The NFL Week 16 DFS main slate has 11 games, and there isn’t a no-brainer game to stack, like the Rams versus the Lions in Week 15. Still, the first featured game stack below was comfortably my favorite, as there’s a mix of value and upside, and the opportunities are streamlined to a small pool of players. The second featured stack might not end up my second-favorite game to stack by the end of the week, but it’s an intriguing contest with a vast pool of useful players to stack fully or mini-stack. The core studs and values/punts sections have four players from the suggested game stacks. Additionally, two one-off suggestions are highlighted.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 16
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Cardinals vs. Falcons
Spread/Total: ATL -2.5/47.5 Points
Trey McBride is the NFL’s best tight end by a wide margin, and he’s been an unstoppable force since Kyler Murray was injured. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, McBride has had the following stats in nine games without Murray.
- 88.8% route participation rate
- 7.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 24.8% air yards share
- 24.8% target share
- 0.25 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 32.8% first-read rate
- 10.7 targets per game
- 76 receptions (8.4 per game)
- 796 receiving yards (88.4 per game)
- 2.05 yards per route run (Y/RR)
- Nine touchdowns
- 14 end-zone targets
- 23.6 DraftKings points per game
- 19.4 FanDuel points per game
- 20.2 expected fantasy points per game
McBride is a tight end who produces elite wideout numbers, making him a viable play in GPPs on any slate. Unsurprisingly, he’s projected as the TE1 by the DFS lineup optimizer. McBride also has the TE2 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 of salary) at FanDuel.
Kyle Pitts is also an intriguing tight end from this contest. It’s not point chasing to use him after last week’s blow-up, either. Pitts was playing well in the two previous games, too. In his previous three games, Pitts has rattled off the following numbers.
- 83.8% route participation rate
- 7.8-yard aDOT
- 32.2% air yards share
- 27.1% target share
- 0.31 TPRR
- 27.9% first-read rate
- 9.7 targets per game
- 24 receptions (8.0 per game)
- 338 receiving yards (112.7 per game)
- 3.63 Y/RR
- Three touchdowns
- One end-zone target
Pitts would benefit immensely from Drake London missing another game, but that might not be the case after London returned to practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday. Nevertheless, Pitts is in the GPP mix in a plus matchup, even if London suits up this week. The Cardinals have permitted the sixth-most DraftKings points per game (18.5) and the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (15.4) to tight ends since Week 11. Pitts is projected as the TE2 this week, with the TE4 value score at DraftKings and the TE1 value score at FanDuel.
The three other players featured on the table will be included in forthcoming sections.
Game: Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Spread/Total: TB -3.0/45.5 Points
Something must give in this NFC South battle. The Panthers want to pound the rock, ranking 23rd in pass rate over expectations (-3.6% PROE) since Week 11. Teams have shied away from the run against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has faced the fifth-highest PROE (4.0%) since Week 11, albeit with a -12.5% PROE from the Saints in a wet game in Week 14. I expect the underdog Panthers to put more on Bryce Young‘s plate. Last year, they had a blistering 10.2% PROE against the Buccaneers in two games.
According to StatHead, Young had 501 passing yards (250.5 per game), a 55.4% completion rate, 6.43 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, three passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, six sacks, five rush attempts, 25 rushing yards (12.5 per game), one rushing touchdown, 40.5 DraftKings points (20.25 per game) and 40.5 FanDuel points (20.5 per game) in his 2024 starts against the Buccaneers. Young is maddeningly inconsistent and has had more bad-to-mediocre DFS outings than good ones, but the Buccaneers are a get-right matchup. Tampa Bay has yielded the most DraftKings points per game (28.7) and FanDuel points per game (28.7) to signal-callers since Week 11. Since Young adds value with his legs and rarely has massive passing yardage outputs, single-stacking him is probably a better move than double-stacking him. However, some of his suggested pass-catching options are cheap enough to have viable DFS showings, even if Young only has a decent showing through the air, keeping double-stacks in play in GPPs.
Tetairoa McMillan is Carolina’s No. 1 wideout, and he’s having a stellar rookie campaign. Among 92 wide receivers with at least 200 routes this year, T-Mac is eighth in route participation rate (90.2%), fifth in air yards share (42.7%), 18th in target share (23.1%), tied for 25th in targets per route run (0.23), 21st in first-read rate (27.4%) and tied for ninth in end-zone targets (10). Unfortunately, his juicy underlying data has resulted in 59 receptions (4.2 per game), 851 receiving yards (60.8 per game) and six receiving touchdowns, which leaves something to be desired. T-Mac’s underlying data suggests potential for bigger DFS outputs, and it’s worth firing a few bullets at him as a bring-back from the Bucs or a stacking partner with Young in some GPPs, but he’s not my favorite pass-catching option from the Panthers. He also didn’t practice on Wednesday with a foot/ankle designation. So, gamers will need to track T-Mac’s practice participation level and game status.
Xavier Legette hasn’t made a second-year leap. He’s also had somewhat underwhelming numbers since the return of a fellow second-year wideout in Week 7. In Legette’s last eight games, he’s had just 22 receptions (2.8 per game), 276 receiving yards (34.5 per game), 1.45 Y/RR and two receiving touchdowns. Still, Legette had an adequate 74.3% route participation rate in those contests, and he had a noteworthy 30.7% air yards share.
In addition, there’s a sneaky angle that supports using Legette as a punt from this contest. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bucs have the fifth-highest blitz rate (29.0%) this season. Legette is second on the Panthers in air yards share (36.6%), target share (19.2%), tied for second in targets per route run (0.22), second in receptions (12), second in receiving yards (162) and has 1.82 Y/RR on 89 routes against the blitz this year. T-Mac has been Carolina’s top option against the blitz, but Legette has been solid if unspectacular.
Last week was the first time Baker Mayfield had all four of his top wide receivers, and he took advantage of his weaponry. Mayfield’s 277 passing yards against the Falcons in Week 15 were his third most this year and his most since Week 5. Mayfield also tossed two touchdowns, snapping a four-game stretch without multiple passing touchdowns.
Tampa Bay’s gunslinging quarterback doesn’t have an eye-catching matchup. Mayfield also has had more lousy showings than DFS-friendly ones in his previous eight games. As a result, he might have a low roster rate in GPPs, but his ceiling is high if the game shoots out, especially since he has an embarrassment of riches in his pass-catching corps. Since most of Mayfield’s DFS value is from his arm, double-stacking him is more appealing than doing so with Young.
Mike Evans had just a 65% route participation rate in his return from a broken collarbone, but that was the only blemish in last week’s numbers. He had the following stats against the Falcons.
- 17.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 171 air yards
- 48.4% air yards share
- 29.4% target share
- 0.38 TPRR
- 38.1% first-read rate
- 10 targets
- Six receptions
- 132 receiving yards
- 5.08 Y/RR
- One end-zone target
Evans was a monster last week, bullying Atlanta’s cornerbacks. He has a ceiling worth chasing in GPPs. Evans’ matchup isn’t too shabby, either. The Panthers have allowed the 12th-most DraftKings points per game (21) and the 11th-most FanDuel points per game (17.7) to perimeter wideouts since Week 11.
Emeka Egbuka‘s route participation rate plummeted to 55% in Week 15, and he was no longer the alpha in the wide receiver room. The cratering of his route participation rate and target competition present the rookie with a low floor. However, Egbuka can benefit from the offense operating more efficiently and scoring. Additionally, he had a 14.9-yard aDOT, 104 air yards, a 29.5% air yards share, 20.6% target share and 0.32 TPRR last week, leading to four receptions, 64 receiving yards and 2.91 Y/RR. Egbuka also had a 63.6% wide alignment rate and a 36.4% slot alignment rate. Thus, he’ll have the same favorable matchup on the outside as Evans and a more beneficial matchup when he’s in the slot.
Carolina has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (13.9) and the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (11.2) to slot wideouts since Week 11. Moreover, while the Panthers have allowed the 17th-most yards per target (7.73) to perimeter wideouts since Week 11, they’ve coughed up the third-most yards per target (10.47) to ones aligned in the slot.
Chris Godwin‘s underlying data wasn’t impressive last week. He had only a 3.8-yard aDOT, 15 air yards, a 4.2% air yards share, 11.8% target share, 0.11 TPRR, 19% first-read rate and four targets. However, Godwin paced the wideouts with a 92.5% route participation rate, and one of his four receptions for 20 yards went for a touchdown. Godwin also completed the octopus by converting a two-point try. Finally, Godwin’s 59.5% slot rate exceeded Egbuka’s 36.4% and Evans’ 19.2%.
Core Studs
- Bijan Robinson is projected as the RB2 at DraftKings and the RB1 at FanDuel, with the RB3 value score at the former and the RB1 value score at the latter this week. He’s in an eruption spot this week after trouncing the Bucs for 175 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, 11 targets and eight receptions in Week 15. The Cardinals have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game (33.4) and the second-most FanDuel points per game (30) to running backs since Week 11, and Jawhar Jordan shockingly became Houston’s first 100-yard rusher this season against Arizona last week.
- Michael Wilson‘s DFS value is contingent on Marvin Harrison Jr. missing another game. MHJ logged a limited practice on Wednesday. Wilson would be merely a pay-up-to-be-contrarian GPP option in a game stack if Harrison were to suit up this week. However, Wilson is an elite pick in all game types if the second-year wideout is sidelined again. In four games without MHJ this year, Wilson has ripped off a 55.2% air yards share, 31.4% target share, 0.35 TPRR, 42.2% first-read rate, 10.25 receptions per game, 124.8 receiving yards per game, 2.94 Y/RR, three touchdowns, 28 DraftKings points per game, 22.9 FanDuel points per game and 27.3 expected fantasy points per game.
- James Cook is in a blow-up spot. The Bills are 10.0-point favorites, and Cleveland’s defense has fallen apart against running backs. According to Pro Football Reference, Cook has tallied 111 rushing yards per game, 5.31 yards per carry, nine rushing touchdowns, 2.3 receptions per game, 23.4 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns in Buffalo’s 10 wins this year. In the past two weeks without Maliek Collins, the Browns have coughed up the sixth-most DraftKings points per game (31.9), the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (31.1), 311 rushing yards (155.5 per game), 5.02 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, three receptions (1.5 per game) and 26 receiving yards (13 per game) to running backs. Cook is projected as the RB4 at both DFS providers, with the RB1 value score at DraftKings and the RB2 value score at FanDuel.
Value Plays/Punts
- According to StatHead, Jacoby Brissett set season highs for DraftKings points (21.6) scored by a quarterback and FanDuel points (21.6) scored by one against the Texans this year. Nevertheless, Brissett’s salary dropped by another $200 at DraftKings. The salary dip is baffling, but gamers shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth. The veteran signal-caller has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in all of his starts, and he’s the QB4 at both providers, with the QB2 value score at DraftKings and a tie for the QB2 value score at FanDuel. Brissett should carve up a defense that’s permitted the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (21.9) and the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (21.7) to quarterbacks since Week 11.
- Jalen Coker is in a groove after a slow start in his return from the injured reserve (IR). In the second-year pro’s last four games, he’s had a 77% route participation rate, 24.7% air yards share, 14.4% target share, 0.16 TPRR, 21.2% first-read rate, 3.75 receptions per game, 54.5 receiving yards per game, 2.04 Y/RR, two touchdowns, 13.2 DraftKings points per game and 11.1 FanDuel points per game. Coker had a 62.6% slot rate in those games, and the Bucs have allowed the 13th-most DraftKings points per game (11.6), the 14th-most FanDuel points per game (9.4) and the eighth-most yards per target (9.64) to wide receivers aligned in the slot since Week 11.
- The Titans are 3.0-point underdogs against the visiting Chiefs, but Kansas City is without Patrick Mahomes, leaving Gardner Minshew to make his first start of the season on the road. He might also be without Rashee Rice, who is in the NFL’s concussion protocol after reporting symptoms on Monday and opening up with a missed practice on Wednesday. In 13 starts in 2023, Minshew threw nine interceptions, lost five fumbles and took 34 sacks. Minshew should provide Tennessee’s defense with ample DFS scoring opportunities, and they’re a steal at only $2,500 on DraftKings and the minimum $3,000 salary at FanDuel.
Week 16 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Jalen Coker: 37.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Coker has surpassed 37.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games, averaging 54.5 receiving yards per game in that stretch. Per StatHead, 22 wide receivers have eclipsed 37.5 receiving yards against the Bucs this season. We project Coker to have 45.1 receiving yards against Tampa Bay.
James Cook: 85.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
Cook has balled out in wins. He’s cleared 85.5 rushing yards in seven of Buffalo’s victories this year. Cook should surpass that threshold this week against a crumbling run defense, and we project him to have 90.6 rushing yards against the Browns this week.
Dalton Kincaid: 34.5 Receiving Yards – Lower
Dalton Kincaid is having an exceptionally efficient season, and he’s arguably Buffalo’s best pass-catching weapon. Unfortunately, the third-year pro has also navigated injuries, and a knee injury now ails him. Kincaid missed time with a hamstring injury, but a knee issue first popped up on the injury report in Week 14.
Kincaid had knee injuries last year, and he was spotted wearing a brace in practice in preparation for Week 14. In two games since the knee injury emerged, Kincaid has had only a 42% route participation rate, 7.6-yard aDOT, 20.1% air yards share, 16.1% target share, 0.31 TPRR, seven receptions (3.5 per game) and 75 receiving yards (37.5 per game). Kincaid made some impactful plays, but his diminished route participation rate was noteworthy since the Bills were in a trailing game script against the Bengals and Patriots.
Will the Bills curb his playing time more this week if they’re handling business as a 10.0-point favorite? Will they need to air it out much against a run defense that’s in dreadful form without Collins plugging up the middle of the defensive line? Kincaid’s reduced playing time and a likely unfavorable game script for him this week enhance the likelihood that he falls short of 34.5 receiving yards.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
