Here are my fantasy football rankings, tiers and outlook for notable players Week 12.
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Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Week 12
Quarterbacks Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy was sharp in his return from a toe injury last week, completing 73% of his passes against the Cardinals for 200 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The 49ers had a big lead against the Cardinals throughout, which held down Purdy’s yardage total. But the 49ers’ defense is so injury-riddled and their pass rush so weak that we might start to see the Dak Prescott Effect with Purdy, where his defense thrusts him into shootouts that inflate his numbers. I don’t know if the Panthers can force Purdy and the 49ers into a shootout Monday night, but Panthers QB Bryce Young had a big game against the Falcons last week, and he should have ample time to throw against a San Francisco defense that ranks last in the league in sacks and pressure rate. There’s a chance that Panthers-49ers could be a high-scoring affair in which Purdy shines.
Jacoby Brissett set an NFL record with 47 completions last week against the 49ers. The Cardinals fell into a deep early hole in that game, so Brissett was throwing all game. He benefitted from facing an anemic San Francisco pass rush and having ample time to throw. The matchup isn’t quite as favorable for Brissett this week, but it’s still pretty friendly. The Cardinals host the Jaguars, whose pass defense is giving up 20.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, fifth-most in the league. The Jacksonville defense is a pass funnel. Opponents are throwing on the Jaguars 63.6% of the time. Only the Colts have faced a higher passing rate by opponents. I’m ranking Brissett as a low-end QB1.
Maybe Daniel Jones is turning from a carriage back into a pumpkin. In his last two games, Jones has thrown four interceptions, taken 12 sacks, and fumbled six times. And yet, Jones has averaged just under 300 passing yards in those two games, with two TD passes, 57 rushing yards and a TD run. As ineffective as he’s been for the Colts in his last two starts, Jones has still been getting it done from a fantasy perspective. Even in a tricky matchup against the Chiefs this week, I’m ranking him as a low-end QB1.
Baker Mayfield has been in a mini-slump. Over his last four games, Mayfield is averaging just 5.7 yards per pass attempt. He’s averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game over his last four starts and ranks QB24 in fantasy points per game over that stretch, just behind J.J. McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers. This week, Mayfield has a tough matchup against the Rams, who have the fifth-lowest opponent passer rating and have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. I have Mayfield ranked just outside QB1 range this week.
Running Backs Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Running Backs
Quinshon Judkins is averaging 3.2 yards per carry over his last five games and has produced just eight receiving yards over that stretch. Judkins has gone three straight games without a touchdown. His matchup against the Raiders seems enticing, but the Raiders’ run defense is respectable, ranking 16th in DVOA. The Raiders have allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points to RBs. I’m ranking Judkins as a midrange RB2, and I’m worried that’s overly optimistic.
If Josh Jacobs plays this week, FAAB bids for Emanuel Wilson will have gone to waste. Wilson, a former undrafted free agent from Fort Valley State, was the waiver darling of Week 12 with Jacobs’ status in doubt due to a knee contusion. Wilson is a competent backup big enough to handle a substantial workload, but I’m not sure he’ll get a big workload even if Jacobs is out. The Packers have another competent backup RB, Chris Brooks. Wilson has played 178 offensive snaps this season, Brooks 72. The reason for the snap differential might not be about the Packers’ coaches deeming Wilson to be better; it might be because Brooks is heavily involved in special teams, and Wilson is not. Brooks has played the third-most special teams snaps of anyone on the Packers. Brooks is a good player. With about six minutes left in the Packers’ game against the Giants last week and the Packers trailing 20-19, Brooks stonewalled a Giants blitzer, giving Jordan Love time to find Savion Williams for a long completion that moved the Packers into the red zone. It wouldn’t surprise me if Brooks made a significant contribution this week, which is why I’m below consensus on Wilson.
Never mind that David Montgomery played 39% of the offensive snaps and had seven touches and 37 scrimmage yards in the Lions’ 16-9 loss to the Eagles last week. Monty gets a much better matchup this week against the Giants. The Lions will be at home at Ford Field — the Coors Field of the NFL — as double-digit favorites against the Giants who have the worst run defense in the league based on DVOA. Montgomery is averaging 12.5 touches a game. There’s no need to worry about his usage. Consider Montgomery a low-end RB2.
Kenneth Walker III & Zach Charbonnet (SEA)
After the Seahawks lost to the Rams last week, Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald said that Kenneth Walker is “earning more opportunities to get the ball.” But this week, in a game where the Seahawks are favored by almost two touchdowns against a Titans defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, there’s probably going to be enough work for both Walker and Charbonnet to have decent fantasy performances. A lot of people seem to think Charbonnet is terrible because he’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry. But Charbonnet has been getting a lot of short-yardage carries against stacked boxes. He’s also been hit behind the line of scrimmage on 33% of his carries — the highest percentage of any RB in the league. Don’t let Macdonald’s verbal endorsement of Walker scare you out of playing Charbonnet.
A few weeks ago, Alvin Kamara seemed droppable. He hadn’t had more than 31 rushing yards in a game since Week 4 and wasn’t doing enough as a pass catcher to compensate. But in the Saints’ final game before their Week 11 bye, Kamara had 83 rushing yards and 32 receiving yards against the Panthers. It’s possible QB Tyler Shough is much better for Kamara than Spencer Rattler was, because Shough seems much more willing to throw downfield. Maybe that will loosen up defenses and give Kamara more room to operate. Regard Kamara as a flex-worthy RB3 this week against the slumping Falcons.
It’s hard to get a read on what the workload split is going to be between Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary. We’ve seen it oscillate from Tracy being the lead guy to more of a 50/50 split. Last week, in Mike Kafka’s first game as the Giants’ interim head coach, Tracy played 37 snaps, and Singletary played 35 snaps. Tracy had 88 rushing yards and 51 receiving yards, but Singletary had a 5-yard touchdown run and a 2-yard touchdown run. It seems as if this might be a 50/50 workload split, with Tracy getting more work on passing downs, but with Singletary being the goal-line guy. In a tough matchup against the Lions, Tracy should be considered a midrange RB3 at best.
With Michael Penix Jr. out for the season, the Falcons are forced to start Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Atlanta will also be without start WR Drake London (knee). The more the Falcons can take the ball out of Kirk Cousins‘ hands, the better off they’re going to be. I would expect Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to both get a lot of work against the Saints this week. Consider Allgeier a midrange RB3.
Wide Receivers Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Wide Receivers
Chris Olave is a must-start this week even though he’s seeing less target volume with Tyler Shough at quarterback for the Saints. In Spencer Rattler‘s eight starts for New Orleans this season, Olave averaged 10.4 targets a game but only 6.1 yards per target. In Shough’s two starts, Olave has only drawn 12 targets but has averaged 13.4 yards per target. That’s a small sample size, but Olave’s average depth of target with the two quarterbacks is telling. Olave had an average depth of target of 9.9 yards in Rattler starts. His average depth of target in Shough’s two starts is 15.9 yards. Olave is getting to stretch his legs, and with Rashid Shaheed now in Seattle following a deal at the trade deadline, Olave should see plenty of targets going forward. This week he faces an Atlanta defense that gave up huge games to Panthers QB Bryce Young and WR Tetairoa McMillan last week.
With Marvin Harrison Jr. out last week after having an appendectomy, Michael Wilson had 15 catches for 185 yards on 18 targets — career highs across the board. In fact, Wilson had never reached 100 receiving yards in any of his 38 pervious NFL games. Harrison will be out again when the Cardinals host the Jaguars on Sunday, so Wilson’s target outlook remains sunny. Wilson looked like a legitimate playmaker last week, and he’s in a good spot this week against a pass-funnel Jags defense.
Over the first six weeks of the season, D.K. Metcalf was WR10 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game and was averaging 71.2 receiving yards, with four touchdowns in five games. Since Week 7, Metcalf has averaged 39 receiving yards per game. His high-water mark over that five-game stretch was 55 yards, and he’s scored only one touchdown in his last five contests. Metcalf is WR54 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game since Week 7. His matchup against the Bears this week looks good on paper. The Bears have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. But the Bears have been playing without their two best cornerbacks, Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, for most of the season. Both have returned to practice. Johnson is a terrific cover man, and if he’s back this week, he’ll probably cover Metcalf on a good number of his routes. I’m tentatively ranking Metcalf as a low-end WR2 but will move him down if Jaylon Johnson suits up for the Bears.
Jordan Addison is a terrific player, and if he were in a different situation, we might be talking about hm as a WR1 for fantasy. Alas, Addison is in a situation where he has to compete with Justin Jefferson for targets, and those targets are coming from J.J. McCarthy. Addison is averaging 7.3 targets in the three games he’s played with McCarthy, but he’s only been able to catch seven of them — a 31.8% catch rate. Addison is averaging 4.7 yards per target on throws from McCarthy. Addison is a midrange WR3 at best this week against the Packers.
Tre Tucker is being ranked as a midrange WR3 in the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings. I see Tucker as more of a midrange WR4. I just can’t muster a lot of enthusiasm for a receiver who has averaged 1.14 yards per route run for his career. Tucker has put up fewer than 6.0 half-point PPR fantasy points in five of his 10 games this season, but he’s had a 36.9-point game and a couple of 12-point games. It’s a dicey profile, and I’m inclined to stay away from marginal fantasy options in a Browns-Raiders game that has a Vegas total of 36 points.
Even with Brian Thomas Jr. out of action with an ankle injury, Parker Washington has had five catches for 53 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. Thomas is expected back this week, and the role of the recently acquired Jakobi Meyers is growing. It’s not clear whether it will be Meyers or Washington playing opposite Thomas when the Jaguars use two-receiver sets. I’m fading Washington this week, ranking him just outside the top 40 at wide receiver.
Tight Ends Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Tight Ends
Over the first four weeks of the season, Hunter Henry was TE1 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Since Week 5, Henry is WR33 in fantasy points per game. Henry has a get-right matchup against the Bengals this week. Cincinnati has allowed the most receiving yards (808) TD catches (12) and half-point PPR fantasy points per game (18.8) to tight ends. The slumping Henry is a midrange TE1 for Week 12.
With Drake London out with a knee injury, Kyle Pitts has a greatly enhanced target outlook this week against the Saints. The Falcons top wide receivers this week are Darnell Mooney, KhaDarel Hodge, Casey Washington and David Sills. Those four players have combined for 29 catches, 383 yards and zero touchdowns this year. Pitts could very well see 10-plus targets this week. Consider him a midrange TE1 with a high-end TE1 ceiling.
Jake Ferguson is a third wheel in the Dallas offense when CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens both play, and Ferguson has a tough Week 12 matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. But it’s hard to completely fade a TE who has 60 receptions and seven touchdowns in 10 games. I’m ranking Ferguson as a lower-end TE1.
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