Fantasy Football Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.03 (2026)

Training camp is barely open, the Hall of Fame Game has hardly kicked off, but already we’re starting to see some news that could affect things at the top ends of drafts, and if you’re drafting from the 1.03, that seems particularly noteworthy. In this article, we’ll cover targets, fades, draft strategy, and more before diving into a mock draft from the 1.03. So, whether you’re drafting there or just being meticulous in your research, here’s what to expect.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Pick 1.03

Players to Consider at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick

Here are players that are at the top of ADP when you make your selection:

It’s fair to assume at least one of Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs will be gone, if not both, as they’re the consensus top two picks. There isn’t a clear consensus choice at 1.01, but both players are strong selections. If either should fall to the 1.03, then they’re incredibly easy picks. Following them, the selection gets tighter between the cluster of top wide receiver talent.

Players to Target at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)

Last year’s PPR RB2 in fantasy points per game, and now free from Tyler Allgeier, Bijan Robinson feels primed to take a big step forward in 2026. Allgeier tied Robinson for 43.5% of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line, and had 32 carries inside the red zone, compared to Robinson’s 35. The Falcons did add Brian Robinson in free agency, but they weren’t rushing to add a second body to this backfield, waiting almost two weeks before adding their second B. Robinson. Bijan Robinson led the league in missed tackles forced (75), with 27 more than any other player, while also ranking in the top five in rushing yards, explosive run rate, yards per carry, and leading in yards after contact per attempt (3.06). Where Robinson can take the leap is simple, it’s touchdowns. Robinson scored only seven rushing touchdowns, which resulted in the lowest touchdown percentage (2.4%) among the top seven running backs in fantasy. Nobody else was below 3%. The only real hole in Robinson’s profile is that we’re projecting a lot of touchdowns and that can be risky. On the 4th of August, Bijan signed a market-resetting deal among running backs, adding three years and $75m onto his contract. According to The Athletic, “The deal makes Robinson the highest-paid running back in NFL history with the base value worth $22.25 million per year, and the extension includes $51 million in guaranteed money.” Robinson hadn’t been practicing while the deal was hashed out, but will now have plenty of time to ramp up to full speed.

Jahmyr Gibbs (WR – DET)

Another young running back who has seen things clear out behind him is Jahmyr Gibbs, who saw David Montgomery move on, and only Isiah Pacheco was brought in. The reality is, Pacheco has been below four yards per carry in each of the last two seasons, has missed time in each of the last three, and has only once in four years had more than 19 receptions. Perhaps a change of scenery helps him find his feet again, but Gibbs has the clearest avenue he’s ever had and is coming off a career-high 94 targets. Gibbs has had over 50 receptions in each of his three seasons in the NFL and averages 13 total touchdowns per season. With more touches, Gibbs could be one of the highest ceiling plays in fantasy football. One way to consider this argument is, which backup do you believe steals more work, Pacheco or Brian Robinson? Gibbs, much like Bijan, hasn’t practiced so far through training camp while he waits for his own contract. One that you would expect looks similar to Robinson’s, but with an extra million here or there. There is the potential for concern if Gibbs’ hold-in drags on longer that it affects how drafters see him. After all, we’ve seen plenty of players come back from these standoffs to below average performances, but we’re still over a month away from the season starting and things could move quite quickly now that Robinson has provided the framework for a deal.

Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)

The Bengals might have improved their defense slightly, but they’re unlikely to become a unit that allows them to move away from the passing game consistently, and that continues to be excellent news for Ja’Marr Chase. For two consecutive years, Chase has led the league in targets with 175 and 185, respectively. Chase also has two years with 1400 or more receiving yards, and his consistency is worth paying for. Much of Chase’s ceiling outcome is linked to the health of Joe Burrow. In games with Burrow at quarterback since Chase was drafted, he averages 0.78 touchdowns and 20.67 PPR points. In the games without him, that drops to 0.33 and 15.48 points. Those aren’t terrible numbers, but the lack of touchdowns hurts. Burrow is fully healthy this offseason, and ceiling is the name of the game at the top of the draft. Lock Chase in for another WR1 overall season.

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
Off the field, Puka Nacua hasn’t had a great offseason, and the Rams seem to be slightly hesitant to extend him, with reports suggesting that’s not in their immediate plans despite Nacua being extension eligible and watching Jaxon Smith-Njigba reset the market. Things can change quickly, but for now, it sets Nacua up for what should be a massive prove-it year, both on and off the field. Nacua is coming off a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns, which until 2025 had been the only area his game lacked, having managed nine in the previous two seasons combined. Perhaps with an improving defense the Rams don’t go quite as pass-heavy this year, but Sean McVay has nearly always been aggressive and while Matthew Stafford is healthy, Nacua deserves to be a top pick.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)

1793 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns, 163 targets. It was a truly special year for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, leading the league in receiving yards and helping the Seahawks to a Super Bowl. The only cause for concern is Klint Kubiak, the former offensive coordinator, moving to become the Head Coach of the New Orleans Saints and a potential dip in efficiency from Sam Darnold. The positive side though, is that the team didn’t make any massive additions at receiver, outside of bringing back Rashid Shaheed, and let Kenneth Walker go, despite Zach Charbonnet facing a significant recovery period for his ACL injury. If Charbonnet isn’t back and rookie, Jadarian Price can’t adapt to the NFL quickly, could we see even more volume for JSN?

Most Likely Selection: Ja’Marr Chase. Assuming Bijan and Gibbs are both gone, Chase is perfect for PPR, Half PPR and Standard leagues due to his insane volume and touchdown equity.

Superflex Thoughts: In higher-stakes drafts, we are seeing the two running backs going before Josh Allen. This is in part due to the second-round quarterback run of Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence and Dak Prescott. Would you prefer to start Bijan and Caleb, or Allen and Saquon Barkley? It’s an interesting choice, and Josh Allen is a very comfortable click here with 41 rushing touchdowns in his last three years.

Players to Avoid at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)

Plenty of people have been hurt by fading Christian McCaffrey over the years, and it feels like a dangerous prospect when CMC was the RB1 in PPR points per game, scored 24.5 last year, 2.5 more than Bijan Robinson. The trouble is, McCaffrey PPR scammed his way to first place with his worst rushing production in a while. McCaffrey had 3.9 yards per carry, his lowest mark since 2020 in Carolina. This ranked 48th among running backs with 50 or more rush attempts, while also ranking 47th in yards after contact per attempt and 29th in missed tackles forced. McCaffrey turned 30 on June 7th, and while 129 targets last year isn’t to be sniffed at, this bet does feel slightly thin at times. McCaffrey is a stronger pick slightly later than this. With the news that Ricky Pearsall will miss the entirety of his third year and the re-signing of Deebo Samuel, it’s fair to consider if this impacts McCaffrey, as Samuel will do more work closer to the line of scrimmage, but McCaffrey is such a big cog in this offense that it’s unlikely to hamper things too much.

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

Another tough fade for this selection is Jonathan Taylor, who, according to teams synced to our FantasyPros tools, led all players in advance rate to the playoffs at 66.8%. Simply drafting Jonathan Taylor gave you a two-in-three chance of making the playoffs. Sadly, though, that wasn’t the whole story. Taylor was RB4 in PPG, but from Week 12 onwards was the RB21, with an explosive run rate of 0.7% (41st) and ranking 36th in yards after contact and scoring only three rushing touchdowns. Of course, much of this inefficiency came with the QB turmoil as Daniel Jones got beaten up and eventually tore his achilles, but if you’re that vulnerable to poor quarterback play, do you deserve to be drafted with the third overall pick when your quarterback is coming off said achilles injury and is also named Daniel Jones. Taylor, like Gibbs, is waiting for a Bijan Robinson-sized contract but there seems to be little progress so far. Unlike Gibbs, Taylor is practicing, though, and if he heads into a prove-it year, perhaps that helps his fortunes somewhat.

Roster Constructions to Consider at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick

We’re most likely looking at a wide receiver from this selection, with Robinson and Gibbs the favorites for the top two picks. Starting WR + WR could let you lean into Zero RB and that’s also open with an elite TE such as Brock Bowers or Trey McBride as late as the third round sometimes. The choices for your first RB will be a selection of Breece Hall, Jeremiyah Love, or Kyren Williams.

If a running back does fall for your first pick, then your WR selections in Rounds 2 and 3 are likely Nico Collins, George Pickens or Rashee Rice.

Running Back tends to dry up quicker than usual this year, but only having one wide receiver through three rounds can leave your WR room struggling to catch up. As ever, it’s a tricky decision and being open to all strategies leaves you the best prepared.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft From the 1.03 Pick

We used our FREE fantasy football mock draft simulator to show you an example of a draft from the 1.03 position. You can sync your league for free and mock draft against your fantasy football league settings to prepare more specifically for your draft. Here’s how our fantasy football mock draft from the 1.03 position turned out.

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About Author

Tom Strachan

@NFL_Tstrack

I'm a fantasy football addict, particularly in love with best ball and DFS. I can often be found scrutinising ADP and looking for edges in the best ball streets.