 yards per route run), and a 20.9% first-read share. Pierce is a very strong flex play this week, and it all comes down to the coverage structure for Pittsburgh and their issues with defending the deep ball. Pierce leads the team with nine deep targets. Since Week 4, Pittsburgh has allowed the 12th-most deep passing yards per game and the ninth-highest passer rating to downfield targets. This week, he faces a Steelers’ secondary that has the third-highest single high rate in the NFL (63%). Against single high, Pierce has a 29.5% target share, 4.33 yards per route run, and a 33.3% first-read share. Pierce should crush this week against a secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Josh Downs (WR)

Josh Downs is the WR46 in fantasy points per game, earning a 16.8% target share with 36.6 receiving yards per game (1.84 yards per route run) and an 18.9% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team with seven red zone targets while also seeing three deep targets. This week, he faces a Steelers’ secondary that has the third-highest single high rate in the NFL (63%). Against single high, he is third on the team with a 23% target per route run rate, 1.84 yards per route run, and 0.37 fantasy points per route run. Downs is a strong flex play this week against a Steelers’ secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Jaylen Warren is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, and since Week 3, he has averaged a 64.4% snap rate with 17.8 touches and 93.8 total yards per game. He’s 25th in weighted opportunities and 19th in red zone touches among running backs. Among 60 qualifying backs, he ranks fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he’ll need all the volume he can get, facing an uphill climb against Indy’s run defense. Since Week 4, Indy has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest explosive run rate, and the seventh-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

**The Steelers have returned to a maddening tight end committee approach. In Week 8, none of their tight ends had more than a 56.4% route share or 11.1% target share. The matchup is good for this unit in Week 9, but we can’t trust that any of them will get enough playing time or volume to take advantage of it.**

BAL vs. MIA | CAR vs. GB | MIN vs. DET | CHI vs. CIN | DEN vs. HOU | SF vs. NYG | IND vs. PIT | LAC vs. TEN | ATL vs. NE | JAC vs. LV | NO vs. LAR | KC vs. BUF | SEA vs. WAS | ARI vs. DAL

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans

• LAC -9.5, O/U 43.5
• Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Herbert

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kimani Vidal (RB)

Kimani Vidal truthers UNITE! Vindication is ours. Since Week 6, Kimani Vidal has been the RB10 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19.4 touches and 100 total yards. Among 60 qualifying backs, he ranks third in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. He shouldn’t have much issue with ripping apart the Titans’ run defense this week. Since Week 4, Tennessee has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Keenan Allen is the WR15 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.7% target share with 59.9 receiving yards per game (1.96 yards per route run), and a 25% first-read share. He leads the team with 11 red zone targets and ranks second in deep targets. Allen should be busy again this week. Tennessee has the third-highest two-high rate in the NFL (59.9%). Against two high, Allen leads the team with a 22% target per route run rate and ranks second with 2.12 yards per route run. Since Week 4, Tennessee has allowed the second-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

Ladd McConkey has turned it on since Week 5 as the WR6 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 5, he has had a 26.5% target share with 73.5 receiving yards per game, 2.01 yards per route run, and a 26.7% first-read share. Since Week 5, he has led the team with eight red zone targets and five deep targets. McConkey has had his issues with two high coverage during this hot streak, though, which will be a problem this week. Tennessee has the third-highest two-high rate in the NFL (59.9%). Since Week 5, against two high, McConkey has had a 24% target per route run rate (second on the team), but he’s only turned that into 1.25 yards per route run. McConkey should still be second in line for targets this week behind Keenan Allen. Toss out Tennessee’s numbers against slot receivers this season, as Roger McCreary was dealt. Samuel Womack III (career 67.6% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating) is set to take over as the new starting nickel for Tennessee. McConkey should have no issues getting open this week against him.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Tony Pollard is the RB31 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, he has averaged 12 touches and 53.7 total yards with a 49.2% snapshare, a 32.5% route share, and a 9.1% target share. During this stretch, he’s had two of the five red zone running back carries. Garbage time has muddied the snap and usage waters weekly, but Tyjae Spears is getting more work than Pollard over the last three games. Among 60 qualifying backs, Pollard ranks 30th in missed tackle rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he gets a bit of a bump with the Chargers’ run defense struggling. Since Week 4, the Bolts have allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt.

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Since Week 6, Tyjae Spears has been the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 9.6 touches and 57.3 total yards. During this stretch, he has had a 50.8% snap share, a 42.1% route share, and a 10% target share. Across the last three games, he has three of the five running back red zone rushing attempts. Spears has had a decent 4.3% explosive run rate and 2.30 yards after contact per attempt. He’s a decent flex play with a good matchup this week. Since Week 4, the Bolts have allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt.

Chimere Dike (WR)

Last week, Chimere Dike was a full-time player with an 86% route share, a 21.1% target share, 93 receiving yards (2.51 yards per route run), and a 23.8% first-read share (second on the team). Across the last two games, he has one red zone target and two deep targets. Since Week 6, Los Angeles has utilized two high at the third highest rate (66.7%). Since Week 7, against two high, Dike has a 21% target per route run rate (second on the team) and 2.18 yards per route run. Strong numbers for the rookie. The Bolts have allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers this season. Dike is a solid flex play for Week 9.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Cam Ward (QB)

Cam Ward is the QB35 in fantasy points per game, with only three games this season with at least 11.2 fantasy points. If we want to look at it as a glass-half-full situation, he has two of those games over the last two weeks, but that’s still a low bar to clear. Among 45 qualifying passers, Ward ranks 37th or lower in yards per attempt, highly accurate throw rate, catchable target rate, and fantasy points per dropback. He faces a tough pass defense that, since Week 4, has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game and passing touchdowns, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-lowest success rate per dropback. As usual, this week’s advice is to sit Ward.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

On most teams, I’m sitting Quentin Johnston this week. There’s a small avenue that could allow him to pay off in fantasy this week, but there’s also a mountain of recent evidence stacked against him that screams to sit him. Since his return to the lineup in Week 7, he hasn’t been the same player, only seeing a 6.3% target share with 15 receiving yards per game, 0.38 yards per route run, and a 6.8% first-read share. Those numbers are astronomically different than his pre-hamstring injury market share and production numbers. Even if I believed he was fully healthy right now, the coverage matchup is horrible for him this week. Tennessee has the third-highest two-high rate in the NFL (59.9%). Against two high, Johnston has only a 14% target per route run rate and 0.92 yards per route run. The only avenue that Johnston has this week to produce against Tennessee is with his downfield usage. He leads the team with ten deep targets. Since Week 4, Tennessee has allowed the second-highest deep completion rate and deep passer rating. Johnston is a dice roll flex only this week.

Elic Ayomanor (WR)

Elic Ayomanor is the WR59 in fantasy points per game, having surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game only twice this season. He hasn’t had a red zone target since Week 3. Ayomanor has a 16.4% target share, 1.12 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. He has only four red zone targets and seven deep targets this season. Since Week 6, Los Angeles has utilized two high at the third highest rate (66.7%). Against two high, Ayomanor has only an 18% target per route run rate and 0.75 yards per route run. Sit Ayomanor this week. Since Week 4, Los Angeles has held perimeter wide receivers to the 12th-fewest PPR points per target.

Oronde Gadsden II (TE)

Since taking over as a full-time starter in Week 6, Oronde Gadsden II has been the TE3 in fantasy points per game. Across the last three weeks, he has had a 17.8% target share with 103 receiving yards per game (2.94 yards per route run), and a 23.8% first-read share. Since Week 6, he has had six red zone targets and three deep targets. Tennessee has the third-highest two-high rate in the NFL (59.9%). Since Week 6, against two high, Gadsden ll has been third on the team with a 23% target per route run rate and leading the way with 2.84 yards per route run. Keep your expectations in check for the talented rookie this week against a defense that has held tight ends to the eighth-fewest yards per reception, the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game, and the seventh-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.

BAL vs. MIA | CAR vs. GB | MIN vs. DET | CHI vs. CIN | DEN vs. HOU | SF vs. NYG | IND vs. PIT | LAC vs. TEN | ATL vs. NE | JAC vs. LV | NO vs. LAR | KC vs. BUF | SEA vs. WAS | ARI vs. DAL