Welcome to Week 17. Known to the initiated as FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK!
In case you’re wondering, yes, the Primer will be here next week as well to help everyone who still has active fantasy leagues and delayed championship weeks. If you’ve made it this far, we only have a little way left to travel. That pot of prize money is in sight. Let’s bring it home.
Welcome to the Week 17 Primer. Enjoy.
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Fantasy Football Primer
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
- DAL -6.5, O/U 50.5
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings
| Dak Prescott | QB | QB1 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | RB1 |
| Malik Davis | RB | RB4 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | WR1 |
| George Pickens | WR | WR1 |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | TBD |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | TE1 |
Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings
| Marcus Mariota | QB | TBD |
| Josh Johnson | QB | TBD |
| Chris Rodriguez | RB | RB3 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | RB4 |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | RB5 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WR2 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WR3/4 |
| John Bates | TE | TE2/3 |
| Ben Sinnott | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Since his return in Week 13, McLaurin has finished as the WR8, WR44, WR19, and WR43 in weekly scoring. He has had a 22.4% target share, 64.8 receiving yards per game, 2.64 yards per route run, and a 29.5% first-read share. In those four games, he has had five red zone targets and five deep targets. McLaurin should lead the way through the air this week. Since Week 13, Dallas has had the fifth-highest rate of single high (59%). Since Week 13, against single high, McLaurin has had a 25.5% target share, 2.47 yards per route run, and a 30.6% first-read share. Since Week 12, Dallas has allowed the most PPR points per target and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Jake Ferguson is the TE8 in fantasy points per game with a 17.1% target share, 39.3 receiving yards per game, 1.31 yards per route run, and a 19% first-read share. Ferguson has amassed a whopping 21 red zone targets this season while also kicking in four deep targets. Ferguson should post another solid TE1 stat line this week. Since Week 10, Washington has allowed the second-most yards per target and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Last week, Chris Rodriguez led the Washington backfield with a 56.9% snap rate, a 40% route share, 16 touches, and 69 total yards (one score). Rodgrieuz finished as the RB18 for the week while seeing 50% of the red zone work for Washington’s backfield. Among 59 qualifying backs, Rodriguez ranks 25th in explosive run rate and first in yards after contact per attempt. Rodriguez is an RB3 again this week with RB2 upside. Since Week 12, Dallas has allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and the highest rushing touchdown rate.
Deebo Samuel hasn’t had double-digit PPR points since Week 13. In his last four games, Samuel has had a 19% target share with 42.3 receiving yards per game, 1.56 yards per route run, and a 24.4% first-read share. During that span, Samuel has had only one deep target and one red zone target. Samuel is a serviceable flex play this week, but I don’t think this is a ceiling game for him. Since Week 13, Dallas has had the fifth-highest rate of single high (59%). Since Week 13, against single high, Samuel has had a 17.6% target share with 1.60 yards per route run and a 22.2% first-read share. Working in Samuel’s favor is the fact that, since Week 12, Dallas has been equally terrible in defending the slot, giving up the fifth-most PPR points per target to the position.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Marcus Mariota‘s status is up in the air for Week 17. Last week, he sustained quad and hand injuries. I’ll update his status later this week, but if he is able to suit up, he’s a QB2 that could easily be a QB1 this week. Mariota has three QB1 finishes this season in weekly scoring. Since Week 12, Dallas has arguably been the worst pass defense in the NFL, giving up the third-most-passing yards per game, the highest yards per attempt, and the second-highest CPOE.
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
- DET -6, O/U 44.5
- Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Lions Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jared Goff | QB | QB1/2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB1 |
| David Montgomery | RB | RB3/4 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | WR1 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR1 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | WR5 |
| Shane Zylstra | TE | TE2/3 |
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | TBD |
| Aaron Jones | RB | RB2 |
| Jordan Mason | RB | TBD |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR2 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | WR3/4 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | WR5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Since Week 14, Jones has been the RB36 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.4 touches and 78 total yards. Jones’ per-touch numbers haven’t been impressive this season, with only an 11% missed tackle rate and a replacement-level 1.68 yards after contact per attempt. Despite those lackluster numbers, Jones should have a productive day in Week 17 against a Detroit run defense that has taken a step back. Since Week 12, Detroit has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest rushing success rate, the tenth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-most yards before contact per attempt.
Justin Jefferson is the WR34 in fantasy points per game with a 28.1% target share, a 39% air-yard share, 61.1 receiving yards per game, 1.91 yards per route run, and a 34.2% first-read share. Jefferson has 16 red zone targets and 20 deep targets this season, which rank eighth and 14th among wide receivers. Jefferson remains a player that has been confounding for fantasy gamers, but someone that you’re likely starting if you have made it this far with him on your roster. The Lions’ secondary has been unable to stop perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 12, Detroit has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Jared Goff continues to hum along as a strong QB1 in fantasy, as the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, Goff ranks third in passing yards per game, seventh in yards per attempt, third in highly accurate throw rate, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Goff could hit a bump in the road this week against a Vikings pass defense that has arguably been the best in the league over the last month or so. Since Week 12, Minnesota has allowed the fewest passing yards per game, the lowest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, and ZERO passing touchdowns. Goff should be considered a borderline QB1 this week, who will have to bring his A game.
Jordan Addison is the WR47 in fantasy points per game with six top-36 weekly finishes this season. Addison has an 18.6% target share with 50.2 receiving yards per game, 1.72 yards per route run, and a 23.1% first-read share. In his 12 games played, Addison has ten red zone targets and 17 deep targets. Addison is a viable flex this week again. Since Week 12, Detroit has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
McCarthy injured his hand last week. He was unable to complete the game and could miss Week 17. I’ll update his status as we get more info. Minnesota could be starting Max Brosmer this week.
David Montgomery‘s snap count has dropped in each of the last four games from 38.1% all the way to 17.6% last week. Last week, he had his lowest touch count in a game this season, with only four carries that he turned into 14 yards. Montgomery is a drop at this point if you need room for another player. He has been phased out of the offense over the last month. Could that change this week? Possibly, but I doubt it.
T.J. Hockenson is the TE25 in fantasy points per game with only two TE1 weekly scoring outings this season. He has surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game only twice this season. Hockenson has a 15.1% target share with 29.2 receiving yards per game, 1.17 yards per route run, and a 13.5% first-read share. Hockenson has had 11 red zone targets and three deep targets, but he has turned this high-leverage usage into only three touchdowns. Hockenson is a fringe streaming option this week that is probably best left on your bench. Since Week 10, Detroit has ranked 15th in yards per target to tight ends while giving up the 13th-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- DEN -12.5, O/U 36.5
- Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings
| Bo Nix | QB | QB1 |
| R.J. Harvey | RB | RB2 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | RB4 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | WR2 |
| Troy Franklin | WR | WR3/4 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | WR4/5 |
| Pat Bryant | WR | TBD |
| Evan Engram | TE | TE2/3 |
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
| Chris Oladokun | QB | QB2 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | RB4 |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | RB3 |
| Brashard Smith | RB | RB5 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | TBD |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | WR4 |
| Hollywood Brown | WR | WR5 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Bo Nix is the QB8 in fantasy points per game, but his play has been up-and-down this season. I will say that he has been playing much better football overall since Week 11. Since Week 11, among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, Nix has ranked fourth in passing yards per game, 11th in yards per attempt, 16th in highly accurate throw rate, and fifth in catchable target rate. The last time that he faced this Kansas City defense, he was the QB19 for the week, but he played much better than that with 295 passing yards, a 64.9% completion rate, and 8.0 yards per attempt. Nix should post strong QB1 numbers this week against a pass defense that, since Week 12, has allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the tenth-most passing touchdowns (tied).
Courtland Sutton is the WR16 in fantasy points per game with a 19.6% target share, 2.00 yards per route run, 64.8 receiving yards per game, and a 24.6% first-read share. Sutton is second on the team in red zone targets (14) and deep targets (21). Since Week 11, Kansas City has had the sixth-highest two-high rate (58.5%). Since Week 11, against two high, Sutton has led the team with a 19.5% target share and ranked second with a 22.2% first-read share while posting 1.50 yards per route run. Sutton should finish with another strong game this week against a secondary that, since Week 12, has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Troy Franklin is the WR28 in fantasy points per game with eight top 36 weekly finishes among wide receivers. Franklin has a 17.6% target share with 46.1 receiving yards per game, 1.65 yards per route run, and a 20.9% first-read share. Franklin leads the team with 16 red zone targets and 23 deep targets. He has been a high cholesterol usage machine all season. After his playing time seesawed in Week 14, Franklin has seen route shares of 58.3% and 71.4% over the last two games, so I’m not worried about his playing time this week. Since Week 11, Kansas City has had the sixth-highest two-high rate (58.5%). Since Week 11, against two high, Franklin’s usage has cratered with a 9.3% target share, 1.17 yards per route run, and an 11.1% first-read share. Franklin could hit on a big play or two, but I don’t see him getting peppered with targets this week. The matchup could help boost his efficiency this week against a secondary that has struggled to defend perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 12, Kansas City has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game.
Travis Kelce is the TE8 in fantasy points per game with a 17.7% target share, 53.5 receiving yards per game, 1.74 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. He has only 11 red zone targets this season and seven deep targets. Kelce could post TE1 numbers this week in a great matchup, but the level of quarterback play he sees this week could also drop him into TE2 land. There’s a wide range of outcomes for his Week 17 production. Since Week 10, Denver has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. The last time Kelce faced this defense, he was the TE3 for the week, securing nine of his 13 targets with 91 receiving yards (one touchdown).
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Chris Oladokun will draw the start for Kansas City this week with Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew sidelined with injuries. Last week, in relief of Minshew, Oladokun completed 68.8% of his passes with 6.94 yards per attempt and 4.4 aDOT. I don’t have high hopes for Oladokun this week against a stout Denver pass defense. Since Week 12, Denver has allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt while ranking 16th in passer rating and generating the third-best pressure rate. Oladokun is a low-end QB2 only worth considering in deep Superflex leagues.
Since Week 11, RJ Harvey has been the RB11 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.6 touches and 79.6 total yards with five touchdowns. Since Week 11, among 59 qualifying backs, Harvey has ranked 36th in explosive run rates and 27th in missed tackle rate. Harvey has had to deal with a brutal run out of run defenses as the Broncos’ starter. This week is a rematch with another nasty one. Harvey will need all the volume and touchdown equity he can get to pay off again for fantasy gamers. Since Week 12, Kansas City has allowed the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, the lowest rushing success rate, the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Last week, Isiah Pacheco was the Chiefs’ workhorse back with a 72.1% snap rate, 61.3% route share, and 29.2% target share. Pacheco finished with 14 touches and 75 total yards last week. Pacheco has looked like a shell of his former self this season with an 0.9% explosive run rate, an 8% missed tackle rate, and 2.07 yards after contact per attempt. Pacheco is a volume-driven flex this week. Since Week 12, Denver has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 13th-lowest rushing success rate, and the seventh-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Rashee Rice remains in the concussion protocol. I’ll update his status and outlook once we get more information this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses Week 17.
Since Week 7, Xavier Worthy has had only two games where he finished inside the top 36 receivers in weekly scoring and zero games inside the top 24. During that span, he has not surpassed 61 receiving yards in any game. Worthy has had a 14.8% target share with 43 receiving yards per game, 1.39 yards per route run, and an 18.6% first-read share. In those nine games, he has had only three red zone targets while seeing nine deep targets. Sit Worthy. Since Week 10, Denver has allowed the 14th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
