Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Jameson Williams has been a top 20 fantasy receiver in four of his last five games (WR12, WR19, WR2, WR8). Since Week 9, he has had a 17.4% target share, a 30.9% air-yard share (11.0 aDOT), 91 receiving yards per game, 2.73 yards per route run, and an 18.2% first-read share. In those three games, he has had three red zone targets and two deep targets as the team has been utilizing him as more than just a field stretcher. Williams is in a good spot to continue the second-half scorching production this week. Since Week 7, New York has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Ricky Pearsall had a dud game in his first action since his knee injury. If you read last week’s Primer, you weren’t surprised by this and should have sat him. Last week, Pearsall had a 77.8% route share, only a 7.7% target share, one reception, zero first reads, and zero receiving yards. This week is a wonderful opportunity and a matchup setup for Pearsall to bounce back. Since Week 8, Carolina has utilized single high at the 11th-highest rate (56%). This matters immensely because Pearsall’s coverage splits have been massive. Against single high, he leads the team with a 23.6% target share, 3.87 yards per route run, and a 31.9% first-read share. Since Week 7, Carolina has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers, so the matchup won’t be easy for Pearsall this week, but I think he can overcome it.
Last week, Michael Wilson was THE WR1 in weekly scoring. I’ll own the L there and say I didn’t see this monster game coming. Nope. Not at all. Not for a player that hadn’t had more than 61 receiving yards or a weekly finish higher than WR40 all year. Wilson had a 31.6% target share, a 60.9% air-yard share, 185 receiving yards, 3.94 yards per route run, four deep targets, and a 40% first-read share. I don’t think Wilson has an encore performance this week, but he can still have a strong game with Marvin Harrison Jr. out again. Since Week 7, Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Romeo Doubs is the WR35 in fantasy points per game, while leading the Packers with a 20.5% target share with 49.9 receiving yards per game, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 25% first-read share. Doubs is second on the team in red zone targets (ten) and leads the way with ten deep targets (tied). He should lead the way for the Packers’ pass catchers this week. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (68.5%). Against two high, Doubs is tied for first on the team with a 24% target per route run rate with 2.03 yards per route run (second on the team). Doubs should also be leaned on by Jordan Love when he’s blitzed. Since Week 10, without Tucker Kraft, Doubs has had a 30% target share when Love has been blitzed. Since Week 7, Minnesota has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Christian Watson is coming off a wonderful game as the WR6 in weekly scoring while seeing a 19.2% target share and a 28.6% air-yard share with 46 receiving yards (2.00 yards per route run) and a team-leading 33.3% first-read share. Since Week 8, Watson has had a 12.5% target share with 2.23 yards per route run and a 17.5% first-read share. In those four games, Watson has had two red zone targets and EIGHT deep targets. Watson’s downfield role could help him immensely this week against a secondary that has allowed the highest deep ball completion rate and the 12th-most deep passing yards per game. Also, Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (68.5%). Against two high, since Week 8, Watson has ranked fifth in target per route run rate (13%) on the team but second in yards per route run (1.73). Watson could have another monster game if he hits on the downfield looks. Since Week 7, Minnesota has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 7, Jennings has been the WR38 in fantasy points per game with a 22.4% target share, 48.4 receiving yards per game, 1.91 yards per route run, and a 33% first-read share. During those five games, Jennings had ranked second in red zone targets (five) and led the team with five deep targets. Since Week 8, Carolina has utilized single high at the 11th-highest rate (56%). Since Week 7, against single high, Jennings has had a 21.9% target share, 1.76 yards per route run, and a 31.1% first-read share. Overall, against single high, Jennings has had a 21.7% target share, 1.66 yards per route run, and a 30.6% first-read share. Jennings could have a solid week, but I expect Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle to lead the way for the San Francisco passing attack. Since Week 7, Carolina has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
Michael Pittman Jr. is the WR11 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 21% target share with 58 receiving yards per game, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 24.5% first-read share. He’s third on the team with seven red zone targets and second in deep targets (six). There’s more volatility with how the Colts will attack the Chiefs this week after what we saw from them last week than I anticipated. In Weeks 5-10, Kansas City had the ninth-highest single high rate (56%). Last week, they flipped the script and returned to their classic bread and butter as a two-high heavy defense (58.5%). The variations in their coverage structure mean massively different things for their receiving options. If they roll out single-high, I would expect Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren to lead the passing attack. If they continue with more two high this week, Indy will look to feature Josh Downs and Michael Pittman more. Against single high, Pittman is fourth in target per route run rate (20%) on the team with 1.45 yards per route run (fourth). Against two high, Pittman is second on the team with a 24% target per route run rate and leads the squad with 2.32 yards per route run. We’ll see how it all shakes out, but Pittman’s range of outcomes this week is wide. Since Week 7, Kansas City has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Alec Pierce. The first of his name and the destroyer of single high. Pierce is the WR34 in fantasy points per game with top-24 performances in weekly scoring in three of his last four games (WR22, WR15, WR14). He has been crushing single high with elite per-route metrics. There’s more volatility with how the Colts will attack the Chiefs this week after what we saw from them last week than I anticipated. In Weeks 5-10, Kansas City had the ninth-highest single high rate (56%). Last week, they flipped the script and returned to their classic bread and butter as a two-high heavy defense (58.5%). The variations in their coverage structure mean massively different things for their receiving options. If they roll out single-high, I would expect Pierce and Tyler Warren to lead the passing attack. If they continue with more two high this week, Indy will look to feature Josh Downs and Michael Pittman more. Against single high, Pierce leads the team with a whopping 29% target per route run rate and 3.44 yards per route run. Against two high, he’s fourth on the team with a 13% target per route run rate and 1.38 yards per route run. That’s as wide a divide as you can get for a player’s outlook. Pierce is a boom or bust option this week. The Chiefs’ outside corners have been giving, which helps his cause this week. Since Week 7, Kansas City has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Darnell Mooney should operate as the Falcons’ WR1 until Drake London returns (PCL sprain). Mooney has been a ghost for most of the season, but across the last two games, he has had a 25.9% target share, a 37% air-yard share, and a 28.9% first-read share, per Fantasy Points Data. Now, he hasn’t done much with the volume, averaging only 25.5 receiving yards with 0.91 yards per route run, but with this type of volume, Mooney could surprise this week. Since Week 7, New Orleans has ranked 18th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Wan’Dale Robinson is the WR34 in fantasy points per game with a 24.1% target share, 58 receiving yards per game, 1.73 yards per route run, and a 28.9% first-read share. He has been the Giants’ high-volume slot option all season. He has seven red zone targets and a surprising 13 deep targets. Robinson is a PPR volume-driven flex. Since Week 7, Detroit has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Last week, Jakobi Meyers had a 75% route share, a 27.3% target share, a 29.8% air-yard share, and a 26.7% first-read share. He finished with five receptions, 64 receiving yards, and a red zone target. Since Week 7, Arizona has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Meyers is a solid flex play, but we still need to see if Brian Thomas Jr. plays this week. That will impact his market share of targets in Week 12.
Since Week 6, Iosivas has had only one top-36 weekly finish (WR13), but he’s flex viable this week. Since Week 6, he has had a 10.3% target share with 28 receiving yards per game, 0.81 yards per route run, and a 10.7% first-read share. His role in the offense could be elevated this week with Tee Higgins dealing with Christian Gonzalez and Ja’Marr Chase out. In his last five games, he has had four red zone targets and two deep targets. Since Week 7, New England has ranked 16th in receiving yards per game allowed to the slot while also giving up the eighth-highest PPR points per target to the position.
Last week, Luther Burden finally overtook Olamide Zaccheaus to become a starter in the Bears’ offense. In Week 11, he had a 61.1% route share with a 15.6% target share, 27 receiving yards, and a 23.8% first-read share (second on the team). Burden ran 54.5% of his routes from the slot. This week, he faces a Steelers’ secondary that has the fourth-highest single high rate in the NFL (59.3%). Against single high, Burden ranks third in target per route run rate (21%) while leading the team with 3.30 yards per route run. Burden is a viable flex play this week. Since Week 7, Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Sit’em
Josh Downs is the WR45 in fantasy points per game with top-36 weekly scoring finishes in four of his last five games (WR34, WR15, WR27, WR21). Downs has a 16.2% target share with 35.1 receiving yards per game, 1.59 yards per route run, and an 18% first-read share. He is second on the team with nine red zone targets and has three deep targets. There’s more volatility with how the Colts will attack the Chiefs this week after what we saw from them last week than I anticipated. In Weeks 5-10, Kansas City had the ninth-highest single high rate (56%). Last week, they flipped the script and returned to their classic bread and butter as a two-high heavy defense (58.5%). The variations in their coverage structure mean massively different things for their receiving options. If they roll out single-high, I would expect Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren to lead the passing attack. If they continue with more two high this week, Indy will look to feature Josh Downs and Michael Pittman more. Against single high, Downs is third on the team with a 21% target per route run rate with 1.52 yards per route run. Against two high, Downs leads the team with a 26% target per route run rate and is third in yards per route run with 1.66. The Chiefs have kept slot receivers in check since Week 7, so that obviously doesn’t help Downs even if the Chiefs do utilize more two-high this week. Since Week 7, they have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Adding to the chess match of this game is the Sauce Gardner shadow possibility. I don’t see Sauce Gardner shadowing Worthy or Rashee Rice in this game. Gardner played nine snaps in the slot in his first game with Indy, but that wasn’t on Drake London, who he followed on 72.4% of his routes. My projection for how Indy defends the Chiefs is to revert back to their two-high structure that they utilized in Weeks 7-9 (53.5-65.6%). That would guard against Patrick Mahomes’ deep ball and effectively limit Xavier Worthy in the process. That would then leave Kenny Moore to deal with Rashee Rice when he is in the slot. Looking at the game unfolding this way would be detrimental to Worthy. If Indy moves back to two high, it’ll negatively impact Worthy, as he has only a 15% target per route run rate and 0.64 yards per route run against two high. Since Week 7, Indy has allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Worthy this week. I expect Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce to lead the way for the Chiefs this week.
Last week, Greg Dortch finished as the WR12 in weekly scoring, securing all six of his targets with 66 receiving yards and a score. It was absolutely fraudulent production, though. Jacoby Brissett‘s truckload of passing attempts helped to prop up Dortch. Dortch had only a 10.5% target share and 14.3% first-read share. Unless you expect Brissett to throw the football another 57 times this week, you shouldn’t be flexing Dortch. It’s also a horrible matchup for Dortch. Since Week 7, Jacksonville has allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers (Dortch 82.5% slot rate last week).
Last week, with Jakobi Meyers more involved in the offense, Parker Washington saw his target share drop to 9.1% and his first-read share dip to 13.3% despite having a 91.7% route share. I have zero interest in flexing Washington this week. Arizona has held slot receivers in check. Since Week 7, they have allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Excluding Week 3, Tre Tucker has had a 15.9% target share with 39.7 receiving yards per game, 1.21 yards per route run, and a 20.5% first-read share. In those nine games, he has five red zone targets and eight deep targets. This week, he faces a Cleveland secondary that has the second-highest single high rate (64.3%). Against single high (excluding Week 3), Tucker has a 15% target per route run rate and 1.25 yards per route run. He’s a middling flex play again this week. Since Week 7, Cleveland has ranked 17th in PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
The Steelers have been giving to perimeter wide receivers since Week 7, allowing the most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most PPR points per target to the position. I would love to tell you that it’s a great week to flex DJ Moore, but it isn’t. The coverage matchup isn’t in his favor. This week, he faces a Steelers’ secondary that has the fourth-highest single high rate in the NFL (59.3%). Against single high, Moore has disappeared with a 14% target per route run rate and only 1.12 yards per route run. He ranks fifth and sixth in those statistical categories among the Bears’ receiving options against single high. Sit Moore this week.
Jerry Jeudy has only one weekly finish this season as a top-30 wide receiver while leading the Browns with a 19.7% target share. He has 35.6 receiving yards per game with 1.02 yards per route run and a 26.9% first-read share. Jeudy leads the team with eight red zone targets and 11 deep targets. I wish I could tell you that I had faith in Jeudy blowing up with a good game this week with a nice matchup incoming, but at this point of the season I can’t. Could it happen? Sure. Since Week 7, the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since he arrived in Seattle, Rashid Shaheed has had a 70.7% route share with an 8.9% target share, 15 receiving yards per game, 0.73 yards per route run, and a 10.3% first-read share. He has had one red zone target and one deep target. This week, Shaheed faces a Titans’ defense that has the third-highest two-high rate (57.5%). Against two high, Shaheed has had only a 5% target per route run rate and 1.00 yards per route run. It’s a very small sample, but it’s not encouraging at all. Not nearly enough to step out on a limb and flex Shaheed this week. Sit him as his role still evolves in this offense.
And just like that, Tyler Lockett‘s 2025 fantasy viability went up in smoke. Last week, his route share dipped to 44.9% as the Raiders utilized more 12 personnel. Lockett is droppable in redraft leagues. I didn’t see that coming, but sadly, that’s where we are.
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