The Primer: Week 11 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• ATL -3.5, O/U 42.5
• Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bijan Robinson
• Rico Dowdle
• Drake London*

*Drake London has been listed as questionable (illness/back). London didn’t practice Wednesday, but he had limited sessions on Thursday and Friday.*

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

Kyle Pitts is the TE15 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 outings this season. Pitts has a 19.8% target share with 46.7 receiving yards per game, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 17.8% first-read share. He has five red zone targets and four deep targets. Pitts has a wonderful matchup this week against a Carolina defense that has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards, the second-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. He could easily post his fifth TE1 outing this week.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Tetairoa McMillan (WR)

Tetairoa McMillan is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in red zone targets and 26th in deep targets among wide receivers. McMillan has a 24.5% target share, a 43.6% air-yard share, 61.8 receiving yards per game, 1.99 yards per route run, and a 30.1% first-read share. The volume constraints this offense has placed upon him have been capping his weekly upside. Across his last five games, he has surpassed 65 receiving yards only once. The matchup is good for McMillan, but it’s fair like I said to question his weekly upside at this point because of the offense that he is stuck in. Atlanta has the highest single high rate in the NFL (71.3%). Against single high, McMillan has seen his target per route run rate increase to 26% with 2.05 yards per route run. It’s a marginal increase, so don’t hit a backflip out of your seat. Atlanta’s issues covering perimeter wide receivers could help him this week, though. Since Week 6, they have allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Last week, Atlanta tried to force-feed Darnell Mooney with a 28.6% target share, a 31% air-yard share, and a 36.8% first-read share, but the results were pretty what they have been all season. Mooney secured only one of his eight targets with 17 scoreless receiving yards. In Mooney’s defense, only three of his eight targets were deemed catchable. Overall, he has a 14.7% target share, 27.1 receiving yards per game, 0.95 yards per route run, and a 20.4% first-read share. Mooney has had three red zone targets and five deep targets. Mooney is a desperation flex only at this point. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 17th in receiving yards per game.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Bryce Young (QB)

Bryce Young has been a fantasy nothingburger this season. He hasn’t eclipsed 11 fantasy points since Week 6. Young has managed more than 13 fantasy points only twice this season. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 40th in yards per attempt, 39th in highly accurate throw rate, and 33rd in catchable target rate. He has a nice matchup this week, but I have zero faith that it’ll lead to fantasy production. Since Week 6, Atlanta has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the 14th-highest CPOE, and the ninth-highest success rate per dropback.

Michael Penix Jr. (QB)

Michael Penix is the QB29 in fantasy points per game with a below-average matchup incoming. Among 42 qualifying passers, he ranks 17th in passing yards per game, 37th in highly accurate throw rate, 40th in catchable target rate, and has the fourth-highest off-target rate. This week, he gets a Carolina pass defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the 12th-most yards per attempt and passing yards per game, but they have also held passers to the 12th-lowest adjusted completion rate and 11th-lowest success rate per dropback. Penix is just another middling QB2 this week.

** Carolina’s passing attack has cratered, and with it, every receiving option outside of Tetairoa McMillan. Since Week 6, they have the second-lowest overall passing rate, the tenth-lowest red zone passing rate, and the third-lowest neutral passing rate. With the constraints of minimal volume and putrid quarterback play, Tetairoa McMillan is the only viable fantasy receiving option for Carolina.**

NYJ vs. NE | WAS vs. MIA | LAC vs. JAC | TB vs. BUF | CAR vs.ATL | CIN vs. PIT | HOU vs. TEN | GB vs. NYG | CHI vs. MIN | SF vs. ARI | SEA vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | BAL vs. CLE | DET vs. PHI | DAL vs. LV

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• PIT -5.5, O/U 48.5
• Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Ja’Marr Chase

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Joe Flacco (QB)

Since Week 6, Flacco has been the QB1 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked first in passing yards per game, 19th in yards per attempt, fifth in highly accurate throw rate, ninth in catchable target rate, and 16th in hero throw rate. Flacco should post another nice stat line this week. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the most passing yards per game, the 11th-most passing touchdowns, the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate, and ranked 18th in success rate per dropback.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Aaron Rodgers is the QB22 in fantasy points per game with only two QB1 outings this season. One of those games happens to be against Cincy. The last time they met, Rodgers was the QB7 for the week with 249 passing yards, a 67.6% completion rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, and four passing scores. We’ll see if Rodgers can reproduce that type of stat line this week. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers ranks 27th in yards per attempt, 23rd in passing yards per game, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Among that same sample, he leads the squad with 65.2% of his passing yardage arising from yards after the catch and sits at 40th in aDOT (6.2). He has been a glorified point guard all season. Cincy could allow him to be John Stockton again this week. The Bengals have allowed the most missed tackles and yards after the catch. Since Week 6, Cincy has allowed the sixth-highest passing yards per game and passer rating, the second-highest success rate per dropback, and the third-most passing touchdowns (tied).

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Jaylen Warren is set to crush this week. The last time he played against Cincy, he had 20 touches and turned them into 158 total yards as the RB7 for the week. Warren is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17 touches and 86 total yards. Among 64 qualifying backs, Warren ranks sixth in missed tackle rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 6, Cincy has allowed the most rushing yards per game, the third-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, and the second-most yards after contact per attempt.

Chase Brown (RB)

Chase Brown has been awesome since Joe Flacco arrived as the RB11 in fantasy points per game, averaging 14.6 touches and 91.5 total yards. Since Week 6, among 45 qualifying backs, he has ranked eighth in explosive run rate, third in missed tackle rate, and second in yards after contact per attempt. The last time he faced Pittsburgh, he had only 11 carries but ripped them apart with 9.8 yards per carry. Brown returned to his Christian McCaffrey-lite workload in Week 9 with a 95.6% snap rate, 19 touches, 112 total yards, and an insane 14 targets (29.8% target share). Brown is a borderline elite play this week. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has fielded a middling run defense, allowing the 14th-highest rushing success rate, ranking 16th in yards before contact per attempt and logging the 12th-lowest stuff rate.

Tee Higgins (WR)

Since Week 6, with Joe Flacco, Tee Higgins has been the WR5 in fantasy points per game with a 15.6% target share, a 31% air-yard share, 80.8 receiving yards per game, 2.20 yards per route run, and a 22.4% first-read share. In those four games, Higgins has four red zone targets and six deep targets. This week, Higgins faces a Pittsburgh pass defense with the third-highest single high rate (62.3%). Since Week 6, against single high, has had a 30% target per route run rate and 2.64 yards per route run. Higgins should tee off this week against a Pittsburgh secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Calvin Austin (WR)

Calvin Austin hasn’t been a strong fantasy producer all season, but he does have three top-36 finishes in weekly scoring this season among wide receivers (WR16, WR31, WR35). Austin has a 16.5% target share with 33.9 receiving yards per game, 1.37 yards per route run, and a 21.5% first-read share. Austin has three red zone targets and seven deep targets this season. Austin missed the last meeting with the Bengals with a shoulder issue. With DJ Turner following D.K. Metcalf, Austin should see Cam Taylor-Britt (66.7% catch rate and 133.9 passer rating allowed) and Dax Hill (77.8% catch rate and 113.3 passer rating allowed) all day, which should lead to a fruitful stat line. Austin is a strong flex play this week.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

D.K. Metcalf (WR)

The last time these two teams met, D.J. Turner (2025: 47.4% catch rate and 78.4 passer rating allowed) shadowed D.K. Metcalf on 78.1% of his routes, holding him to four targets, two receptions, and 45 scoreless receiving yards in his coverage. I expect Turner to be in Metcalf’s back pocket again this week. Metcalf is the WR29 in fantasy points per game with a 19.9% target share, a 38.6% air-yard share, 1.95 yards per route run, 55.8 receiving yards per game, and a 25.5% first-read share. He has nine red zone targets and ten deep targets this season. Metcalf was the WR42 in weekly scoring his last time out against Cincy. I wouldn’t expect a big game from him this week.

**I’d love to tell you that Pittsburgh had a viable tight end to stream this week against Cincy, but I don’t trust any of their tight ends. Since Week 8, the Pittsburgh tight end situation has been a three-way committee. Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington have all had 23.2-54.5% route shares and between 6.9-8.8% target shares. Washington leads the group with three red zone targets, while Smith and Freiermuth each have one. It sucks, but I don’t feel comfortable recommending any of them this week as a streaming option.**

NYJ vs. NE | WAS vs. MIA | LAC vs. JAC | TB vs. BUF | CAR vs.ATL | CIN vs. PIT | HOU vs. TEN | GB vs. NYG | CHI vs. MIN | SF vs. ARI | SEA vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | BAL vs. CLE | DET vs. PHI | DAL vs. LV

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

• HOU -6.5, O/U 37.5
• Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Nico Collins

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Davis Mills (QB)

It looks like Davis Mills will get another start this week as C.J. Stroud continues to work through the concussion protocol. Last week, Davis Mills exploded as the QB1 in fantasy. He lit Jacksonville up for 292 yards through the air, two passing scores, 20 rushing yards, and a rushing score. Mills had only 6.49 yards per attempt and a 71.1% catchable target rate, but he also had a decent 53.3% highly accurate throw rate and a 6.7% hero throw rate. Mills could flirt with QB1 production again this week. Since Week 6, Tennessee has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the fourth-highest success rate per dropback.

Woody Marks (RB)

It looks like Woody Marks has taken the backfield over again. Last week, he played 80% of the offensive snaps with 16 touches and 81 total yards as the RB11 for the week. Overall, among 64 qualifying backs, Marks ranks 25th in explosive run rate and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he gets to face a Tennessee run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest explosive run rate, and the 12th-most yards before contact per attempt.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jayden Higgins (WR)

Jayden Higgins is the only other Houston wide receiver (outside of Nico Collins) who has any type of fringe flex viability. Last week, Xavier Hutchinson had a 51% route share and didn’t draw a single target. Christian Kirk and Jaylin Noel logged 44.9% and 32.7% route shares. In Week 10, Higgins had a 49% route share, which isn’t great and was fourth on the team, but he had a 15.6% target share, a 22% air-yard share, finishing with a 29% target per route run rate, 42 receiving yards, 1.75 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share. Higgins also had two red zone targets and a deep target. I hate Houston’s deployment of their wide receivers so much this season. It makes me furious. Higgins is a risky flex play that could pay off this week. Since Week 6, the Titans have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the second-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Cam Ward (QB)

No one should be starting Cam Ward in fantasy at this point. We have seen a long enough track record this season of Ward being a nothingburger for fantasy. Even if I had the inkling to have faith in Ward, it wouldn’t be this week. Since Week 6, Houston has allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest CPOE, and the lowest passer rating and success rate per dropback. Ward is droppable in every redraft format.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Since Week 7, the Tennessee backfield has been a near-even split, with Tony Pollard having a 54.3% snap rate with a 33.3% route share and 10.8% target share. He has averaged 11.7 touches and 60.6 total yards during this three-game stretch with four red zone rushing attempts (Spears, four). I don’t want to flex either of these Titans backs this week. Since Week 6, Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest rushing success rate, the lowest missed tackle rate, and they have had the seventh-highest stuff rate.

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Since Week 7, the Titans’ backfield has been an even split with Spears having a 46.3% snap rate while averaging ten touches and 61.4 total yards. During those three games, he also had four red zone rushing attempts (Pollard, four) with a 38.9% route share and 10.8% target share. Sit Spears this week in a bad matchup. Since Week 6, Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest rushing success rate, the lowest missed tackle rate, and they have had the seventh-highest stuff rate.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

It looks like Calvin Ridley will be back this week (hamstring). He had limited practice sessions all week. Ridley is the WR57 in fantasy points per game with only one top-36 weekly finish this season. In six games played this season, Ridley has only four deep targets and one red zone target. I have zero interest in plugging Ridley into a flex spot this week against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Elic Ayomanor (WR)

I’ll keep this short and sweet. I don’t want to play any Tennessee pass-catching option against Houston this week. Ayomanor hasn’t managed double-digit fantasy points since Week 3. I don’t think that he breaks that streak this week against a pass defense that has allowed the lowest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Chimere Dike (WR)

I won’t waste words here. I don’t want to play any Tennessee skill players this week, much less their starting slot receiver. Just when we thought we could trust a Tennessee pass catcher, Dike follows up his strong Week 8 performance with three targets and five receiving yards and in Week 9. Houston has allowed the ninth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

Dalton Schultz has been on a heater with TE7 and TE4 weekly scoring finishes in the last two games. Since Week 3, Schultz has had an 18.5% target share, 54.4 receiving yards per game, 1.75 yards per route run, and a 20.2% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had four red zone targets and three deep targets. This isn’t the week to chase points, though. Schultz has a rough matchup this week. Tennessee has allowed the eighth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game, the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game, and the eighth-lowest yards per reception.

NYJ vs. NE | WAS vs. MIA | LAC vs. JAC | TB vs. BUF | CAR vs.ATL | CIN vs. PIT | HOU vs. TEN | GB vs. NYG | CHI vs. MIN | SF vs. ARI | SEA vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | BAL vs. CLE | DET vs. PHI | DAL vs. LV

Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

• GB -7, O/U 43.5
• Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Jacobs

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Romeo Doubs left last week’s game with a chest injury. He practiced in full all week and doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 11. Doubs is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, ranking second on the team with ten red zone targets while leading the way with ten deep targets. Doubs has a 19.6% target share with 49.6 receiving yards per game, 1.85 yards per route run, and a 24.9% first-read share. Since Week 8, the Giants have had the second-highest single high rate (69.8%). Against single high, Doubs has seen his numbers improve across the board with a 20.3% target share, 1.91 yards per route run, and a 27.5% first-read share. Since Week 6, New York has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Doubs is a strong play this week.

Christian Watson (WR)

Christian Watson is a high upside flex play this week. Since his return in Week 8, he has operated as the team’s field stretcher with 50% of his 12 targets coming downfield and Watson logging a 25.8 aDOT. Since Week 8, he has had a 10.9% target share with a 38.2% air-yard share, 2.29 yards per route run, and a 13.8% first-read share. Since Week 8, the Giants have had the second-highest single high rate (69.8%). Since his return, Watson has had a 16% target per route run rate and ranked second on the team in yards per route run (2.58) against single high. Watson’s downfield role will come in handy this week against a secondary that has allowed the fifth-most deep passing yards per game and the 11th-highest passer rating to downfield targets. Watson should have a strong game against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jordan Love (QB)

Jordan Love has failed to surpass 14 fantasy points in three of his last four games as the QB17 in fantasy points per game this season. Despite that fact, among 42 qualifying passers, Love still ranks 11th in passing yards per game, eighth in yards per attempt and passer rating, and 13th in highly accurate throw rate and hero throw rate. Love should return solid QB2 value this week, but I’ll be surprised if he manages more than that. Since Week 6, New York has allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game, the fifth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and ranked 16th in success rate per dropback and yards per attempt allowed.

Jameis Winston (QB)

Jameis Winston will draw the start for New York this week with Jaxson Dart in the concussion protocol. Last year, in Weeks 8-15, Winston was the QB10 in fantasy points per game. During that span, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked second in passing yards per game, 20th in yards per attempt, 31st in highly accurate throw rate, and 16th in hero throw rate. This week, he faces a Green Bay pass defense that, since Week 6, has been a slightly below-average matchup for quarterbacks, giving up the eighth-fewest passing yards per game and the fifth-fewest yards per attempt while also relinquishing the 12th-highest CPOE and sitting at 17th in success rate per dropback. Winston is a mid-range QB2 this week.

Theo Johnson (TE)

Since Week 5, Theo Johnson has been the TE13 in fantasy points per game with an 18.8% target share, 41.3 receiving yards per game, 1.39 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. He has run hot with touchdowns with four scores in those six games. In those six games, he has had six red zone targets and one deep target. Johnson is only a low-end streaming option this week at tight end. Green Bay has allowed the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game and the lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Johnson could score again this week and save his fantasy day, though. Green Bay has allowed the ninth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Last week, Tyrone Tracy resumed his lead-back duties for New York. He played 65.7% of the snaps with 14 of 22 running back rushing attempts with a 37.2% route share (5.6% target share). He had only one red zone rushing attempt, though, as Devin Singletary had three. Tracy finished with 15 touches and 71 total yards. Tracy is a volume-driven flex that is a risky bet to get into the end zone this week. Tracy has only a 3.1% explosive run rate, an 8% missed tackle rate, and 2.03 yards after contact per attempt this season. He won’t find much room to run this week. Since Week 6, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Wan’Dale Robinson is the WR26 in fantasy points per game with a 23.5% target share, 60.2 receiving yards per game, 1.73 yards per route run, and a 28.3% first-read share. Robinson is second on the team with six red zone targets and leads the team with 11 deep targets. This week’s matchup with Green Bay isn’t a great one. Since Week 6, Green Bay has limited slot receivers to the 14th-fewest PPR points per target and the second-fewest receiving yards per game. Robinson’s underneath role also doesn’t play well against a defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards after the catch. Robinson is a PPR flex only this week as he’s still a solid volume bet while the ceiling isn’t high.

Matthew Golden (WR)

Matthew Golden is dealing with a shoulder injury. He was limited all week in practice and has been listed as questionable. In the last game he was active, Golden had only a 39.5% route share, 8.1% target share, and 8.7% first-read share. I expect him to be a part-time player this week again. Sit Golden this week.

Luke Musgrave (TE)

In his first game as the Packers’ starting tight end this season, Musgrave had a 76.2% route share with an 8.3% target share, 23 receiving yards, and 0.72 yards per route run. Musgrave had a 3.3 aDOT and a 15.8% first-read share. This isn’t the matchup to look to stream Musgrave against. The Giants have allowed the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game, the seventh-fewest yards per reception, and the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

NYJ vs. NE | WAS vs. MIA | LAC vs. JAC | TB vs. BUF | CAR vs.ATL | CIN vs. PIT | HOU vs. TEN | GB vs. NYG | CHI vs. MIN | SF vs. ARI | SEA vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | BAL vs. CLE | DET vs. PHI | DAL vs. LV