Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Philly’s pass rush destroyed Jared Goff last week as he was under duress on 38.5% of his dropbacks. If the Lions can keep Goff in clean pockets this week, he should have a monstrous bounce-back game. Since Week 7, the Giants are 13th in pressure rate, so there is some risk here. Goff is the QB15 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 outings this season. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, Goff ranks sixth in yards per attempt, ninth in passing yards per game, second in passing touchdowns (tied), and 16th in highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 7, the Giants have allowed the 12th-highest success rate per dropback, the second-most passing touchdowns, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the 12th-highest CPOE.
Last week, Brock Purdy made his triumphant return to the huddle as the QB5 for the week. Among 43 qualifying passers, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, third in passing yards per game, eighth in CPOE, and 15th in catchable target rate. Purdy is a strong QB1 again this week with a middle-of-the-road matchup against Carolina. Since Week 7, Carolina has allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt while ranking 20th in CPOE and success rate per dropback.
Daniel Jones is the QB7 in fantasy points per game, averaging 14.3 rushing yards per game and five rushing touchdowns. Jones has the sixth-most red zone carries per game among quarterbacks. He has excelled as a passer this season. Among 43 qualifying passers, he ranks fifth in yards per attempt, first in passing yards per game, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, and sixth in catchable target rate. I was high on Bo Nix last week, and he played well despite it not carrying over to a strong fantasy day. Last week, Nix completed 64.9% of his passes with 8.0 yards per attempt and 295 passing yards. That was the second-highest passing yardage performance of the season for Nix and only the second time he had 8.0 or more yards per attempt in a game. Jones should have a strong game in Week 12. Since Week 7, Kansas City has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest CPOE, and ranked 16th in success rate per dropback. Jones should have plenty of time in the pocket this week. Since Week 7, the Chiefs have the eighth-lowest pressure rate.
Jacoby Brissett has finished as a QB1 in EVERY start this season (QB7, QB12, QB10, QB10, QB4). Since Week 6, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks first in passing yards per game, 15th in yards per attempt, seventh in passing touchdowns, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, and 16th in catchable target rate. I know Justin Herbert fell on his face last week, but Jacksonville still doesn’t have a pass defense that strikes fear in my heart. Since Week 6, they have allowed the 12th-most passing yards per game, the second-most passing touchdowns (tied), the eighth-highest success rate per dropback, and ranked 16th in CPOE.
Jordan Love‘s up-and-down play has impacted his per-dropback metrics in recent weeks. He’s been quite volatile over the last four games with two top-ten weekly finishes (QB1, QB8) and two weeks as the QB24. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, Love is eighth in yards per attempt, 13th in passing yards per game, and 17th in highly accurate throw rate and catchable target rate. This week, he faces a Vikings’ pass defense that has improved to a middle-of-the-road unit since the return of Andrew Van Ginkel, ranking 16th in passing yards per game, allowing the 13th-fewest yards per attempt, and sitting at 15th in passer rating. Love could have a nice game this week, as he has been strong against the blitz, and we know Brian Flores loves to blitz heavily weekly. Love ranks ninth in yards per attempt, 14th in big-time throw rate, and fourth in adjusted completion rate against the blitz. Minnesota still blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (43.9%).
The “old Sam Darnold” has started to creep back into the mix over the last few weeks. Since Week 7, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold has still ranked third in yards per attempt, fifth in CPOE, and second in highly accurate throw rate, but in that span, he has also led in interceptions, ranked second in turnover-worthy throw rate, and fallen to 21st in catchable target rate. Tennessee could be a nice dose of “get right” serum this week. Since Week 7, they have allowed the tenth-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback. This is a good spot for Seattle to inject some confidence in their quarterback.
Last week, Bryce Yong went legend mode as the QB2 in fantasy behind only Josh Allen. Take a second and let that sink in. Yeah, I don’t think anyone saw that coming, but it happened. Last week, Carolina was 14th in pass rate over expectation, which was only the second game this season where they finished with a positive value in that department (first time since Week 2). Last week was only the second time this season that Young has surpassed 7.0 yards per attempt and 200 passing yards in a game. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, Young ranks 31st in yards per attempt, 28th in passing yards per game, 38th in highly accurate throw rate, and 29th in catchable target rate. I worry that this could be a one-off outlier performance for Young, but he has another nice matchup this week against a struggling 49ers’ pass defense. We’ll see if he can build off last week’s monster game. Since Week 7, San Francisco has allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest CPOE.
Fantasy Football Deep Plays to Consider
Caleb Williams continues his best 2024 Kyler Murray approach this season with five games inside the top ten fantasy quarterbacks in weekly scoring and five games as the QB20 or lower. Last week, he was the QB22 in fantasy with only 10.3 fantasy points against the Vikings. The Steelers offer a decent matchup for Williams to rebound this week. Since Week 7, they have allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and ranked 18th in success rate per dropback. Also, during this stretch, they have had the fourth-lowest pressure rate and only logged two sacks.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Dak Prescott has been having a wonderful season as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. Among 43 qualifying passers, Prescott ranks fourth in passing yards per game, second in passing touchdowns, ninth in passer rating, fifth in highly accurate throw rate, and first in catchable target rate. The last time these two teams met, Prescott played extremely well (Week 1), but he had only 188 passing yards, 5.5 yards per attempt, zero passing touchdowns, and a QB29 finish to show for it. I don’t project Prescott to have that poor of a fantasy day this week, but it won’t be easy. Since Week 7, Philly has fielded an elite pass defense, allowing the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and the tenth-lowest CPOE. During that span, they also have the fifth-best pressure rate (43%).
Well, it finally happened. Joe Flacco had a “Joe Flacco” type of game last week as the QB21 in fantasy points per game. Still, after that performance, since Week 6, Flacco has been the QB3 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, among 36 qualifying passers, Flacco still ranks second in passing yards per game, third in passing touchdowns, sixth in highly accurate throw rate, and 14th in catchable target rate. Flacco faces a tough test this week against a resurgent Pats pass defense. Since Week 7, New England has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, the 11th-fewest passing yards per game, the ninth-lowest CPOE, and the seventh-lowest success rate per dropback. Flacco should still see enough volume to flirt with QB1 production if he can overcome the matchup.
Sit’em
In J.J. McCarthy‘s five starts, he has only one QB1 finish. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 37th in yards per attempt, 27th in CPOE, first in hero throw rate, and 24th in fantasy points per dropback. McCarthy looks like he’s headed for another down game against the Packers’ pass defense. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passing yards per game, the 13th-lowest CPOE, and the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback.
Kirk Cousins will be the Falcons’ starter, possibly for the rest of the season. In his one start this season, he was the QB23 in fantasy, and while the box scores haven’t been great, Cousins hasn’t been bad on a per-dropback standpoint. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 14th in highly accurate throw rate, fifth in catchable target rate, and has the ninth-lowest off-target rate. With zero rushing upside, he’s still only a middling QB2 this week. Since Week 7, New Orleans has allowed the tenth-highest CPOE and success rate per dropback while ranking 16th in passer rating.
Geno Smith is the QB31 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 performances this season. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 22nd in passing yards per game, tenth in highly accurate throw rate, and 22nd in catchable target rate. He’s likely to return low-end QB2 value this week. Since Week 7, Cleveland has been tough on quarterbacks, giving up the fewest passing yards per game, the second-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest success rate per dropback. During that span, the Browns have also had the second-best pressure rate. Smith will struggle again this week.
In his only full start this season, Tyrod Taylor was the QB9 in weekly scoring while logging 48 rushing yards. Among 43 qualifying passers, he has been impressive in a number of metrics. While ranking 41st in yards per attempt isn’t great, he is also first in highly accurate throw rate, third in catchable target rate, and first in CPOE. Taylor will have his hands full this week with what could be an improving Baltimore pass defense. Yes, I have some skepticism surrounding their stats since Week 7. In Weeks 7-11, they faced Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, Tua Tagovailoa, and a combination of Dillon Gabriel and Shadeur Sanders. Their pass defense could be for real, but they likely won’t be heavily tested this week, considering the state of the Jets’ passing attack. Since Week 7, Baltimore has allowed the third-lowest success rate per dropback, the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, and the second-lowest CPOE. Taylor will have to generate some fantasy points with his legs to put up solid QB2 numbers this week.
Nope. Nope. Nope. You can’t pay me to play Cam Ward this week. Not against the Seattle pass defense. Nope. Since Week 7, Seattle has allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, the lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE. No way. Good luck, Mr. Ward.
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