The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -2.5, O/U 49.5
• Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Dak Prescott
• Javonte Williams
• CeeDee Lamb
• George Pickens

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Jake Ferguson is the TE8 in fantasy points per game with a 17.5% target share, 40.7 receiving yards per game, 1.34 yards per route run, and a 19.7% first-read share. Ferguson ranks second in red zone targets among tight ends while also kicking in four deep targets. Ferguson should provide solid TE1 production this week. Since Week 10, the Bolts have allowed the fifth-most yards per target and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Over the last two games, Herbert has had a sizable decline from the version that we have seen the rest of the season. It’s understandable, but unfortunate. He has finished as the QB17 and QB27 in weekly scoring. That QB17 finish was also massively influenced by his 66 rushing yards, which we saw last week, and isn’t sustainable (in Week 15, he had zero rushing yards). Since Week 14, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Herbert has ranked 25th in passing yards per game, 25th in yards per attempt, 29th in catchable target rate, and 29th in fantasy points per dropback. Dallas’s horrible pass defense could help to elevate Herbert back to QB1 status this week, but it’s better to view him as a QB2 with upside. Since Week 11, Dallas has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the ninth-most yards per attempt, and the tenth-highest CPOE. During that span, they have also had the ninth-best pressure rate, which could also help to tamp down Herbert’s stats if the Chargers’ battered offensive line allows the pass rush to get home regularly.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Keenan Allen is the WR35 in fantasy points per game, but he hasn’t finished inside the top-36 in weekly scoring among wide receivers since Week 7. That was also the last time that Allen surpassed 55 receiving yards in a game. Since Week 8, Allen has had an 18% target share with 35 receiving yards per game, 1.58 yards per route run, and a 23.1% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had only two red zone targets and four deep targets. Maybe the plus matchup this week against Dallas helps to elevate Allen’s stat line, but this Chargers offense has also skewed run-heavy to protect Justin Herbert, and I don’t see that changing this week. Allen is just another middling flex play this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

Ladd McConkey might be the WR16 in fantasy points per game, but his fantasy stock has been in freefall with the Chargers’ passing attack tanking over the last few games. Since Week 9, McConkey has had only two top 36 weekly finishes and one game in which he surpassed 60 receiving yards. Since Week 9, he has had a 17.7% target share with 41.2 receiving yards per game with 1.47 yards per route run and a 13.9% first-read share. In those six games, he has had four red zone targets and five deep targets. McConkey has become a risky flex play with a good matchup this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Oronde Gadsden II (TE)

Last week, Gadsden saw his route share dip to 54.5% while he still had a 17.2% target share with 61 receiving yards (3.39 yards per route run), and a 13.6% first-read share. Over the last two games, Gadsden has finished as the TE50 and TE15 in weekly scoring with a 16.4% target share, 34 receiving yards per game, 1.45 yards per route run, an 11.4% first-read share, and two deep targets (zero red zone targets). Gadsden is just a middling streaming option at tight end this week with a wide range of outcomes. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the 13th-highest yards per target and ranked 18th in fantasy points per game against tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Omarion Hampton (RB)

Since his return, Hampton has had a 33.8% snap rate, a 17.6% route share, and only a 5.5% target share. He has averaged 15.5 touches and 66 total yards as the Bolts’ goal-line back. In those two games, Hampton has had six red zone rushing attempts versus Kimani Vidal‘s one. Hampton has looked like a shell of himself, though, with an 11% missed tackle rate and 1.25 yards after contact per attempt. He’s a middling flex play again this week. Since Week 11, Dallas’s run defense has been beastly, giving up the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-fewest yards after contact per attempt, the ninth-fewest yards before contact per attempt, and the 13th-lowest rushing success rate.

Kimani Vidal (RB)

Over the last two weeks, Kimani Vidal has been a decent flex play as the Chargers’ passing-down back. In those two weeks, Vidal has averaged 14 touches and 76 total yards while compiling a 66.9% snap rate, a 56.8% route share, and a 7.3% target share. Vidal has only one red zone rushing attempt in that span, so the odds of him scoring a touchdown are slim. Overall, among 58 qualifying backs, Vidal ranks 25th in explosive run rate and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 11, Dallas’s run defense has been beastly, giving up the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-fewest yards after contact per attempt, the ninth-fewest yards before contact per attempt, and the 13th-lowest rushing success rate. Vidal is an uninspiring volume-based flex again this week.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

Quentin Johnston missed last week’s game with a groin injury. He opened this week with a limited practice. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.

LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND

New York Jets vs. New Orleans Saints

• NO -4.5, O/U 40.5
• New York Jets vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Chris Olave

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tyler Shough (QB)

Since Week 9, Tyler Shough has been the QB16 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings. During that stretch, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Shough has ranked 13th in yards per attempt, fifth in catchable target rate, tenth in hero throw rate, and 13th in passing yards per game. Across his last four games, he has had at least 18 rushing yards in each game while also sporting two rushing touchdowns. Shough could post another QB1 stat line this week. Since Week 11, New York has allowed the eighth-most yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE.

Breece Hall (RB)

Breece Hall remains a volume-driven RB2. Hall is the RB21 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.5 touches and 87.4 total yards. Among 43 qualifying backs, Hall ranks fifth in explosive run rate and 16th in missed tackle rate. This week, he faces a Saints run defense that, since Week 11, has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest explosive run rate, and the 14th-most yards before contact per attempt.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

Since Week 9, Juwan Johnson has been the TE13 in fantasy points per game with a 16.4% target share, 46 receiving yards per game, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 19% first-read share. In those six games, Johnson has had three red zone targets, two touchdowns, and one deep target. Johnson is a borderline TE1 again this week. Since Week 10, New York has ranked 16th in receiving yards per game and allowed the 12th-highest yards per target to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

N/A

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Brady Cook (QB)

Last week, Brady Cook completed 66.7% of his passes with 176 passing yards, three interceptions (one touchdown), and 39 rushing yards as the QB26 for the week. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 47th in highly accurate throw rate, 46th in hero throw rate, and 47th in fantasy points per dropback. Cook is headed for another tough week against an improved Saints’ pass defense. Since Week 11, New Orleans has allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the second-fewest passing yards per game, the ninth-lowest CPOE, and the lowest success rate per dropback.

Adonai Mitchell (WR)

Since Week 12, Mitchell has had two top 20 weekly finishes at wide receiver in weekly scoring, including last week’s game with Brady Cook (WR14). Since Week 12, Mitchell has had a 26.6% target share with 56.5 receiving yards per game, 1.73 yards per route run, and a 30% first-read share. In those four games, Mitchell has had six red zone targets and nine deep targets. Mitchell is a low-end volume-based flex play with a tough matchup. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the 14th-fewest PPR points per target and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

John Metchie (WR)

Since Week 12, John Metchie had one top 36 weekly wide receiver finish (WR11) while seeing a 21.9% target share and 27.8% first-read share while producing 35.8 receiving yards per game and 1.09 yards per route run. In those four games, Metchie has had four red zone targets and zero deep targets. Metchie is best left on the bench this week. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the 14th-fewest PPR points per target and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Alvin Kamara (RB)

Alvin Kamara opened this week with another DNP (knee/ankle). I think he likely will miss this week’s game, but the Saints are leaving the light on for him with Devin Neal already ruled out.

Audric Estime (RB)

Audric Estime could be the Saints’ lead back this week if Alvin Kamara doesn’t return. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.

LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

• TB -3, O/U 45.5
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bucky Irving
• Mike Evans

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Mike Evans returns to the lineup, and Baker Mayfield sports his first 20-point fantasy outing since Week 10. A coincidence? I think not. Mayfield didn’t look like the same quarterback that came screaming out of the gate to begin the 2025 season, but it was a better showing than we have had from Mayfield in the last few weeks. Mayfield is still providing some rushing equity with at least 27 rushing yards in three of his last five games. Among 44 qualifying passers this season, he is 21st in passing yards per game, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, 28th in catchable target rate, and 11th in hero throw rate. Mayfield could post a QB1 stat line this week. Since Week 11, Carolina has allowed the 11th-most yards per attempt, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback.

Tetairoa McMillan (WR)

Tetairoa McMillan is the WR22 in fantasy points per game with a 23.1% target share, 60.8 receiving yards per game, 1.96 yards per route run, and a 27.4% first-read share. McMillan leads the team with 14 red zone targets and 16 deep targets. Bryce Young‘s weekly volatility has bled over to McMillan all year. McMillan has three top 13 wide receiver weekly finishes as well as four games outside the top 40 wide receivers for the week. McMillan is more likely to boom this week. Since Week 10, the Bucs have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Emeka Egbuka (WR)

Emeka Egbuka is the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 25.1% target share, 62.1 receiving yards per game, 1.98 yards per route run, and a 31% first-read share. Egbuka leads the team with 13 red zone targets and 19 deep targets. Last week, in the first game with Egbuka, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin all in the lineup, Egbuka ranked second on the team with a 20.6% target share and 23.8% first-read share while finishing with two deep targets and 64 receiving yards as the WR38 for the week. Egbuka is a solid WR2 this week against a Carolina secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Chris Godwin (WR)

Chris Godwin has been a WR2/3 since Week 13 with weekly finishes as the WR33, WR27, and WR24. In those three games, he has had a 17.4% target share, 51 receiving yards per game, 1.80 yards per route run, three red zone targets, one deep target, and a 21.1% first-read share. Last week, in the first game with Egbuka, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin all in the lineup, Godwin had an 11.8% target share (third on the team) with 20 receiving yards, a score, one red zone target and a 19% first-read share. Godwin remains a solid WR2/3 against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers while also ranking 15th in passer rating when targeted.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Bryce Young (QB)

Bryce Young is the QB25 in fantasy points per game with four QB1 weekly outings this season, including two in his last four games. Young has been an impossible player to predict this season, with these random spike week games when you least expect it, and duds when we chase the previous performances. Young is lined up well again this week to have a strong game, but who knows if that will actually happen. Among 44 qualifying passers, Young ranks 27th in passing yards per game, 34th in yards per attempt, 35th in highly accurate throw rate, and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. This week, he faces a Bucs pass defense that, since Week 11, has been one of the worst in the league, giving up the third-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-highest CPOE, and the fourth-highest success rate per dropback.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

The Carolina backfield has been a back-and-forth situation over the last two games, with Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard trading lead back weeks. Since Week 13, Dowdle has had a 50.8% snap rate with a 32.7% route share and 9.1% target share. In those two games, Dowdle had two red zone rushing attempts while averaging 18.5 touches and 66.5 total yards. Overall, this season, among 48 qualifying backs, Dowdle ranks 15th in explosive run rate and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. He’s in the RB2/3 conversation this week against a Bucs’ run defense that, since Week 11, has allowed the tenth-highest missed tackle rate and the ninth-most yards before contact per attempt while also sitting at 18th in explosive run rate.

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

The Carolina backfield has been a week-to-week changing of the guard over the last two games. Since Week 13, Hubbard has had a 50.8% snap share with a 49.1% route share and 6.8% target share. In those two games, Hubbard had one red zone rushing attempt while averaging 14 touches and 81 total yards. Hubbard remains in the RB2/3 conversation this week with a decent matchup against a declining Bucs run defense. Since Week 11, Tampa Bay has allowed the tenth-highest missed tackle rate and the ninth-most yards before contact per attempt, while also sitting at 18th in explosive run rate.

Jalen Coker (WR)

Since Week 10, Coker has had three top 24 weekly scoring finishes among wide receivers (WR24, WR15, WR24). Since Week 10, Coker has had a 14% target share with 47.8 receiving yards per game, 1.85 yards per route run, and a 21.3% first-read share. In those five games, he has only one red zone target and three deep targets. Coker is a solid flex play that could pay off in a big way this week if Bryce Young has another boom game. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

N/A

LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants

• MIN -3, O/U 43.5
• Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

J.J. McCarthy (QB)

J.J. McCarthy BABY! Over the last two weeks, he has looked like the quarterback that I know he can be as the QB9 and QB6 in weekly scoring. Since Week 14, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, McCarthy has ranked fifth in yards per attempt, 12th in catchable target rate, first in hero throw rate, and third in fantasy points per dropback. He has been COOKIN’! McCarthy can continue the hot streak this week. Since Week 11, the Giants have allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passer rating, the highest CPOE, and the 14th-highest success rate per dropback.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

In his last two full games played, Tracy has been the Giants’ workhorse with a 73.6% snap rate, a 60.2% route share, and a 9.5% target share while averaging 20.5 touches and 113.5 total yards. He finished as the RB12 and RB5 in weekly PPR scoring. Tracy has had a 10% missed tackle rate and 2.09 yards after contact per attempt this season. He’s a pure volume play as a strong RB2 who could easily be an RB1 again this week. Since Week 11, Minnesota has allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest rushing success rate, and the second-most yards after contact per attempt.

Aaron Jones (RB)

Aaron Jones is a solid RB2 this week. Since Week 14, he has averaged 14.5 touches and 70.5 total yards with a 51.3% snap rate and 45.5% route share. Jones has been the backfield leader, but he hasn’t been the team’s goal line back with only two red zone totes over the last two games (Mason, six). Jones could easily break a long run against the Giants and pay off, though. Since Week 11, the Giants have remained one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, giving up the most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the most yards after contact per attempt.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Wan’Dale Robinson is quietly having a monstrous season as the WR15 in fantasy points per game on pace for 95 receptions and 1,071 receiving yards. Since Week 4, in Jaxson Dart‘s starts, Robinson has had a 25.9% target share with 51.9 receiving yards per game, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 28.3% first-read share. In those nine games, Robinson has had seven red zone targets and eight deep targets. Robinson should lead the way for the Giants’ passing attack again this week, but it will be a tough matchup. Since Week 10, Minnesota has allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target and the tenth-lowest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.

Justin Jefferson (WR)

Last week, Justin Jefferson should have had two touchdowns, which would have quieted the narrative that he and JJ McCarthy’s connection is worrisome at best. One score was called back by penalty, and the other sailed through Jefferson’s hands. In the eight games Jefferson has played with McCarthy this season, he has two top 24 finishes in weekly scoring with a 29.1% target share, 43.9 receiving yards per game, 1.55 yards per route run, and a 34.7% first-read share. In those games, Jefferson has also had 11 red zone targets and ten deep targets. I’m still rolling out Jefferson there this week in a great spot. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jaxson Dart (QB)

Since Week 4, the only quarterback with more fantasy points per game than Jaxson Dart is Josh Allen. Since Week 4, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Dart has ranked 27th in yards per attempt, 23rd in highly accurate throw rate, 18th in catchable target rate, and third in hero throw rate. Since Week 4, he has averaged 7.6 rushing attempts and 44.4 rushing yards with seven rushing scores. Dart will need all of the rushing equity he can muster against a strong Vikings’ pass defense. Since Week 11, Minnesota hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown while also giving up the fourth-fewest passing yards per game, the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, and the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback.

Jordan Mason (RB)

Over the last two games, Jordan Mason has been the team’s early down thumper and goal line back, averaging 10.5 carries and 40.5 rushing yards with a 31.9% snap rate. He has six red zone rushing attempts during those games versus Aaron Jones‘ two. Mason is a strong touchdown-dependent flex play this week. If Minnesota builds a strong lead, we could see him creep into the 13-15 carry range (or higher). Since Week 11, the Giants have remained one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, giving up the most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the most yards after contact per attempt.

Jordan Addison (WR)

In Jordan Addison‘s six games with JJ McCarthy under center, he has had two top 36 weekly finishes (WR31, WR29) with a 16.4% target share, 38.5 receiving yards per game, 1.43 yards per route run, and a 21.9% first-read share. In that sample, Addison has had two red zone targets and nine deep targets. He’s a decent flex play again this week with a nice matchup. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

T.J. Hockenson (TE)

Last week was T.J. Hockenson’s first TE1 weekly finish of the season with JJ McCarthy under center (TE12). In those eight games, Hockenson has had a 14.6% target share with 22.8 receiving yards per game, 1.03 yards per route run, and a 13.6% first-read share. In those eight games, Hockenson has had only three red zone targets and one deep target. Hockenson is on the streaming radar again this week. Since Week 10, the Giants have faced the fewest tight end targets in the NFL, so it’s not surprising that they have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. The interesting fact is that, also during that span, they have allowed the second-most yards per target to tight ends. Hockenson could have a surprising game this week and log another low-end TE1 finish.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Darius Slayton (WR)

Since Week 4, with Jaxson Dart under center, Slayton has had an 18.1% target share with 49.4 receiving yards per game, 1.91 yards per route run, and a 23.2% first-read share. In those seven games, Slayton has had only one red zone target, but he has also seen 12 deep targets (15.3 aDOT). This isn’t the week to look to flex Slayton with his downfield role. Minnesota’s pass defense has improved dramatically against deep passing and with defending perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 9, Minnesota has allowed the 11th-lowest deep completion rate and the fourth-fewest deep passing yards per game. Since Week 10, the Vikings have also given up the 11th-fewest PPR points per target and the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Slayton this week.

Theo Johnson (TE)

Since Week 4, Theo Johnson has been the TE15 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 outings in weekly scoring. In Jaxson Dart‘s starts, Johnson has had a 19.3% target share with 40.7 receiving yards per game, 1.48 yards per route run, and a 22.8% first-read share. In those nine games, Johnson has had five touchdowns, seven red zone targets, and four deep targets. Johnson is a low-end streaming tight end option this week. Since Week 10, Minnesota has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest yards per target to tight ends.

LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND