Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
- IND -3.5, O/U 44.5
- Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Texans Players & Weekly Rankings
| C.J. Stroud | QB | QB2 |
| Woody Marks | RB | RB2 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB4 |
| Nico Collins | WR | WR1/2 |
| Jayden Higgins | WR | WR3 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | WR4/5 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | WR6 |
| Jaylin Noel | WR | WR6 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE1 |
Colts Players & Weekly Rankings
| Daniel Jones | QB | QB2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | RB | RB4 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | WR3 |
| Josh Downs | WR | WR3/4 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | WR3/4 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jayden Higgins‘ role in the Houston offense has been growing weekly. He has two top-24 weekly finishes in his last three games (WR22, WR23). Last week, he had a 67.7% route share with a 30% target share, a 51.3% air-yard share, 38 receiving yards, 1.81 yards per route run, and a 38.9% first-read share. Since Week 10, he has had a 33% target per route run rate, 1.93 yards per route run, and a 22.9% first-read share. Higgins has quietly been crushing. In his last three games, he has four red zone targets and five deep targets. Since the arrival of Sauce Gardner, Indy has utilized man coverage at the third-highest rate (38.8%) and single-high at the fourth-highest rate (64.7%). Since Week 10, against single high, Higgins has had a 32% target per route run rate, 1.62 yards per route run, and a 22.2% first-read share. In the same stretch, against man coverage, he has had a 41% target per route run rate, 1.88 yards per route run, and a 28% first-read share. Since Week 10, Indy has still allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 5, Dalton Schultz has been the TE11 in fantasy points per game, drawing an 18.2% target share with 53 receiving yards per game, 1.69 yards per route run, and a 20.3% first-read share. In those seven games, he has one score, five red zone targets, and four deep targets. Schultz is a strong TE1 again this week. The Colts have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
The single high destroyer is back this week with another single high heavy matchup. This Houston secondary is no pushover, so Pierce isn’t a locked-in smash play (far from it). Pierce should be leaned on this week by Daniel Jones, though. Overall, he is the WR38 in fantasy points per game with three top-24 weekly finishes (WR22, WR15, WR14). This week, he faces a Texans’ pass defense that has leaned two-high heavy in only three games this season. In their other contests, they have utilized single high with 61% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Pierce has been the receiving option that Jones has leaned on heavily with a 26.1% target share, 3.12 yards per route run, and a 30% first-read share. Pierce is a bet on usage and talent this week because his matchup is horrible. Choosing to plug him into a fantasy lineup will depend on the other options on your roster. Since Week 8, Houston has allowed the fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Downs is the WR51 in fantasy points per game with four top-36 weekly finishes this season. Overall, Downs has a 16.5% target share with 32.6 receiving yards per game, 1.53 yards per route run, and an 18.4% first-read share. Downs is tied for second on the team in red zone targets while seeing only three deep targets. This week, he faces a Texans’ pass defense that has leaned two-high heavy in only three games this season. In their other contests, they have utilized single high with 61% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Downs has seen his numbers dip with a 16.2% target share, 1.44 yards per route run, and an 18.1% first-read share. The coverage matchup isn’t in his favor, but Houston has been much more vulnerable to the slot than on the perimeter. Since Week 8, they have allowed the 14th-highest PPR points per target and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Downs is a solid flex this week, especially in PPR formats.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
C.J. Stroud is the QB21 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 outings under his belt (QB1, QB11). Among 45 qualifying passers, Stroud ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, 26th in catchable target rate, and 13th in hero throw rate. Stroud faces an Indy pass defense that, since the addition of Sauce Gardner, has allowed the ninth-lowest passer rating, the fourth-lowest CPOE, and only one passing touchdown. Stroud will have his work cut out for him this week.
Daniel Jones has been struggling since Week 9. His last QB1 outing was in Week 8. Since Week 9, among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, Jones has ranked ninth in passing yards per game, but he also sits at 34th in CPOE, 33rd in highly accurate throw rate, and has the 14th-highest off-target rate. Since Week 8, Houston has been a no-fly zone, giving up the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, the lowest success rate per dropback, and the sixth-fewest passing yards per game. Jones won’t have much time in the pocket to survey the field this week. Since Week 8, Houston has had the third-best pressure rate. Just ask Josh Allen about it. Jones is also dealing with a fractured fibula. In every practice clip I saw, his mobility didn’t look great. I’m downgrading the entire passing attack this week because of my worries about Jones.
Woody Marks is a volume-driven RB2 this week. Since Week 10, he has been the RB33 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.3 touches and 67 total yards with a 72.1% snap rate. During that span, he has had 13 of the team’s 14 red zone rushing attempts. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 21st in explosive run rate and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. He has a tough matchup this week. Since Week 8, Indy has allowed the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Michael Pittman Jr. is the WR10 in fantasy points per game and ranks second on the Colts in red zone and deep targets. Pittman has a 21.4% target share with 55.2 receiving yards per game, 1.82 yards per route run, and a 24.9% first-read share. This week, he faces a Texans’ pass defense that has leaned two-high heavy in only three games this season. In their other contests, they have utilized single high with 61% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Pittman has seen his target share drop to 19.2% with 1.40 yards per route run and a 21.2% first-read share. Pittman is a tough player to feel confident in this week. Since Week 8, Houston has allowed the fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
ATL vs. NYJ | LAR vs. CAR | NO vs. MIA | SF vs. CLE | HOU vs. IND | JAC vs. TEN | ARI vs. TB | MIN vs. SEA | BUF vs. PIT | LV vs. LAC | DEN vs. WAS | NYG vs. NE
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
- JAC -6.5, O/U 41.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | QB1/2 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | RB1/2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | RB3/4 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | WR3 |
| Parker Washington | WR | WR3 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | WR3 |
| Dyami Brown | WR | WR6 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | TE2 |
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
| Cam Ward | QB | QB2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | RB3 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB3 |
| Elic Ayomanor | WR | WR4 |
| Chimere Dike | WR | WR4 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | TE2 |
| Gunnar Helm | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Trevor Lawrence has been playing better ball lately. He has QB1 outings in weekly scoring in three of his last four games (QB11, QB7, QB12). Since Week 9, among 34 qualifying passers, he ranks 14th in highly accurate throw rate and yards per attempt, sixth in catchable target rate, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. He could easily stack another strong game this week against Tennessee. Since Week 8, the Titans have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, and the ninth-highest success rate per dropback.
Travis Etienne is the QB12 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.6 touches and 80.6 total yards. Last week, he reclaimed his clear lead role with a 63.9% snap rate, a 45.7% route share, and a 13.3% target share. He did split the red zone rushing work with Bhayshul Tuten, with each player seeing two red zone rushing attempts. Among 54 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks 26th in explosive run rate and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. He should have another nice game this week. Since Week 8, Tennessee’s run defense has allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the third-most yards before contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest rushing success rate.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Cam Ward is a low-end QB2 again this week. Since Week 9, among 34 qualifying passers, he is still struggling, ranking 29th in yards per attempt, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, and 22nd in catchable target rate. I’m not going overboard with his QB4 finish last week which was heavily fueled by his 37 rushing yards and first rushing score of the season. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed the tenth-most passing yards per game, the 13th-highest success rate per dropback, and ranked 17th in adjusted completion rate.
Last week, Bhayshul Tuten was shoved back into a clear backup role with only a 21.3% snap rate with seven touches and 17 total yards. Tuten did split the red zone work with Travis Etienne, with both backs seeing two red zone rushing attempts. Tuten is back to being a touchdown-dependent flex play. Among 54 qualifying backs, Tuten has been awesome, ranking sixth in missed tackle rate and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 8, Tennessee’s run defense has allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the third-most yards before contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest rushing success rate.
Calling Brian Thomas Jr.‘s 2025 season a disappointment is probably a massive understatement, as the WR37 in fantasy points per game. Thomas hasn’t played a game with Jakobi Meyers, so that’ll be interesting to see how their roles evolve in the offense. Thoma has a 20.1% target share with 52.5 receiving yards per game, 1.60 yards per route run, and a 23.9% first-read share. In his eight games played, he has only four red zone targets and 12 deep targets. Thomas could have a nice game this week to remind us why we all loved him so much this summer. Since Week 8, Tennessee has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Over the last two games, Meyers has had an 81.4% route share with a 23.1% target share, 57 receiving yards per game, 2.38 yards per route run, and a 24.3% first-read share. Those are amazing numbers, also when you take into account that in those weeks he was the WR22 and WR20 in weekly scoring. Meyers will see a market share hit with Brian Thomas Jr. back, but it’s up in the air how substantial it will be. Since Week 11, Meyers has had three red zone targets and zero deep targets. Meyers is a decent flex play this week. Since Week 8, Tennessee has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 7, Parker Washington has been the WR24 in fantasy points per game with a 20.4% target share, 53.2 receiving yards per game, 1.68 yards per route run, and a 23.8% first-read-share. All of his market share metrics will take a hit with Brian Thomas Jr. back. In his last five games, Washington has had six red zone targets and five deep targets. He carries some risk this week with uncertainty regarding how the passing game usage will shake out, but he’s still a solid flex play. Since Week 8, Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Elic Ayomanor will be back this week. He managed limited practices all week (hamstring) and has been listed as questionable. Ayomanor is the WR56 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 finishes this season in weekly scoring, but none since Week 3. Ayomanor has a 16.9% target share with 33.4 receiving yards per game, 1.12 yards per route run, and a 22.2 % first-read share. In his ten games played, he has five red zone targets and ten deep targets. Ayomanor isn’t a sexy option, but he’s a viable deep league flex play this week. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Since Week 6, Tony Pollard has averaged 12.5 touches and 49.3 total yards while seeing five red zone rushing attempts (Tyjae Spears, four). During this span, he has played 51.2% of the snaps with a 32.7 route share and a 9.5% target share. No Tennessee back has been efficient with their touches. Pollard has only a 2.1% explosive run rate, an 11% missed tackle rate, and 2.28 yards after contact per attempt. Sit Pollard this week. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-fewest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate.
Since Week 6, Tyjae Spears has been equally sharing the backfield with Tony Pollard, with 9.2 touches and 48.9 total yards per game. He has had a 48.6% snap rate, a 41.2% route share, and an 11.4% target share. Spears hasn’t been efficient with his work, with a 2.7% explosive run rate, an 11% missed tackle rate, and only 2.22 yards after contact per attempt. I have no interest in flexing Spears this week. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-fewest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate.
Since Week 8, Dike has had a 71% route share with a 14.5% target share, 39 receiving yards per game, 1.36 yards per route run, and a 20.5% first-read share. In those four games, he has four red zone targets and two deep targets. Jourdan Lewis is back this week for Jacksonville, which is huge. In Weeks 1-9, when he was active, the Jaguars held slot receivers to the second-fewest PPR points per target and the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game. Sit Dike this week.
Strange is the TE20 in fantasy points per game. He returned last week and immediately rolled back into his usual role while logging his second TE1 week of the season. Strange has a 60.5% route share, a 14.6% target share, 49.5 receiving yards per game, 2.23 yards per route run, and a 14.7% first-read share. The biggest problem for Strange has been the team’s reluctance to give him any high-value usage. In his six games played, he has only one red zone target and two deep targets. He’s basically just soaking up empty PPR calories weekly. This isn’t the week to look to stream a player like that. The Titans have allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
ATL vs. NYJ | LAR vs. CAR | NO vs. MIA | SF vs. CLE | HOU vs. IND | JAC vs. TEN | ARI vs. TB | MIN vs. SEA | BUF vs. PIT | LV vs. LAC | DEN vs. WAS | NYG vs. NE
Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB1 |
| Michael Carter | RB | RB4 |
| Zonovan Knight | RB | RB3 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | WR3 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR3 |
| Greg Dortch | WR | WR5 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE1 |
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB1/2 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB2 |
| Rachaad White | RB | RB3/4 |
| Sean Tucker | RB | RB3/4 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | WR1/2 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | WR6 |
| Tez Johnson | WR | WR4 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jacoby Brissett has finished no lower than QB12 in weekly scoring in every start this season. Yes, I said that correctly. He has been a QB1 IN EVERY GAME he has started this season. Since Week 6, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Brissett has ranked first in passing yards per game, 18th in yards per attempt, 14th in highly accurate throw rate, and 24th in catchable target rate. He could easily be a QB1 again this week. Since Week 8, Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most passing yards per game, the tenth-most yards per attempt, and ranked 18th in success rate per dropback.
I have no clue how Tampa Bay will deploy its backfield this week. I do know that Bucky Iriving is the only back that I would consider putting in a lineup this week, though. Irving should have a prominent role this week, while I do have worries about what his volume floor and ceiling are. I can’t reasonably project Rachaad White or Sean Tucker to retain meaningful roles this week. I expect one of them to work in tandem with Irving, but it’s a coin flip of which back that will be. Before the injury, Irving wasn’t performing at the same stellar per-touch efficiency that he had been last year. He has logged only a 2.8% explosive run rate, a 14% missed tackle rate, and 1.93 yards after contact per attempt. Irving could improve those numbers this week, though, against a horrible Arizona run defense. Since Week 8, Arizona has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, the ninth-most rushing yards per game, and the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt.
Emeka Egbuka is the WR11 in fantasy points per game with a 24.6% target share, 68.1 receiving yards per game, 2.10 yards per route run, and a 30.5% first-read share. He has 12 red zone targets and 14 deep targets this season. Since Week 6, Ebguka has had only one top-20 weekly finish, so I get why people are hesitant about playing him. In most leagues, he is still an auto-play play, though, depending upon your lineup options. Since Week 8, Arizona has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Will Johnson will be back this week, so they will be a tougher matchup than those numbers imply.
Since Week 6, Cade Otton has been the TE18 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly finishes (TE11, TE6). Since Week 6, he has had a 21.8% target share with 47.8 receiving yards per game, 1.56 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. Otton’s biggest issue has been the lack of high-leverage usage with only one red zone target and zero deep targets across his last six games. He has essentially been the Brenton Strange of Tampa Bay, which is ironic. Otton is a strong tight end streaming option again this week, though. Arizona has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Baker Mayfield will play this week after sustaining a shoulder injury last week (non-throwing shoulder). His play has tailed off since Week 7, with only two QB1 outings since that time. Since Week 7, among 41 qualifying passers, Mayfield has ranked 41st in yards per attempt, 37th in passer rating, 40th in CPOE, 22nd in highly accurate throw rate, and 33rd in fantasy points per dropback. Mayfield could bounce back this week against Arizona, though. Since Week 8, Arizona’s pass defense has been struggling, giving up the second-highest yards per attempt, the highest CPOE, the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the third-highest success rate per dropback. Arizona will get Will Johnson back this week, though, so we’ll see how much that can help them. Johnson hasn’t played since Week 9.
With Jacoby Brissett starting, Harrison Jr. was the WR25 in fantasy points per game with a 19.9% target share, a 35.3% air-yard share, 54.8 receiving yards per game, 1.66 yards per route run, and a 29.5% first-read share. In those four games, he had six red zone targets and seven deep targets. We’ll see if he takes a backseat to Michael Wilson in his return, considering what Wilson has done in his absence. It’s tough to project. The matchup is good enough for him to at least offer flex value. Since Week 8, Tampa Bay has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also giving up the second-most receiving yards per game to the position.
Which version of Michael Wilson will we get this week? Will Wilson continue as the WR2 for the offense behind Trey McBride, or will Mavin Harrison Jr.’s return crush his production? We shall see. In Weeks 6-10, with Jacoby Brissett starting and Harrison Jr. active, Wilson had a 12.8% target share with 44.8 receiving yards per game, 1.19 yards per route run, and a 15.8 first-read share. In those four games, he had five red zone targets and three deep targets. In the last two games, without Harrison Jr., Wilson has had a 30.8% target share with 151.5 receiving yards per game, 3.16 yards per route run, and a 38.6% first-read share. Those splits are absolutely insane. Wilson is a solid flex play this week, but we’ll see how the target pecking order will shake out. Since Week 8, Tampa Bay has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also giving up the second-most receiving yards per game to the position.
Last week, with Chris Godwin back, Johnson still retained a 78.6% route share as Chris Godwin‘s return cut into Sterling Shepard‘s playing time. Since Week 6, Johnson has had four top-36 weekly finishes while drawing a 13.9% target share with 35.8 receiving yards per game, 1.17 yards per route run, and a 13.7% first-read share. His fantasy output has been greatly aided by touchdowns, with five in that six-game stretch. During that span, he has also had seven red zone targets and four deep targets. Johnson is a decent flex option this week. Since Week 8, Arizona has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Will Johnson will be back this week, so they will be a tougher matchup than those numbers imply.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Since Week 10, Zonovan Knight has averaged a 43.5% snap share with 11.3 touches and 36.6 total yards per game. He saved his fantasy day with touchdowns in each of the last two games. He hasn’t been impressive on a per-touch basis, with only a 10% missed tackle rate and 1.62 yards after contact per attempt. Knight is a touchdown or bust flex option this week with a bad matchup. Since Week 8, Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest rushing success rate, the 13th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Last week, Chris Godwin had only a 38.1% route share and an 11.8% target share. We have to see his playing time increase before we can look at him as a viable fantasy football option. Maybe that happens this week, but he could also see only a mild uptick in usage with a 50% route share. We’ll see. Sit Godwin.
*Sean Tucker and Rachaad White are volatile deep league flex options that I can’t project confidence with starting this week. The Tampa Bay backfield usage is unpredictable. This could be a three-way committee approach, or Bucky Irving and one of these backs could lead the way this week. We don’t know. If you’re forced to flex Tucker or White this week, I get it, but I won’t pretend like I know how this will play out. At least the matchup is good. Since Week 8, Arizona has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, the ninth-most rushing yards per game, and the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt.*
ATL vs. NYJ | LAR vs. CAR | NO vs. MIA | SF vs. CLE | HOU vs. IND | JAC vs. TEN | ARI vs. TB | MIN vs. SEA | BUF vs. PIT | LV vs. LAC | DEN vs. WAS | NYG vs. NE
Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks
- SEA -12, O/U 41.5
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
| Max Brosmer | QB | QB2 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | RB2 |
| Jordan Mason | RB | RB3/4 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR2 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | WR3/4 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | WR5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | TE1/2 |
Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings
| Sam Darnold | QB | QB1/2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | RB1/2 |
| Zach Charbonnet | RB | RB3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR1 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | WR4/5 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | WR5 |
| AJ Barner | TE | TE1/2 |
| Elijah Arroyo | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Sam Darnold is the QB20 in fantasy points per game with five QB1 outings in his last nine games. Among 46 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranks first in yards per attempt, third in highly accurate throw rate, 22nd in catchable target rate, and third in hero throw rate. He should have success through the air this week against Minnesota. His fantasy floor and ceiling just come down to how much passing volume he gets. Since Week 8, Minnesota has allowed the tenth-highest success rate per dropback, the tenth-highest CPOE, and has ranked 14th in passer rating. Minnesota still leads the NFL in blitz rate. Against the blitz, Darnold has the highest yards per attempt and big-time throw rate.
Kenneth Walker has seen his snap rate climb in each of the last three weeks from 43.5 to 62.5%. Last week, he had 11 of 17 running back carries, a 48.1% route share, and a 15.4% target share. He didn’t come away with a goal-line touchdown last week, but he still led the backfield with three of the five red-zone rushing attempts. He finished with 14 touches and 101 total yards. Among 54 qualifying backs, Walker ranks fourth in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate. Walker should have another strong RB2 week with RB1 upside. Since Week 8, Minnesota has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest rushing success rate, the 14th-highest rushing success rate to zone runs (Walker 55.8% zone), and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Aaron Jones has been the clear lead back for Minnesota since Week 10 with a 68.3% snap share, 14.3 touches per game, and 69 total yards per game. His per-touch metrics still aren’t great with a 3.3% explosive run rate, a 5% missed tackle rate, and 1.84 yards after contact per attempt. Jones should see 13-15 touches this week and at least return solid flex value. Since Week 8, Seattle’s run defense has taken a step back, allowing the 14th-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-most yards after contact per attempt, and ranked 18th in rushing success rate.
Zach Charbonnet has taken a back seat to Kenneth Walker. Last week, his snap share dipped to 31.3% with six carries and 35 rushing yards. He had two red zone rushing attempts while Walker had three. Charbonnet is a touchdown-dependent flex this week with a good matchup. Since Week 8, Minnesota has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest rushing success rate, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
AJ Barner is the TE21 in fantasy points per game, with four TE1 weekly finishes this season. He has three red zone targets in his last four games and is on the streaming tight end radar this week. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (66.7%). Since Week 10, against two high, Barner has had a 25% target share, 2.07 yards per route run, and a 5% first-read share (third on the team). Minnesota has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has had a season that has made him barely fantasy relevant as the TE25 in fantasy points per game, with only one weekly TE1 finish this season. Hockenson has a 15.1% target share, 27.2 receiving yards per game, 1.02 yards per route run, and a 14% first-read share. He has seen eight red zone targets and only one deep target. He’s on the low end of the tight end streaming radar this week, and that’s only because the line of fantasy viability for tight ends is low, and he has a plus matchup. Seattle has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Max Brosmer will get the start for Minnesota this week, and I don’t expect him to fare any better than JJ McCarthy has recently. In his final collegiate season, among 165 qualifying quarterbacks, Brosmer ranked 109th in yards per attempt, 124th in big-time throw rate, 16th in adjusted completion rate, and he had the 50th-lowest aDOT. I expect Brosmer to be a low-end QB2 this week. Since Week 8, Seattle has held passers to the second-fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-fewest passing yards per game, the second-lowest CPOE, and the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback.
Justin Jefferson is the WR15 in fantasy points per game with a 29.4% target share, a 40.4% air-yard share, 72.3 receiving yards per game, 2.14 yards per route run, and a 36.2% first-read share. He has 11 red zone targets and 17 deep targets this season. With Max Brosmer under center and a tough matchup this week, it’s tough to consider him as anything more than a volume-driven WR2. Since Week 8, Seattle has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Jordan Addison is a flex option that is best left on the bench this week. He is the WR34 in fantasy points per game with an 18.4% target share, a 31.9% air-yard share, 51.5 receiving yards per game, 1.52 yards per route run, and a 22.7% first-read share. He has nine red zone targets and 13 deep targets in eight games played. Since Week 8, Seattle has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
*Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed aren’t on the flex radar this week. Minnesota still has the highest two high rate in the NFL (66.7%). Since Week 10, against two high, Kupp has had a 10% target share, and Shaheed has had a 2.5% target share against two high. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and AJ Barner have been Seattle’s go-to players across the last three weeks against two high. Sit Kupp and Shaheed.*
ATL vs. NYJ | LAR vs. CAR | NO vs. MIA | SF vs. CLE | HOU vs. IND | JAC vs. TEN | ARI vs. TB | MIN vs. SEA | BUF vs. PIT | LV vs. LAC | DEN vs. WAS | NYG vs. NE
