Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Well, so much for the bounce back that I forecasted last week. Emeka Egbuka had nine targets that he turned into two receptions for 15 receiving yards. Since Week 7, he has had only two outings that landed him inside the top-36 for wide receiver weekly scoring (WR5, WR32). Since Week 7, he has had a 28.7% target share and a 36.4% first-read share that he has turned into only 48.1 receiving yards per game and 1.42 yards per route run. In those seven games, he has had eight red zone targets and six deep targets. Not all of Egbuka’s struggles can be laid at his feet, as during this stretch, only 50% of his targets have been catchable. Much of this has been related to Baker Mayfield‘s struggles. Hopefully, with the Bucs at full strength in the wide receiver room this week, Egbuka can have a bounce-back game with Mayfield playing better. With the improved target competition, I do expect his market share in the offense to fall. Egbuka falls into the WR2/3 or flex territory this week. Since Week 10, Atlanta has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Over the last two games, Godwin has had a 70.6% route share with a 20.7% target share, 66.5 receiving yards per game, 2.77 yards per route run, and a 22.2% first-read share. In those two games, he has had two red zone targets and one deep target. Godwin was the WR33 and WR27 in weekly scoring. Godwin is a strong WR3/flex. Since Week 10, Atlanta has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target and the eighth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
Since Week 12, without Drake London, Darnell Mooney has only once finished higher than WR69 in weekly scoring. In those three games, Mooney has had a 14% target share with 35 receiving yards per game, 1.40 yards per route run, and a 19.6% first-read share. Since Week 12, he has had three red zone targets and two deep targets. It’s been surprising how much he has struggled to command a high market share in the Atlanta passing offense with only Kyle Pitts to deal with weekly. He’s a decent flex play this week with a good matchup. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 10, Jayden Higgins has been the WR27 in fantasy points per game with an 18.1% target share, 46.8 receiving yards per game, 2.11 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. In those five games, he has had four red zone targets and six deep targets. This week, he faces an Arizona pass defense that has featured the fifth-highest rate of two high (57.1%). Since Week 10, against two high, Higgins has had an 18.4% target share with 2.14 yards per route run and a 22.1% first-read share. It’s nice to see that his usage and efficiency have remained stable and in line with his overall numbers. Higgins is a strong WR3/flex again this week. Since Week 10, Arizona has allowed the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 11, Jakobi Meyers has been the Jags’ unquestioned WR1 with a 24.5% target share, 60.8 receiving yards per game, 2.29 yards per route run, and a 29.9% first-read share. In those four games, he has had six red zone targets and one deep target. He’s a strong WR2/3 again this week. Since Week 10, New York has ranked 16th in PPR points per target against perimeter wide receivers.
In his six games played this season, McLaurin has two top 24 weekly finishes (WR8, WR20) with seven red zone targets and seven deep targets. McLaurin has a 19.8% target share with 2.15 yards per route run and a 26.2% first-read share. If Marcus Mariota is looking to stretch the field, McLaurin (13.7 aDOT) should have a strong game this week. New York has allowed the seventh-highest deep ball completion rate, the third-most deep passing yards per game, and the eighth-highest passer rating to downfield passing. This feels like a nice bounce-back spot for McLaurin. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and ranked 16th in receiving yards per game against perimeter wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel is the WR22 in fantasy points per game with a 23.1% target share, 46.8 receiving yards per game, 1.69 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share. He has 12 red zone targets and seven deep targets this season. Samuel could also have a strong day this week against a New York secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Since Week 5, Darius Slayton has had a 13.9% target share with 45.3 receiving yards per game, 1.80 yards per route run, a 14.5-yard average depth of target, and a 17.5% first-read share, per Fantasy Points Data. In those six games, he has had one red-zone target, eight deep targets, and three top-36 finishes in weekly scoring (WR34, WR27, WR19). Slayton is a strong flex play this week against the Commanders. His downfield role should come in handy for Jaxson Dart. Washington has allowed the third-highest completion rate and the second-highest passer rating on deep passes. Since Week 10, Washington has also allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Wan’Dale Robinson is having a wonderful breakout season as the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 25.9% target share with 63.7 receiving yards per game, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 30.9% first-read share. Robinson should have another strong game this week. Since Week 11, Washington has led the NFL in two high rate (70%!). Against two high, Robinson has maintained strong usage with a 25.6% target share, 1.81 yards per route run, and a 32.2% first-read share. Since Week 10, Washington has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs will see the Patrick Surtain shadow treatment this week. Surtain has shadowed five times this season, following A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Terry McLaurin, and Ja’Marr Chase on 64.3-94.7% of their routes. Only McLaurin scored a touchdown with Surtain in tow, but none of those receivers surpassed 61 receiving yards with Surtain following them. Since Week 10, Christian Watson has been the WR13 in fantasy points per game with a 21.6% target share, 61.8 receiving yards per game, 2.49 yards per route run, and a 28.4% first-read share. In those five games, Watson has had two red zone targets and 11 deep targets. Since Week 8, Denver has utilized two high at the ninth-highest rate (57.1%). Since Week 10, against two high, Watson has ranked second on the team with a 17.2% target share with 2.26 yards per route run (leads the team) and a 25.7% first-read share. If Surtain doesn’t follow Watson, I expect him to see a bump in usage, but I lean that he’ll be the one that Surtain follows. I’m worried about his outlook this week with Surtain on him. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also holding them to the 14th-fewest PPR points per target.
Courtland Sutton is the WR23 in fantasy points per game with an 18.5% target share, 59.5 receiving yards per game, 1.89 yards per route run, and a 23.4% first-read share. Sutton is second on the team in red zone targets (ten) and deep targets (13). Sutton is headed for a down game this week. Since Week 12, Green Bay has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (69.5%). Against two high, Sutton’s numbers have suffered with a 14% target share with 1.37 yards per route run and a 17.4% first-read share. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sutton needs a touchdown to save his fantasy day in Week 15.
Last week, Ladd McConkey led the team with a 19.2% target share, which amounted to only five targets that he turned into one reception and 12 receiving yards. The entire Bolts’ passing attack has to be downgraded with the passing volume in question. This week, he’ll lead the way again versus Kansas City’s two-high coverage. Since Week 11, Kansas City has had the third-highest two-high rate (62.2%). Since Week 6, against two high, McConkey has had a 24% target share with 1.19 yards per route run and a 24% first-read share (leads the team). McConkey’s dip in efficiency versus two high is concerning, especially when you also consider that Kansas City has been good against slot receivers. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to the position. If you have to play him this week, I get it, but don’t expect a massive stat line.
Sit’em
The Colts have been highly coverage-specific with their wide receiver usage, but they have a new quarterback and face a pass defense that has flipped back and forth between single and two high this year. I’m just going to look at the Colts’ receiving options with a top-down perspective this week. Alec Pierce is the WR34 in fantasy points per game with six weeks as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring. Pierce has an 18.7% target share with 69.9 receiving yards per game, 2.32 yards per route run, and a 22.8% first-read share. He has only five red zone targets as his main job has been as the deep threat, with 30.3% of his target volume coming via downfield targets (18.8 aDOT). This matchup doesn’t set up well for Pierce this week. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the fewest PPR points per target and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Also, they have allowed the eighth-fewest deep passing yards per game and the fifth-lowest passer rating to downfield targets.
The entire Jets’ passing attack is up in the air regarding their outlook for Week 15. The quarterback situation is unsettled, with Brady Cook possibly starting, but it’s possible that Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields could start. I’ll update this situation on Friday or Saturday when we have a clearer picture of who will be under center this week. The outlook could change drastically depending on who draws the start in Week 15.
Jerry Jeudy had his second-best game of the season last week with 76 receiving yards (one touchdown) and a WR15 finish for the week. Since Week 12, he has had a 13.6% target share with a 29.6% air-yard share, 47 receiving yards per game, 1.70 yards per route run, and an 18.2% first-read share. In those three games, Jeudy has zero red zone targets and three deep targets. Jeudy is back to low-end flex territory this week. Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the ninth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Sit Quentin Johnston this week. Two high coverage has been his kryptonite all season. Since Week 11, Kansas City has had the third-highest two-high rate (62.2%). Since Week 6, against two high, Johnston has had a 10.9% target share, 0.55 yards per route run, and a 13.8% first-read share. The Bolts will likely limit their passing volume again this week, and if Johnston is only a tertiary piece of a limited passing attack, he’s likely to disappoint.
Since Rashee Rice‘s return, Worthy hasn’t finished higher than WR28 in any week, and he has only two top 36 weekly finishes (WR28, WR33). Since Week 7, he has had a 15.3% target share, 44.4 receiving yards per game, 1.36 yards per route run, and a 19.4% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had three red zone targets and seven deep targets. Sit Worthy this week. Since Week 10, the Bolts have held perimeter wide receivers to the tenth-fewest PPR points per target and the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game.
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