Fantasy Football Player Notes
2023 Half PPR Draft Rankings
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35.
Ezekiel Elliott
I was vehemently against drafting Ezekiel Elliott across all formats in 2022. I was convinced that his best days were behind him and that Tony Pollard was the clear-cut better running back in the Dallas backfield. And I felt like the stance was mostly correct. Zeke finished as RB19 versus Pollard's RB7 status. Elliott posted career lows in yards per carry (3.7), receptions and targets. But he was an absolute TD monster, finishing second in expected touchdowns with 12 real rushing scores. Only Joe Mixon and Jamaal Williams totaled more carries inside the 10-yard line than Elliott. And ultimately the scoring was what made Zeke a usable fantasy asset especially after he returned from injury. He scored eight touchdowns from Weeks 11-17. However, with his potential return to Dallas surely coming with a large pay cut, there's no guarantee that Elliott maintains his previous role if Pollard becomes the highest-paid RB on the roster.
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37.
Kareem Hunt
There should have been a stronger case made that the Browns offense would struggle in 2022, making Kareem Hunt a tough bet to also deliver as the 1B to Nick Chubb's 1A. Hunt's bizarre lack of usage is what really held him back, but highly drafting No. 2 RBs in offenses with major question marks or turnovers is a tough sell. Hunt played over 50% of the snaps once all year (Week 1) and averaged just 9.4 touches per game, which ranked outside the top 50 running backs in 2022. In 2021, Hunt averaged nearly 3 more touches per game. The 2023 free-agent rusher was also not particularly efficient with a career-low 3.8 yards per carry. His days in Cleveland are most certainly over which opens the door for him to return to fantasy RB1 status as a new team's bellcow.
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40.
Leonard Fournette
Tom Brady's retirement might mark the end of Leonard Fournette with the Buccaneers. The team is pressed up versus the salary cap (31st in available salary cap space) and they have a potential out in Fournette's contract in 2023. Brady was pretty vocal about supporting Fournette through all his ups and downs during his Buccaneers' tenure, so his departure could be followed shortly by an ending for Playoff Lenny. With Fournette out, Rachaad White would become the entrenched starter entering the season. White saw his role grow during the second half of the season, forcing a timeshare with Fournette. From Weeks 10-17, White operated as the 1A in the Buccaneers' backfield averaging 11 fantasy points per game (RB26) versus Fournette's 11.3 (RB23). White wasn't great as a rusher - four yards per carry, 66.4 PFF rushing grade - but no running back was particularly efficient behind Tampa's patchwork offensive line. The first-year rusher was better than the 28-year-old on the ground, as the veteran finished third-to-last in rushing EPA (-39.13) and 6th-worst in PFF rushing grade (67.6). Lombardi Lenny posted his worst efficiency marks since joining the Bucs in 2022, ranking 4th-worst in NFL next-gen stats rushing yards over expectation per attempt (-0.36). There was also no better display of the Bucs' hierarchy in their backfield than White edging out Fournette on the field than in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Fournette carried the ball just five times for 11 yards while White started and rushed for 41 yards on 7 carries, adding 4-of-6 targets for 36 yards (56% snap share). Fournette's disappointing campaign - outside all the dump-off receptions/targets - will surely hurt his value if he hits the open market.
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42.
Bijan Robinson
Anytime a running back draws first-round buzz in today's NFL, you better pay attention. That's the case with Texas running back Bijan Robinson, who is the consensus No. 1 RB across all draft publications. B-Rob finished the 2022 season as PFF's second-highest-graded rusher in the FBS, tallying 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards en route to a 37% dominator rating in his final year as a Longhorn. He forced 104 missed tackles (40% broken tackle rate) which have shown to be super predictive of success rushing at the NFL level. And among last year's class, only Breece Hall posted a higher dominator rating (40%). But only citing Robinson's junior year hardly captures everything he could accomplish at the college level. As a true freshman, he ranked second in the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (6.09). His 27% career dominator rating ranks top-5 in the 2023 Draft Class. Factor in that Robinson also finished 3rd among RBs in yards per catch (16.5) with zero drops and there's no question as to why he's the 1.01 already in rookie drafts. At 6-foot, 220 pounds, Robinson has the requisite size and all the tools to be a three-down running back who never leaves the field.
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48.
Jerick McKinnon
From Weeks 10-17, both Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon were top-21 half-point scorers. Jerick McKinnon was the RB7 in points per game, third in RB receptions at 35 with seven receiving TDs. The Chiefs scatback made the most of his opportunities as a receiver out of the backfield especially with Mecole Hardman sidelined. Because Hardman's injury correlated with a massive spike in usage for McKinnnon. In eight games with Hardman in the lineup, McKinnon was averaging close to just three targets per game. That number jumped to five in the nine games with Hardman out, as did McKinnon's receptions totals (2-to-4). His yardage also spiked from just under 20 yards to nearly 40 receiving yards per game. It's clear at this point in McKinnon's career that he cannot be deployed as anything more than a breather/pass-catching back in the rotation with another. He is already 30 years old and probably has the most fantasy value if he remains a Chief. His re-signing with KC would also be ideal for anyone invested in Pacheco, as a McKinnon return would make it less likely that KC invests significantly into another running back option. If ends up signing elsewhere, I'd be extremely bearish on his fantasy outlook as he requires such a specific role for success.
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58.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Incoming rookie Jahmyr Gibbs spent his first two college seasons at Georgia Tech, posting a 24% dominator rating as the team's RB1 alongside future San Francisco 49er running back, Jordan Mason. In both his years at Georgia Tech, Gibbs finished second in PFF receiving grade among all RBs. However, he elected to not stay at GT for his junior year and instead transferred to Alabama to be the Crimson Tide's next RB1. He led Alabama with 926 rushing yards and flashed receiving ability by catching a team-leading 44 passes for 444 receiving yards. Gibbs finished third in the FBS in receiving yards in 2022, one year removed from leading all RBs in the nation in receiving yards (470). He also flashed his explosiveness by ending the year fifth in the class in PFF's breakaway run rate (53%). At 5-foot-11 and 200 pounds, Gibbs is on the smaller size for an every-down role. But he more than makes up for it with his receiving and speed. NFL teams don't seem concerned about his size with his expected draft position at 36th overall.
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64.
Zach Charbonnet
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65.
D'Ernest Johnson
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74.
Kenyan Drake
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75.
Tank Bigsby
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76.
J.D. McKissic
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78.
Devon Achane
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79.
Melvin Gordon III
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80.
Darrel Williams
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82.
Dontrell Hilliard
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85.
Israel Abanikanda
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86.
Justin Jackson
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87.
Latavius Murray
New head coach Sean Payton has already name-dropped Latavius Murray, a 2023 free agent that the Broncos seem more likely than not to re-sign with Payton operating at the helm. The two have obvious ties back to New Orleans, and Murray performed well when Denver scooped him up during the middle of last season after Javonte Williams went down with a devastating knee injury. In 12 games from Weeks 6-18, Murray was the RB24 in half-point scoring averaging 10.3 points per game (RB30). He was PFF's 10th-highest graded rusher (82.8) and averaged 15 touches per game. Murray also averaged nearly 70 yards from scrimmage and 3 targets per game. Not too shabby for the 33-year-old running back. With Williams potentially delayed in a return from his knee injury, I'd suspect that Murray picks up the slack to open the year if he stays in the Mile High City. He is essentially free in best-ball drafts as the RB72, which seems like an error in the drafting community.
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88.
Kendre Miller
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90.
Sean Tucker
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91.
Zach Evans
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92.
Darrell Henderson Jr.
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95.
Ty Johnson
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96.
Mark Ingram II
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97.
Marlon Mack
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98.
Rex Burkhead
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99.
Roschon Johnson
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102.
DeWayne McBride
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104.
Kenny McIntosh
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106.
Eric Gray
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110.
Deuce Vaughn
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113.
Tyjae Spears
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114.
Mohamed Ibrahim
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117.
Sony Michel
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120.
Evan Hull
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127.
Mike Davis
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130.
Chase Brown
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132.
Damien Williams
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134.
Giovani Bernard
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135.
Jaret Patterson
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136.
Royce Freeman
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137.
Benny Snell Jr.
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139.
Phillip Lindsay
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142.
Keaton Mitchell
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143.
Tevin Coleman
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144.
Duke Johnson Jr.
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146.
Malcolm Brown
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151.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
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161.
Kylin Hill
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173.
Derek Watt
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178.
Jordan Howard
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179.
David Johnson
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181.
Devine Ozigbo
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182.
Wayne Gallman Jr.
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184.
Abram Smith
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185.
Devonta Freeman
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186.
Devontae Booker
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187.
Alex Collins
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188.
Tarik Cohen
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190.
Carlos Hyde
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192.
Peyton Barber
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193.
Kerryon Johnson
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