The players below are the ones I’m looking at for NFL DFS GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Week 16 NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
The last time Justin Herbert threw for more than 220 yards was Week 9 — not so coincidentally, Joe Alt‘s last start. Herbert’s recent struggles should keep his rostership fairly low this week. However, this week’s matchup can get Herbert back on track.
Dallas tried to repair the damage to its defense, but those repairs have primarily come against the run. They are still getting lit up through the air by a wide range of quarterbacks, including J.J. McCarthy in Week 15. The Cowboys could also be without key players due to injury, including Quinnen Williams. Hebert’s a solid play for his value, given the increased ceiling due to the matchup.
Bryce Young (QB – CAR) vs. TB | DraftKings: $5,100/FanDuel: $6,600*
If you’re looking for a true low-rostered, budget-friendly quarterback with an extreme boom potential matchup, Bryce Young offers legitimate slate-breaking upside this week. The Buccaneers’ defense has struggled against the pass, with the past six quarterbacks facing them scoring between 18 and 42 fantasy points. Excluding Tyler Shough — who got his points on the ground — each of those quarterbacks had a minimum of 270 yards and two passing touchdowns.
Young has only had two games in which he threw for over 210 yards. So he is an extremely volatile player with a terribly low floor, but he does have the potential to push random extreme volume, and this is definitely the matchup for it to happen.
Detroit allows the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Pittsburgh allows the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
This is the perfect combination for extreme pass volume from both sides in a matchup with a 51.5 over/under. Ceiling games have been very limited this year for Aaron Rodgers because the Steelers lean heavily on the run, but this could be the first game where the Steelers are forced to push Rodgers to 40 attempts. He should have relatively low rostership, and you can’t beat the pricing.
Additional Considerations
Running Backs
This is a great time to take a chance on De’Von Achane, specifically in GPPs. Quinn Ewers is the Dolphins’ new starting quarterback, meaning we’ll have extremely low rostership on Achane. The Bengals have tightened up a bit against the run recently, but that’s more circumstantial than being effective at stopping the run.
Achane still has potential in this matchup with the possibility of checkdowns. There are times when he catches the ball so much that he’s essentially operating as the No. 1 WR. If the Dolphins intentionally push volume to Achane as a safety valve for Ewers, Achane could still have a ceiling game, and he makes for an interesting contrarian play.
Quinshon Judkins was a letdown in Week 15 with both Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson out. However, Chicago has consistently been easier to beat through the air than on the ground. Buffalo is the complete opposite and allows the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs, allowing over five yards per carry to the position.
The only concern would be Buffalo jumping out to an aggressive lead and Cleveland inexplicably opting to abandon the run, which is why Judkins will have extremely low rostership, more suitable for large tournament play.
You’ll have to play this one by ear, but if Woody Marks is out and the Texans confirm Jawhar Jordan will have a significant role, he is a very intriguing play in GPP. Jordan stepped in for Marks in Week 15 and had a fantastic day with 15 carries for 101 yards with two receptions on two targets for 17 yards.
Jordan has another excellent matchup against a Vegas defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. Nick Chubb seems on track to return, which should ensure Jordan doesn’t become a low-priced chalk play.
These two will be extremely popular chalk plays this week. However, paying up for one is still advisable. Bijan Robinson has a top-five matchup this week. Jahmyr Gibbs is coming off a down week and tends to bounce back with boom games after underperforming the prior week.
If either back puts up slate-breaking numbers at over 30% rostership and you do a full fade, you’ll have a tough time this week.
Additional Considerations
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf (WR – PIT) @ DET | DraftKings: $5,400/FanDuel: $7,400
DK Metcalf has had back-to-back 15+ fantasy point performances against Baltimore and Miami and should continue that success in an excellent matchup with Detroit. As we discussed with Aaron Rodgers, this matchup should naturally push extreme pass volume from both sides, and the Steelers’ points should primarily come via the pass.
A matchup against Tampa Bay is absolutely the correct matchup to deploy Tetairoa McMillan with confidence. Tampa Bay has allowed the 16th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, which is middle of the road, but that number is misleading.
Their schedule is stacked with teams that often lean aggressively into their tight ends and can be inconsistent with wide receivers. Teams that want to target wide receivers don’t have an issue, and Carolina is absolutely a team that wants to target wide receivers.
Vikings receivers not named Jalen Nailor have suffered at the hands of J.J. McCarthy, despite McCarthy having strong fantasy performances. However, this matchup favors a potential boom game for Jordan Addison.
Looking at matchups against the Giants, the receivers who have strong performances or singular big plays have largely been deep-ball, boom-type players, like Terry McLaurin, Jameson Williams, Christian Watson, Rome Odunze, Jahan Dotson, Rashid Shaheed and Quentin Johnston. The pattern is clear. This matchup leans pass-friendly, specifically for Addison.
This is another situation you’ll need to play by ear. Jacoby Brissett might be the most reliable volume quarterback at this point. Despite the terrible matchup in Week 15, Michael Wilson still had five receptions on 11 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. He’s priced up significantly. While he’ll still be a popular play, he won’t rise to the rostership level of a player like Ja’Marr Chase.
If Marvin Harrison Jr. is out, Wilson has a legitimate 30+ point ceiling. However, if Harrison plays, Wilson isn’t worth the price. Harrison then becomes an interesting play that would be far lower-rostered, due to general skepticism around Harrison’s upside.
Additional Considerations
Tight Ends
It might feel uncomfortable to play Travis Kelce without Patrick Mahomes, but he’s reasonably priced for the upside that he offers in this matchup. He’ll have low rostership because the price difference between him and Kyle Pitts is negligible, so most will just pay up for Pitts.
Gardner Minshew doesn’t offer a ton of upside, but what we do know is that he has zero problem targeting tight ends and was an excellent quarterback for Brock Bowers last year. Rashee Rice is in concussion protocol, only increasing the target share for Kelce.
Additional Considerations
D/ST
Tennessee D/ST vs. Kansas City | DraftKings: $2,500/FanDuel: $3,000*
There are plenty of fine options to pay up for at defense this week, from Houston to Buffalo. However, if you’re looking for a cheap play, the Titans are interesting. While I have confidence that Travis Kelce can pay off with ample targets, Gardner Minshew is a friendly defensive matchup and should offer plenty of opportunities for turnovers.
The Titans don’t have a fantastic defense, and they are a bit thin, but they have had multiple ceiling games where they’ve scored upwards of 15 fantasy points. Given the change at quarterback, this makes sense as a boom week for the Titans’ D/ST.
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