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Fantasy Baseball Player Notes

2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes

Fernando Tatis Jr. Note
Fernando Tatis Jr. photo 3. Fernando Tatis Jr. SS
Tatis Jr. has a bit of a shoulder issue, but nothing suggests he'll need to miss any time. He had an outstanding rookie year, but because he had outperformed his Statcast data so significantly, many fantasy managers were worried that his numbers would regress in 2020. Although his batting average did come down (to a still respectable .277), he not only staved off regression, but he improved significantly in most areas. He cut his strikeout rate by 6%, upped his walk rate by 2.5%, and led the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage. The fact that he's likely to throw in 25-30 steals over the course of a full season is just the cherry on top of elite fantasy production. He's a top-five overall pick with little or no downside and massive upside even off his incredible 2020 numbers, so long a there are no further developments with his shoulder.
19 weeks ago
Manny Machado Note
Manny Machado photo 14. Manny Machado 3B,SS
Machado was on pace to set career highs in most statistical categories other than steals after last year's 60-game season. He set career bests in strikeout and walk rates and, most importantly to fantasy managers, batting average, where he checked in at .304. Machado's batting average was earned (he had an identica .304 xBA), and came on the back of him cutting his ground ball rate to a career low 37.2% and his line drive rate to a career high 22%. Machado is still just entering his age-29 season, and will continue to bat in a loaded lineup. Expect some regression from his batting average, but all his other stellar numbers should remain on par, meaning it will be another outstanding season that is worth a second-round pick.
19 weeks ago
Trent Grisham Note
Trent Grisham photo 54. Trent Grisham LF,CF,RF
Grisham had an excellent debut season with San Diego, reaching double digits in both home runs and steals in his 59 games. He improved on his already strong walk rate from 2019, and improved his quality of contact significantly. Whether or not you buy the bat, we know he has plenty of speed to do damage on the basepaths, as he ranks in the 96th percentile in sprint speed. Slated to lead off again for a strong Padres lineup, Grisham should provide plenty of runs scored to go along with his potential for a 20-20 season. Monitor his hamstring strain he suffered in the spring, but unless he looks like he'll miss significant time, draft him with confidence.
19 weeks ago
Tommy Pham Note
Tommy Pham photo 68. Tommy Pham CF,DH,LF
Pham had a terrible 2020 season, during which he slashed .211/.312/.312 and hit just three home runs. A broken hamate bone limited him to just 31 games, and to make matters worse, he was stabbed in the lower back during an altercation in the offseason. But even entering his age-33 season, there are reasons to be optimistic about his 2021 outlook. Pham had averaged roughly 22 home runs and 22 steals with a .284 batting average the three years prior to last, and he had the highest hard-hit rate of his career in 2020. Indeed, his expected batting average of .266 was 55 points higher than his actual average. There's reason to expect Pham to return to his 20-20 ways if he can remain healthy, and batting in a loaded Padres lineup, he should add plenty of counting stats.
19 weeks ago
Wil Myers Note
Wil Myers photo 74. Wil Myers 1B,LF,CF,RF
Myers talked openly about making a swing change last year, and it paid off in a big way. He raised his average by nearly 50 points over the previous year while cutting his strikeout rate, and ranked in the top seven percent in barrel rate. Myers didn't run as much as previous years in the shortened season, but he still ranked in the top 85% of the league in sprint speed. His average will likely come down to closer to its career .254 mark. But he has earned a bit of a leash at least with his strong 2020 campaign, and should be a fine power-speed combination who will put up solid overall counting numbers.
19 weeks ago
Eric Hosmer Note
Eric Hosmer photo 88. Eric Hosmer 1B
Hosmer made no secret of his effort to attempt to (finally) stop pounding the ball into the ground so much last year, and it worked to perfection. His ground ball rate fell from roughly 57% the previous three seasons to just 46.2%, and his flyball rate rose from about 21% in the same span to 34.2%. The result was an impressive nine home runs in just 38 games in an injury-shortened season. Hosmer still hits the ball hard and if he can maintain the changes to his profile into 2021, he'll make an incredibly cheap corner infielder who can chip in pretty much everywhere.
19 weeks ago
Jake Cronenworth Note
Jake Cronenworth photo 127. Jake Cronenworth 1B,2B,SS
Austin Nola Note
Austin Nola photo 166. Austin Nola C,1B,2B
Nola has proven to be a quality bat for a catcher over the last two seasons, batting .271 with 17 home runs in 127 games over that span. He's in a great situation with the Padres, even if he will be batting at the bottom of the lineup, but a fractured finger will likely lead him to begin the season on the IL. Depending on how much time he'll miss, that could create a buying opportunity, as his ADP should drop a bit. As long he isn't projected to miss more than a couple of weeks, take the discount and enjoy premium production from the catcher position for the rest of the season.
19 weeks ago
Ha-Seong Kim Note
Ha-Seong Kim photo 172. Ha-Seong Kim 2B,3B,SS
Kim joins a loaded Padres team after a successful career in the KBO. He had a particularly strong 2020 season, slashing .306/.397/.523 with 30 home runs and 23 steals. Although he split time between shortstop and third base in the KBO, he should likely man second for the Padres, which is better for his fantasy value given the relative lack of strength of the position (though the signing of Jurickson Profar does add a few question marks). Kim is younger than most hitters coming over from the KBO - only 25 - and he has the speed and power to reach double digits in steals and homers pretty easily. But he's more of a 15-15 type of player, rather than the potential 30-25 he was last year, and he'll likely bat near the bottom of the order, limiting his plate appearance and runs and RBI opportunities. Draft him as a middle infield option, but with upside.
19 weeks ago
Jurickson Profar Note
Jurickson Profar photo 190. Jurickson Profar 1B,2B,CF,LF,RF
Adam Frazier Note
Adam Frazier photo 234. Adam Frazier 2B,LF
Victor Caratini Note
Victor Caratini photo 280. Victor Caratini C,1B,DH
Jake Marisnick Note
Jake Marisnick photo 342. Jake Marisnick CF
CJ Abrams Note
CJ Abrams photo 396. CJ Abrams SS
Luis Campusano Note
Luis Campusano photo 466. Luis Campusano C
Robert Hassell III Note
Robert Hassell III photo 482. Robert Hassell III LF,CF
Reginald Preciado Note
Reginald Preciado photo 531. Reginald Preciado SS
Jorge Mateo Note
Jorge Mateo photo 541. Jorge Mateo 3B,CF,LF,RF
Brian O'Grady Note
Brian O'Grady photo 661. Brian O'Grady CF,RF
Jorge Ona Note
Jorge Ona photo 734. Jorge Ona DH,LF
Nick Tanielu Note
Nick Tanielu photo 763. Nick Tanielu 2B,3B
Pedro Florimon Note
Pedro Florimon photo 764. Pedro Florimon 3B,SS
Patrick Kivlehan Note
Patrick Kivlehan photo 765. Patrick Kivlehan 1B,3B,LF,RF