It’s hard to get a handle on the Wilsons this week.
Emanuel Wilson was going to be a star of this week’s most intriguing fantasy football article, but he was purged when Josh Jacobs practiced on Thursday despite sustaining a knee contusion last Sunday.
Of course, having one’s article plans foiled isn’t as bad as blowing a lot of FAAB money on Wilson on the waiver wire, only for him to become unusable days later (assuming Jacobs actually plays).
And then there’s the curious case of Michael Wilson, who’s gone from afterthought to must-start fantasy asset in the blink of an eye. Wilson was WR81 in my predraft rankings. Where does he fit into this week’s rankings? He’s WR18.
Read on for more about Michael Wilson and the rest of the 10 most intriguing players of Week 12.
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The 10 Most Intriguing Players of Week 12
1. TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE)
TreVeyon Henderson has been hosting a kegger in the basement rec room, but Dad just pulled into the driveway.
Henderson investors waited eight weeks for him to become a usable fantasy asset. The rookie from Ohio State played no more than half of the Patriots’ offensive snaps in any of their first eight games.
Veteran running back Rhamondre Stevenson was Henderson’s biggest impediment. Stevenson started New England’s first eight games and played more than half of the snaps in all but one of them.
Stevenson has missed the last three games with a toe injury, and Henderson has pounced on the opportunity. During Stevenson’s absence, Henderson has piled up 264 rushing yards, 66 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He’s RB3 in half-PPR fantasy scoring over the last three weeks and RB1 over the last two weeks.
Stevenson is expected back this week, and it will be fascinating to see how Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels divides the labor between Stevenson and Henderson.
It seems unlikely Henderson would go back to 30% weekly snap shares after his three-week rampage. But it seems equally unlikely that Stevenson would be relegated to caddie duty for his rookie teammate.
A split backfield probably wouldn’t be ruinous to the fantasy value of Henderson or Stevenson this week, since Patriots running backs have a red-carpet matchup against the Bengals. Cincinnati has been rocked by opposing backs all season, giving up a league-high 31.2 fantasy points per game to the position. The Bengals have given up the most rushing yards (1,371) and the second-most receiving yards (485) to running backs.
Maybe father and son can co-host the kegger.
2. Michael Wilson (WR – ARI)
Before last week, Michael Wilson had averaged 1.09 yards per route run since entering the league as a third-round draft pick out of Stanford in 2023.
That’s a pretty terrible number. How terrible? Well, journeyman Josh Reynolds, who’s in his ninth NFL season and playing for his sixth different team, has averaged 1.18 yards per route for his career. Not to pick on Reynolds, but he’s never had more than 618 receiving yards in a single season. To average fewer yards per route run than Reynolds suggests, there’s probably not a gold jacket in your future.
Last week, the Cardinals’ No. 1 receiver, former top-five draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr., was out following an appendectomy. Stepping into a more prominent role, Wilson erupted for 15 catches and 185 yards on 18 targets against the 49ers.
Perhaps yards per route run was never a good measure of Wilson’s value.
To fare well in yards per route run, a receiver needs to be targeted at a reasonably high rate. Before last week, Wilson had averaged 4.4 targets over 38 career games despite playing at least 78% of Arizona’s offensive snaps every season. His rate of targets per route run has never been higher than 16% for a season, according to Fantasy Points Data.
Maybe the 1.09 yards per route run was more of a Kyler Murray stat than a Michael Wilson stat.
Murray is often a one-read quarterback who goes into scramble mode if his first read isn’t there. Wilson’s first-read target share has been well under 20% in all three of his seasons in Arizona.
Last week, it was backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett who helped propel Wilson to the first 100-yard game of his career.
With Murray on injured reserve (IR), Brissett will make another start this week. Can Wilson have another big fantasy day?
Brissett and Wilson face a pass-funnel Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars are better against the run than they are against the pass, so opponents are throwing against them 63.6% of the time. Only the Colts have faced a higher passing rate by opponents.
Wilson!
3. Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)
Ja’Marr Chase, widely regarded as the best receiver in the league, is suspended for Week 12 after spitting at the Steelers’ Jalen Ramsey during last week’s Bengals-Steelers game. Tee Higgins is one of the best No. 2 receivers in the league. With Chase out, Higgins will be the de facto No. 1 against the Patriots on Sunday.
Joe Flacco has averaged 42.6 pass attempts, 290.6 passing yards and 2.4 touchdown passes in his five starts for the Bengals. Being Flacco’s No. 1 receiver could be lucrative from a fantasy perspective.
(Note: Joe Burrow has returned to practice for the Bengals this week after being out with a toe injury since mid-September. It seems unlikely Burrow would play this week, but if he did… well, that wouldn’t be too bad for Higgins either.)
There’s one potential snag in the whole Higgins-to-the-moon scenario. Now that he’s the Bengals’ top receiver for the week, Higgins could draw shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez, one of the better cornerbacks in the league. A first-round draft pick in 2023, Gonzalez has allowed a 44% catch rate on throws into his coverage this season, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), and has yielded 22 catches for 244 yards and zero touchdowns.
If Gonzalez can keep Higgins under wraps, don’t be surprised if Bengals’ No. 3 receiver Andrei Iosivas has a busy day.
4. Daniel Jones (QB – IND)
Has the clock struck midnight on Daniel Jones? Has the carriage turned into a pumpkin? Has the glass slipper shattered?
In his last two games, Jones has thrown four interceptions, taken 12 sacks and coughed up six fumbles.
The recent visit from the Ghost of Daniel Joneses Past is probably more alarming to Colts fans than to his fantasy stakeholders. Over those two games (a loss to the Steelers and an overtime win against the Falcons), Jones threw for nearly 600 yards with two touchdown passes, 57 rushing yards and a touchdown run.
A Week 11 bye might have helped Jones clear his head. Or, things are about to keep snowballing downhill.
Week 12 is a big spot for Jones. The Colts visit Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. If they can pull off a mild upset, the Colts could not only bolster their own playoff outlook but put the Chiefs’ playoff aspirations in jeopardy.
5. Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
Revenge game alert. Ex-Packer Aaron Jones returns to Green Bay as a member of the archrival Vikings.
Jones has taken charge of the Minnesota backfield in recent weeks. He split work with Jordan Mason in the first two weeks of the season, then missed four games with a hamstring injury. Jones continued to split work with Mason upon his return in Week 8. But over the last two weeks, Jones has played more than two-thirds of the Vikings’ offensive snaps and has out-touched Mason 31-11.
The Vikings are incentivized to keep their running backs heavily involved to hide second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who’s mostly been a train wreck in his first five NFL starts. McCarthy is completing 52.9% of his passes and averaging six yards per pass attempt. He’s thrown six touchdown passes and eight interceptions. McCarthy has been sacked 14 times and has four fumbles.
Egad.
The Green Bay run defense was tough early in the season, but has softened up lately. The Giants’ Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary combined for 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Packers last week, and the Panthers’ Rico Dowdle gashed them for 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Week 9.
The big question: Will Jones do the Lambeau Leap if he scores a touchdown in his old stomping grounds?
Prediction: You betcha.
6. Shedeur Sanders (QB – CLE)
You’ve been subjected to enough tedious TV arguments about Shedeur Sanders, so let’s keep this brief.
With Dillon Gabriel sustaining a concussion last week, Sanders will make his first NFL start on Sunday against the Raiders in Las Vegas. Sanders turned in a rough performance last week after Gabriel left, completing 4-of-16 passes for 47 yards with zero touchdowns, one interception and two sacks.
In fairness to Sanders, it has to be tough to come in cold and get your first taste of NFL regular-season action. But the tough circumstances won’t quiet the naysayers.
Sanders has been a lightning rod because his dad is Deion Sanders, who’s been as brash as the University of Colorado’s head football coach as he was during his playing days. The people who hate Deion probably hate Shedeur.
It can’t be easy to be Deion Sanders’ kid. Hopefully, fans show the younger Sanders some grace no matter the outcome of his first NFL start, but that’s probably a pipe dream.
From a fantasy perspective, there probably aren’t many people who’ll have Sanders in their fantasy lineups this week — probably just some desperate folks in Superflex leagues. But Week 12 should yield some clues about Sanders’ potential dynasty value, and we might learn more about whether he will be an asset or a detriment to his pass-catchers.
7. A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)
Buckle up for another ride on the A.J. Brown roller coaster.
Let’s review Brown’s numbers from his last three games:
- He torched the Vikings for 121 yards and two touchdowns.
- He was a non-factor against the Packers, with two catches for 13 yards.
- He was targeted 11 times and had seven catches against the Lions, but finished with only 49 yards.
Brown’s fantasy stakeholders have been tearing out their hair this season. There’s little question about Brown’s talent. In six previous NFL seasons, Brown has topped 1,000 yards five times and has given us two 1,400-yard seasons.
But Brown hasn’t exactly been a hand-in-glove fit for the system of new Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo. Brown is on pace to finish with 68 catches for 812 yards.
A Week 12 matchup with the Cowboys could be a tonic for Brown. The Cowboys have yielded a league-high 17 touchdown catches and have allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
On the other hand, Brown already faced the Cowboys in the NFL’s Thursday Night Football season opener and completely bricked, finishing with a single eight-yard catch.
8. DK Metcalf (WR – PIT)
Over the first six weeks of the season, DK Metcalf was WR10 in half-PPR fantasy points per game. He was averaging 71.2 yards and had four touchdowns in five games.
Since Week 7, Metcalf is WR54 in fantasy points per game. He’s averaged 39 receiving yards per game over that stretch, with a single-game high of 55 yards. Metcalf has scored only one touchdown in his last five contests.
Metcalf would seem to have a get-right Week 12 matchup against the Bears, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. But the Bears have been playing without their two best cornerbacks, Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, for most of the season. Johnson, who’s been sidelined by a groin injury since Week 2, has been practicing in full this week and seems likely to play on Sunday. One of the better corners in the league, Johnson would probably cover Metcalf on a good number of his routes.
And then there’s the Steelers’ murky quarterback situation. Aaron Rodgers has a fracture in his non-throwing wrist but has been practicing on a limited basis this week. Some Metcalf investors might be curious about whether Mason Rudolph might be able to reverse the receiver’s sagging fortunes.
9. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
We might have a perfect storm brewing for Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs is coming off a strange game against the Eagles in which he was held to 39 rushing yards on 12 carries but had 107 receiving yards on five catches.
This week, Gibbs gets a plum matchup against the Giants, whose woeful run defense ranks dead last in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). The Giants are allowing 5.7 yards per carry to running backs.
The Lions will be at home on Sunday, and Gibbs has rushed for more than 90 yards in three of Detroit’s four home games.
It’s a pretty good bet that Gibbs will produce more than 39 rushing yards this week.
10. Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)
The Panthers’ first-round draft pick is coming off his best game of the season. Tetairoa McMillan had eight catches against the Falcons for 130 yards and two touchdowns.
McMillan’s talent is obvious, but quarterback Bryce Young has mostly been a hindrance to his rookie receiver this season. Young was averaging a paltry 5.6 yards per pass attempt before exploding for a career-high 448 yards and three touchdowns last week.
Can Young and McMillan provide a satisfying encore in Week 12?
It’s not out of the question.
The Panthers have a Monday-night matchup against the 49ers, who gave up 452 passing yards to Arizona’s Jacoby Brissett last week. San Francisco’s pass rush is almost nonexistent. The 49ers rank last in the NFL in sacks (12) and last in pressure rate (13.1%). The 49ers’ cornerbacks are basically sitting ducks.
Week 12 could be fruitful for McMillan.
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