This week’s NFL DFS main slate has only nine games because of the tripleheader on Christmas, two more games on Saturday and the primetime games. Still, there are a few intriguing games to stack. The first features significant offensive firepower and a decided lack of defense. The second is a star-studded contest between playoff teams, albeit with a total that might dissuade gamers from turning it into a chalky stack. The studs and values/punts feature two players from the suggested game stacks, leaving four others to analyze as outstanding DFS picks.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 17
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Bengals vs. Cardinals
Spread/Total: CIN -7.0/53.5 Points
The game’s total of 53.5 points paints the correct picture for expectations for this contest. Both defenses are pitiful. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bengals have the worst scoring defense (30.5 points per game allowed), and the Cardinals have the fourth-worst scoring defense (27.6 points per game allowed). Both offenses are also pass-happy. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Cardinals are second in pass rate over expectations (7.4% PROE), and the Bengals are sixth in PROE (4.3%) this season.
Joe Burrow and Jacoby Brissett both have favorable matchups. The Cardinals have allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points per game (20.9) and the eighth-most FanDuel points per game (20.5) to quarterbacks since Week 12, and the Bengals have allowed the 10th-most DraftKings points per game (18.9) and the 12th-most FanDuel points per game (18.5) to them during that period.
Additionally, in that stretch, Burrow was sixth in passing yards per game (269.8), tied for fourth in passing touchdowns (10), sixth in DraftKings points per game (21) and sixth in FanDuel points per game (21). Meanwhile, Brissett was seventh in passing yards per game (268.2), seventh in passing touchdowns (nine), 12th in DraftKings points per game (19.1) and tied for 11th in FanDuel points per game (19.1). The DFS lineup optimizer projects Burrow as the QB2 at both DFS providers, with the QB2 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 salary) at DraftKings and the QB3 value score at FanDuel. Brissett is projected as the QB6, with the QB3 value score at DraftKings and the QB5 value score at FanDuel. Both signal-callers are outstanding GPP picks, and neither is a bad cash games selection.
Chase Brown also has a plus matchup. The Cardinals are tied for the most DraftKings points per game allowed (33.5) and have allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game (29.8) to running backs since Week 12. Since Burrow returned in Week 13, Brown has had the following stats.
- 52 rush attempts (13 per game)
- 220 rushing yards (55 per game)
- 4.23 yards per carry
- 53.8% success rate
- 42.3% stuff rate
- Two rushing touchdowns
- 53.9% route participation rate
- 14.3% target share
- 0.25 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 11.2% first-read rate
- 22 targets (5.5 per game)
- 21 receptions (5.3 per game)
- 127 receiving yards (31.8 per game)
- 22.9 DraftKings points per game
- 20.3 FanDuel points per game
Brown is an outstanding one-off, a bring-back from the Cardinals or a double-stacking option with Burrow because of his receiving ability. Brown is projected as the RB4, with the RB3 value score at DraftKings and the RB1 value score at FanDuel.
Elijah Higgins is an intriguing punt from this contest. Arizona’s receiving corps is dreadful beyond Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. Higgins was a college wide receiver, but he’s an actual tight end and not a fugazi one. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Higgins has aligned inline at a higher rate (46.4%) than anywhere else this season. He’s also aligned in the backfield 2.6% of the time, wide 10.7% of the time and in the slot 40.3% of the time.
Higgins secured all seven of his targets for 91 receiving yards last week. Still, this suggestion isn’t point chasing. Instead, Higgins had a rock-solid 75.8% route participation rate in Week 16.
He has a mouthwatering matchup this week. The Bengals have coughed up a league-high 22.3 DraftKings points per game and 18.7 FanDuel points per game to tight ends this year. Cincinnati isn’t tightening up its defense against the position, either. Instead, they’ve allowed 23.1 DraftKings points per game and 18.8 FanDuel points per game to tight ends since Week 12.
The top tight ends on Cincinnati’s opponents haven’t been the only ones to flame the Bengals, either. According to StatHead, Isaiah Likely had five receptions for 95 yards, Dawson Knox had six receptions for 93 yards and Greg Dulcich had three receptions for 46 yards against the Bengals in Week 13, Week 14 and Week 16, respectively. In addition, it’s debatable who Pittsburgh’s first, second and third tight ends are, but in Week 7, Pat Freiermuth had five receptions for 111 yards and two touchdowns, Darnell Washington had four receptions for 67 yards and Jonnu Smith had three receptions for 28 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals.
Game: Bills vs. Eagles
Spread/Total: BUF -1.5/43.5 Points
The Bills and Eagles don’t have a sky-high game total, and the weather forecast warrants monitoring. Nevertheless, this game features high-upside quarterbacks and running backs, the Eagles have top-shelf wideouts and the Bills have viable mid-range-salaried stacking options with Josh Allen. Additionally, Allen has smashed at home. According to StatHead, Allen has scored 226.4 DraftKings points (32.3 per game) and 219.4 FanDuel points (31.3 per game) in seven home games this year, scoring at least 21.4 DraftKings points and 20.4 FanDuel points in each of those contests, with a median of 28.8 DraftKings points and 28.8 FanDuel points in home starts this season.
The Eagles have a supremely talented defense. It’s not an optimal matchup for Allen. Nonetheless, Allen is projected as the QB1 this week, with the QB1 value score at both DFS outlets. He’s also shredded Vic Fangio’s defenses with the Broncos and Dolphins.
Allen has averaged 305.8 passing yards per game, 2.5 passing touchdowns per game, 43.3 rushing yards per game and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game against Fangio’s defenses in four meetings. Fangio has more talent to work with on the Eagles than he had at his previous stops, but Allen’s previous success paints the picture of a DFS slate-breaking ceiling worth chasing in GPPs.
Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid have challenging matchups, but they’re Buffalo’s best pass-catching weapons. They’re also Buffalo’s best options against man and single-high coverage. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Bills have faced man coverage and single-high coverage at league-high rates of 32.7% and 64.7%, respectively. Philadelphia is also mid-pack in man coverage rate (27%) and single-high coverage (51.2%), ranking 13th and 16th.
Shakir has 0.22 TPPR and 1.73 yards per route run (Y/RR) on 123 routes against man and 0.26 TPRR and 2.19 Y/RR on 234 routes against single-high coverage. Kincaid has 0.25 TPRR and 2.25 Y/RR on 64 routes against man and 0.24 TPRR and 2.75 Y/RR on 100 routes versus single-high coverage. Kincaid and Shakir are first and second on the team in yards per route run against single-high coverage, and they’re second and third in yards per route run versus man coverage, trailing Jackson Hawes‘ 3.71 Y/RR on only 21 routes against man.
Having highlighted Shakir and Kincaid as single- or double-stacking options with Allen, it’s also worth noting that Allen can be used unstacked as part of a game stack with the Eagles. It wouldn’t be unusual for Allen to rush for a touchdown or two and complete a touchdown or two to ancillary options in the passing attack, consolidating the scoring for himself.
James Cook leads the NFL in rushing yards. He’s averaging a league-leading 102.1 rushing yards per game with 12 rushing touchdowns. Among 54 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts this year, Cook is second in yards per carry (5.34), fifth in yards before contact per attempt (2.88), tied for 12th in yards after contact per attempt (2.46), tied for ninth in explosive run rate (5.6%), eighth in success rate (57.1%) and tied for ninth in stuff rate (39.7%). Cook is playing at an elite level, pairing a massive workload with superb efficiency.
Cook has also chipped in through the air after a slow start to the season. Since Buffalo’s Week 7 bye, he’s recorded 2.4 targets per game, 20 receptions (2.2 per game), 199 receiving yards (22.1 per game) and two receiving touchdowns. Cook is a well-rounded running back. Still, he’d benefit from the favored Bills winning, as he’s excelled in victories this year. In 11 wins, Cook has scored 271.8 DraftKings points (24.7 per game) and 233.8 FanDuel points (21.3 per game). Cook is projected as the RB2 at DraftKings and the RB1 at FanDuel this week.
Interestingly, Cook might be just the second-most interesting running back in this game. Saquon Barkley hasn’t had a banner year after reaching 2,000 rushing yards last season. He’s in a late-season groove and will likely have Lane Johnson back to pave rushing lanes for him this week. In the previous three weeks, Barkley has ripped off 122, 92 and 132 scrimmage yards, scoring a touchdown in each of those games, and earning the 100-yard bonus as a runner in two of those contests.
Barkley also has a sweet matchup. Since Week 12, the Bills have allowed the 11th-most DraftKings points per game (25), the 12th-most FanDuel points per game (22.5) and 4.86 yards per carry to running backs. Barkley is projected as the RB3 with the RB2 value score at DraftKings and the RB2 with the RB5 value score at FanDuel. Additionally, since both Cook and Barkley have home-run ability and don’t need a positive game script to feast, they can be used together as a skinny stack. It’s often unwise to use running backs from the same game against one another on a full-sized slate, but it’s perfectly reasonable to make an exception in this matchup.
Since Week 12, quarterbacks opposing the Bills have had the second-fewest dropbacks per game (10.6) under pressure. On 291 unpressured dropbacks this year, Jalen Hurts has the following stats.
- 70.6% completion rate
- 7.48 yards per attempt
- 8.48 adjusted net yards per pass attempt
- 19 passing touchdowns
- Two interceptions
- 111.1 Quarterback Rating
- 0.74 DraftKings points per dropback
- 0.73 FanDuel points per dropback
Hurts can thrive as a passer if the Bills can’t pressure him. The Bills have also struggled to control quarterbacks as runners. Per Pro Football Reference, Buffalo is tied for the third-most rushing yards allowed per game (23.7) to quarterbacks. Six quarterbacks have had at least 39 rushing yards against the Bills in a game this season. Hurts is also a threat to punch in short-yardage touchdowns on the tush push. His ceiling is worthy of mixing into GPP lineups.
Fortunately, Hurts’ stacking partners are streamlined, and given Buffalo’s stinginess against tight ends, it’s even tighter than usual. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the only options to single- or double-stack with Hurts.
Brown has a sizable recent performance edge over Smith. The former has scored 22 DraftKings points per game and 18.5 FanDuel points per game in Philadelphia’s previous five games, and the latter has scored just 11.7 DraftKings points per game and 9.4 FanDuel points per game in that period.
Smith’s case for usage with Brown or instead of him is centered on Buffalo’s coverage tendencies. The Bills have played two-high coverage at the second-highest rate (58.5%) this year. Meanwhile, Brown has 0.22 TPRR and 1.62 Y/RR on 230 routes against two-high coverage this season, and Smith has 0.23 TPRR and 1.99 Y/RR on 243 routes against it. Brown and Smith don’t project well from a points-per-dollar standpoint, but they have high ceilings, and if this game shoots out, there’s a path to each reaching their ceiling.
Core Studs
- Trey McBride has the dream matchup for tight ends, and he’s the NFL’s best tight end. In fact, McBride’s numbers stack up well among wideouts, too. Among 102 wide receivers and tight ends with at least 250 routes this year, McBride is 40th in air yards share (25.4%), 12th in target share (24.8%), tied for 20th in targets per route run (0.24 TPRR), tied for fourth in targets per game (9.6), third in receptions (109), ninth in receiving yards per game (73.2) and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (10). Unsurprisingly, McBride is projected as the TE1 this week, but his excellence relative to all pass-catching weapons makes building double-TE lineups with him viable in all game types.
- Ja’Marr Chase is projected as the WR2 at DraftKings and the WR1 at FanDuel, with the WR2 value score at DraftKings and the WR1 value score at FanDuel. In the three games played with Burrow since he returned from the injured reserve (IR), Chase has logged a 35.4% air yards share, 31.2% target share, 0.30 TPRR, 12 targets per game, 31 receptions (7.8 per game), 395 receiving yards (98.8 per game), 2.50 Y/RR, 18.6 DraftKings points per game, 14.7 FanDuel points per game and 19.8 expected fantasy points per game.
- Ashton Jeanty had the best game of his rookie season in Week 16, trouncing the Texans for 128 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, one reception, 60 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. He’s unlikely to duplicate that effort, but the Giants are a Charmin-soft matchup, awarding him an opportunity for another eruption. The G-Men have permitted the fourth-most DraftKings points per game (31), the fourth-most FanDuel points per game (27.7), 135 rushing yards per game, 5.68 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 6.3 receptions per game, 40.3 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 12. Among 51 running backs with at least 50 attempts not contacted behind the line of scrimmage, Jeanty is second in yards after contact per attempt (3.40). Assuming the Raiders can give him some room to work with against Big Blue’s lousy run defense, Jeanty can take advantage of it. Jeanty is projected as the RB6 at both DFS providers, with the RB1 value score at DraftKings and the RB2 value score at FanDuel.
Value Plays/Punts
- Taysom Hill had an absurd role for the Saints last week. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he played three snaps at quarterback, 16 in the backfield, two inline, seven in the slot and six aligned wide. Hill ran the ball 12 times for 48 yards, secured four receptions for 36 yards on six targets and threw a 38-yard touchdown pass. There’s always a risk of getting rug pulled on Hill’s robust usage. Nevertheless, that risk is worth taking at DraftKings, where his salary is only $200 above the minimum, and even eating a zero isn’t a disaster. Hill is projected as the TE8 with the TE1 value score at DraftKings this week. He’s not a viable option at FanDuel, though. Instead, Juwan Johnson is an appealing punt at tight end on FanDuel, where he sports a $5,200 salary and has the TE1 value score.
- Kyle Williams isn’t a usable DFS punt if Kayshon Boutte clears the NFL’s concussion protocol and DeMario Douglas plays through his hamstring injury. If either player is out, Williams is a sweet GPP choice. If both are out, Williams is a desirable punt in all game types. On only a 17.4% route participation rate in New England’s last four games, Williams has recorded 0.19 TPRR, four receptions, 97 receiving yards, 3.59 Y/RR and two touchdown grabs. He’s speedy and meshes perfectly with Drake Maye‘s downfield-passing prowess.
- The Saints have cut loose Tyler Shough, and he’s delivered for them and for DFS gamers. New Orleans is 10th in pass rate over expectations (2.0% PROE) since Week 12, which includes a rainy game in Tampa Bay in Week 14. Without that contest in the sample, they had a 4.8% PROE. Since Week 12, Shough is 14th in DraftKings points per game (18.5) and 14th in FanDuel points per game (18.1). He has a cushy matchup against the Titans this week. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (22.6) and the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (22.4) to quarterbacks since Week 12. As a result, Shough is projected as the QB8 at both DFS outlets, with the QB3 value score at DraftKings and the QB6 value score at FanDuel. Shough is my suggested quarterback in cash games and a superb choice in GPPs as well.
Week 17 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Kenneth Walker: 49.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
Kenneth Walker hasn’t been consistent this year. Regardless, he’s averaged 58.6 rushing yards per game, with a median of 66 this season. Walker has cleared 49.5 rushing yards nine times, including exploding for 100 yards against the Rams last week.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Walker has tallied 526 yards at 5.01 yards per carry on 105 zone runs this year. Conversely, the Panthers have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game (59.4) and the seventh-most yards per carry (4.52) on 197 zone runs this season. We project Walker to have 68.2 rushing yards against the Panthers this week.
Jonathan Taylor: 74.5 Rushing Yards – Lower
Jonathan Taylor is in an efficiency funk. He’s averaged 3.5 yards per carry or fewer in three straight games, and averaged 3.6 or fewer in four of his last five. Taylor has struggled mightily as a runner in Philip Rivers‘ two starts this year. In those games, he’s carried the ball 41 times for 133 yards (66.5 per game), 3.24 yards per carry, with zero explosive runs, a 36.6% success rate and 51.2% stuff rate.
Taylor has carried the ball 33 times with Rivers aligned in shotgun, gaining 110 yards at 3.33 yards per carry. Rivers doesn’t provide any threat of keeping the ball as a runner out of shotgun, which doesn’t help Taylor’s cause as a runner.
He has a putrid matchup this week. The Jaguars have faced the second-highest pass rate over expectations (5.3% PROE) this year and the eighth-highest (3.1%) since Week 12. They also allowed only 70 rushing yards per game and 4.17 yards per carry to running backs since Week 12. Finally, the Colts are 6.5-point underdogs and will probably be in a negative game script, depressing Taylor’s rushing potential. He should rush for fewer than 74.5 rushing yards this week.
Jalen Hurts: 30.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
Hurts has averaged 27.7 rushing yards per game, under his line for rushing yards. Yet, he’s gone over 30.5 rushing yards in eight of 15 games, with a median of 31 this season.
The Bills have struggled with mobile and semi-mobile quarterbacks this year, allowing 70 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson, 49 to Justin Fields, 49 to Spencer Rattler, 49 to Shedeur Sanders, 43 to Maye and 39 to Baker Mayfield. Hurts should give them trouble as a runner, and we project him to have 34.3 rushing yards against the Bills.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
