Fantasy Football Player Notes
2023 Half PPR Draft Rankings
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101.
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
I was vehemently against drafting Ezekiel Elliott across all formats in 2022. I was convinced that his best days were behind him and that Tony Pollard was the clear-cut better running back in the Dallas backfield. And I felt like the stance was mostly correct. Zeke finished as RB19 versus Pollard's RB7 status. Elliott posted career lows in yards per carry (3.7), receptions and targets. But he was an absolute TD monster, finishing second in expected touchdowns with 12 real rushing scores. Only Joe Mixon and Jamaal Williams totaled more carries inside the 10-yard line than Elliott. And ultimately the scoring was what made Zeke a usable fantasy asset especially after he returned from injury. He scored eight touchdowns from Weeks 11-17. However, with his potential return to Dallas surely coming with a large pay cut, there's no guarantee that Elliott maintains his previous role if Pollard becomes the highest-paid RB on the roster.
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108.
Kareem Hunt
RB
There should have been a stronger case made that the Browns offense would struggle in 2022, making Kareem Hunt a tough bet to also deliver as the 1B to Nick Chubb's 1A. Hunt's bizarre lack of usage is what really held him back, but highly drafting No. 2 RBs in offenses with major question marks or turnovers is a tough sell. Hunt played over 50% of the snaps once all year (Week 1) and averaged just 9.4 touches per game, which ranked outside the top 50 running backs in 2022. In 2021, Hunt averaged nearly 3 more touches per game. The 2023 free-agent rusher was also not particularly efficient with a career-low 3.8 yards per carry. His days in Cleveland are most certainly over which opens the door for him to return to fantasy RB1 status as a new team's bellcow.
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111.
Leonard Fournette
RB
Tom Brady's retirement might mark the end of Leonard Fournette with the Buccaneers. The team is pressed up versus the salary cap (31st in available salary cap space) and they have a potential out in Fournette's contract in 2023. Brady was pretty vocal about supporting Fournette through all his ups and downs during his Buccaneers' tenure, so his departure could be followed shortly by an ending for Playoff Lenny. With Fournette out, Rachaad White would become the entrenched starter entering the season. White saw his role grow during the second half of the season, forcing a timeshare with Fournette. From Weeks 10-17, White operated as the 1A in the Buccaneers' backfield averaging 11 fantasy points per game (RB26) versus Fournette's 11.3 (RB23). White wasn't great as a rusher - four yards per carry, 66.4 PFF rushing grade - but no running back was particularly efficient behind Tampa's patchwork offensive line. The first-year rusher was better than the 28-year-old on the ground, as the veteran finished third-to-last in rushing EPA (-39.13) and 6th-worst in PFF rushing grade (67.6). Lombardi Lenny posted his worst efficiency marks since joining the Bucs in 2022, ranking 4th-worst in NFL next-gen stats rushing yards over expectation per attempt (-0.36). There was also no better display of the Bucs' hierarchy in their backfield than White edging out Fournette on the field than in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Fournette carried the ball just five times for 11 yards while White started and rushed for 41 yards on 7 carries, adding 4-of-6 targets for 36 yards (56% snap share). Fournette's disappointing campaign - outside all the dump-off receptions/targets - will surely hurt his value if he hits the open market.
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116.
Bijan Robinson
RB
Anytime a running back draws first-round buzz in today's NFL, you better pay attention. That's the case with Texas running back Bijan Robinson, who is the consensus No. 1 RB across all draft publications. B-Rob finished the 2022 season as PFF's second-highest-graded rusher in the FBS, tallying 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards en route to a 37% dominator rating in his final year as a Longhorn. He forced 104 missed tackles (40% broken tackle rate) which have shown to be super predictive of success rushing at the NFL level. And among last year's class, only Breece Hall posted a higher dominator rating (40%). But only citing Robinson's junior year hardly captures everything he could accomplish at the college level. As a true freshman, he ranked second in the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (6.09). His 27% career dominator rating ranks top-5 in the 2023 Draft Class. Factor in that Robinson also finished 3rd among RBs in yards per catch (16.5) with zero drops and there's no question as to why he's the 1.01 already in rookie drafts. At 6-foot, 220 pounds, Robinson has the requisite size and all the tools to be a three-down running back who never leaves the field.
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133.
Jerick McKinnon
RB
From Weeks 10-17, both Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon were top-21 half-point scorers. Jerick McKinnon was the RB7 in points per game, third in RB receptions at 35 with seven receiving TDs. The Chiefs scatback made the most of his opportunities as a receiver out of the backfield especially with Mecole Hardman sidelined. Because Hardman's injury correlated with a massive spike in usage for McKinnnon. In eight games with Hardman in the lineup, McKinnon was averaging close to just three targets per game. That number jumped to five in the nine games with Hardman out, as did McKinnon's receptions totals (2-to-4). His yardage also spiked from just under 20 yards to nearly 40 receiving yards per game. It's clear at this point in McKinnon's career that he cannot be deployed as anything more than a breather/pass-catching back in the rotation with another. He is already 30 years old and probably has the most fantasy value if he remains a Chief. His re-signing with KC would also be ideal for anyone invested in Pacheco, as a McKinnon return would make it less likely that KC invests significantly into another running back option. If ends up signing elsewhere, I'd be extremely bearish on his fantasy outlook as he requires such a specific role for success.
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160.
DJ Chark Jr.
WR
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163.
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
Incoming rookie Jahmyr Gibbs spent his first two college seasons at Georgia Tech, posting a 24% dominator rating as the team's RB1 alongside future San Francisco 49er running back, Jordan Mason. In both his years at Georgia Tech, Gibbs finished second in PFF receiving grade among all RBs. However, he elected to not stay at GT for his junior year and instead transferred to Alabama to be the Crimson Tide's next RB1. He led Alabama with 926 rushing yards and flashed receiving ability by catching a team-leading 44 passes for 444 receiving yards. Gibbs finished third in the FBS in receiving yards in 2022, one year removed from leading all RBs in the nation in receiving yards (470). He also flashed his explosiveness by ending the year fifth in the class in PFF's breakaway run rate (53%). At 5-foot-11 and 200 pounds, Gibbs is on the smaller size for an every-down role. But he more than makes up for it with his receiving and speed. NFL teams don't seem concerned about his size with his expected draft position at 36th overall.
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183.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
Smith-Njiba won't burn you in the open field with his raw speed, but that isn't necessary for him to succeed. He's a route tactician with the route-running chops of an NFL veteran. Smith-Njiba's snap at the top of his stem is excellent, which allows him to create easy separation. Any team investing high draft capital in him knows what they are getting: a high-volume wide receiver that can work both inside and on the perimeter. Yes, Smith-Njiba was a slot receiver in college, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have the intangibles to get loose on the boundary. He wins with excellent, quick footwork at the line and in space. He's more quick than fast. Also, in saying that, it has to be mentioned that he is plenty quick to win in the NFL. While it's not a huge part of his game (only 16.1% of his 2021 target volume), he can win on vertical routes. He flashes the ability to stack corners on verticals from the slot easily. Smith-Njiba was ninth in yards per route run on deep targets, tied for first In PFF deep receiving grade, and second in passer rating when targeted on routes 20-plus yards in 2021 (minimum 15 deep targets). Smith-Njigba could be an immediate target hog in the NFL. He will be an immediate asset to the run game. He's a tenacious blocker who engages well with defenders and anchors them. He won't blow defenders out of their cleats, but he has the functional strength to hold running lanes or clear a path.
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184.
Quentin Johnston
WR
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188.
Jordan Addison
WR
Addison is fluid and silky smooth through his routes. He's quick in and out of his breaks. He displays nuance in his routes with pacing, subtle head fakes, and his understanding of leverage. His change of direction ability is effortless. He can gear down easily and jab step during a route without losing speed. Addison has a decent burst after the catch, but it's not likely to ever be a calling card. He dealt with drops early in his collegiate career, with 14.3% and 9.9% drop rates before 2022. He displayed growth here in 2022, decreasing that mark to 3.3%. He has strong hands, though, with contested catch rates of 53.8% and 55.6% before 2022. Addison will never be confused as a body catcher as he routinely plucks the ball from the air away from this body. Addison is a versatile wide receiver that played from the slot in 2020-2021 (68.0-82.6%) before transitioning to the boundary (75.5% out wide) in 2022. His superb route running and short area separation skills allow him to play multiple roles fluidly. Addison's varied release package at this stage of his career is impressive. Addison reminds me of watching DeVonta Smith with a difference in play strength. Smith played above his weight class, but Addison played at his weight.
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190.
Mecole Hardman
WR
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193.
Zach Charbonnet
RB
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219.
Zay Flowers
WR
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228.
D'Ernest Johnson
RB
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235.
Odell Beckham Jr.
WR
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239.
Robbie Gould
K
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244.
Julio Jones
WR
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248.
Jalin Hyatt
WR
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249.
Tank Bigsby
RB
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252.
Irv Smith Jr.
TE
Hopes were high for Irv Smith Jr. in 2022 after he missed the entire 2021 season with a torn meniscus in his knee, but Smith endured a high-ankle sprain in Week 8 and didn't make it back until Week 18. Smith finished the year with 25 catches for 182 yards and two touchdowns in eight games. Smith won't turn 25 until August, so there's still hope that the former second-round draft pick will become a fantasy-viable tight end, but he's likely to be an afterthought in most 2023 fantasy drafts.
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255.
Josh Downs
WR
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263.
Bryce Young
QB
Likely to be the first quarterback taken in this year's NFL Draft, Alabama's Bryce Young is a pinpoint passer with a strong arm, quick release and the sort of field-reading ability that will endear him to his first NFL offensive coordinator. Young is agile, but he isn't going to add a great deal of fantasy value with his legs. The biggest concern with Young is his small frame. He's listed at 6-0, 194 pounds. The size issue won't prevent Young from being a top draft pick, and he's a good bet to be a Week 1 starter for whichever team selects him.
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265.
Devon Achane
RB
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266.
Marvin Jones Jr.
WR
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271.
Richie James Jr.
WR
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273.
Kenyan Drake
RB
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278.
C.J. Stroud
QB
Projected to be a top-five pick in this year's NFL Draft, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud is a mature passer with a strong, accurate arm and the sort of field-reading and decision-making skills that make offensive coordinators smile. Stroud isn't a running QB, but nor is he a statue in the pocket -- he has functional mobility to avoid sacks. With a number of QB-needy teams picking early in the draft, there's a good chance Stroud will start for someone in Week 1.
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279.
J.D. McKissic
RB
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285.
Kendre Miller
RB
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286.
Brett Maher
K
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288.
Kayshon Boutte
WR
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289.
Jarvis Landry
WR
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290.
Melvin Gordon III
RB
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292.
Austin Hooper
TE
After finishing TE3 in fantasy points per game in 2019, Austin Hooper has largely been a fantasy afterthought ever since. He's had fewer than 450 receiving yards in each of the last three years, and he finished TE25 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring last season. The 28-year-old Hooper offers limited upside for 2023, especially with young TE Chig Okonkwo looking like a potential star for the Titans last year.
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294.
Zach Evans
RB
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298.
Israel Abanikanda
RB
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299.
Sean Tucker
RB
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300.
Latavius Murray
RB
New head coach Sean Payton has already name-dropped Latavius Murray, a 2023 free agent that the Broncos seem more likely than not to re-sign with Payton operating at the helm. The two have obvious ties back to New Orleans, and Murray performed well when Denver scooped him up during the middle of last season after Javonte Williams went down with a devastating knee injury. In 12 games from Weeks 6-18, Murray was the RB24 in half-point scoring averaging 10.3 points per game (RB30). He was PFF's 10th-highest graded rusher (82.8) and averaged 15 touches per game. Murray also averaged nearly 70 yards from scrimmage and 3 targets per game. Not too shabby for the 33-year-old running back. With Williams potentially delayed in a return from his knee injury, I'd suspect that Murray picks up the slack to open the year if he stays in the Mile High City. He is essentially free in best-ball drafts as the RB72, which seems like an error in the drafting community.
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302.
Chosen Anderson
WR
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306.
Justin Jackson
RB
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307.
Dontrell Hilliard
RB
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309.
Darrel Williams
RB
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313.
Michael Mayer
TE
Regarded by many as the top rookie tight end in the Class of 2023, Michael Mayer of Notre Dame has drawn comparisons to Jason Witten because he shines as both a pass catcher and blocker. Mayer had more than 800 receiving yards in each of his last two college seasons, scoring seven touchdowns in 2021 and nine in 2022. He's likely to be a first-round pick in this year's draft and could provide immediate fantasy value if he lands in the right spot.
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316.
Darrell Henderson Jr.
RB
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318.
Mason Crosby
K
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321.
Nelson Agholor
WR
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323.
Rodrigo Blankenship
K
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324.
Roschon Johnson
RB
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325.
Kenny Golladay
WR
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326.
Rex Burkhead
RB
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328.
Will Levis
QB
Likely to be a top-10 draft pick and a dark-horse candidate to be taken first overall, Will Levis has immense potential but might need a few years before he's ready to fulfill it. Levis has prototypical size (6-3, 232 pounds), a cannon arm and dynamic rushing ability. But Levis is coming off a somewhat disappointing final college season at Kentucky, and he might not be a Week 1 starter for whichever team drafts him. He'll get a shot at some point in his rookie season, however, and perhaps Levis' running ability can float his fantasy value while he develops as a passer.
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329.
Jamison Crowder
WR
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330.
Rashee Rice
WR
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331.
Marlon Mack
RB
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333.
Foster Moreau
TE
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334.
Cedric Tillman
WR
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335.
Mark Ingram II
RB
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336.
Tyjae Spears
RB
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338.
DeWayne McBride
RB
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340.
Ty Johnson
RB
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341.
Anthony Richardson
QB
Anthony Richardson might have the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this year's NFL Draft. The 6-4, 235-pound Richardson has ideal size, a rocket for his arm and eye-opening running ability. But Richardson was a starter for only one of his three seasons at the University of Florida, and after completing only 53.8% of his passes in 2022, there are questions about his accuracy. Richardson is a project who might not start for an NFL team right away. When he eventually become a starter, Richardson can tide over his fantasy managers with rushing production while his passing skills are developing.
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344.
Dalton Kincaid
TE
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346.
Kenny McIntosh
RB
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349.
Marvin Mims
WR
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350.
Evan Hull
RB
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355.
Luke Musgrave
TE
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362.
Deuce Vaughn
RB
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363.
Eric Gray
RB
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366.
Sammy Watkins
WR
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372.
Tyler Davis
K
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374.
Xavier Hutchinson
WR
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376.
Puka Nacua
WR
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380.
Randy Bullock
K
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381.
Parker Washington
WR
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383.
Carson Wentz
QB
After washing out as the Colts' starter in 2021, Carson Wentz was similarly disappointing in Washington last season, averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt over eight games. A near-lock to be released before summer, Wentz is unlikely to begin the 2023 season as a starter, though it's possible he could make a few early-season starts for a team looking to bring along a rookie quarterback slowly.
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384.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WR
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389.
Chris Moore
WR
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391.
Demarcus Robinson
WR
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393.
T.Y. Hilton
WR
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398.
A.T. Perry
WR
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400.
Darnell Washington
TE
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404.
Mohamed Ibrahim
RB
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411.
DeAndre Carter
WR
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412.
Cameron Brate
TE
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413.
Damien Williams
RB
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414.
Sam Laporta
TE
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419.
Byron Pringle
WR
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424.
Matt Ryan
QB
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425.
Randall Cobb
WR
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428.
Kyle Rudolph
TE
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429.
Marquise Goodwin
WR
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433.
Chase Brown
RB
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434.
Giovani Bernard
RB
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435.
Mike Davis
RB
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439.
Sony Michel
RB
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443.
Zack Kuntz
TE
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445.
Jonathan Mingo
WR
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446.
Zakhari Franklin
WR
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448.
Keaton Mitchell
RB
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449.
Dan Arnold
TE
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456.
Marcus Johnson
WR
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462.
Geoff Swaim
TE
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468.
Justin Watson
WR
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474.
Dante Pettis
WR
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477.
Phillip Lindsay
RB
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478.
Duke Johnson Jr.
RB
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480.
Jaret Patterson
RB
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482.
Ryan Griffin
TE
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483.
KhaDarel Hodge
WR
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484.
Zach Gentry
TE
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497.
Mitchell Wilcox
TE
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501.
Jason Moore Jr.
WR
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502.
Juwann Winfree
WR
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506.
Tommy Sweeney
TE
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508.
Jake Moody
K
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510.
Trey Palmer
WR
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513.
MyCole Pruitt
TE
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514.
Pharaoh Brown
TE
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515.
Drew Sample
TE
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517.
Nick Boyle
TE
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518.
Charlie Jones
WR
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520.
Dontayvion Wicks
WR
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527.
Marcedes Lewis
TE
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529.
Malcolm Brown
RB
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533.
Brandon Powell
WR
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535.
Michael Bandy
WR
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536.
Rashard Higgins
WR
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537.
Eric Tomlinson
TE
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538.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB
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539.
Trevon Wesco
TE
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540.
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
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549.
Scotty Miller
WR
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550.
Breshad Perriman
WR
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553.
Damiere Byrd
WR
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563.
Bryan Edwards
WR
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566.
Brett Rypien
QB
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567.
Josh Johnson
QB
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568.
Trevor Siemian
QB
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570.
Brandon Allen
QB
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571.
Chase Daniel
QB
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577.
Tevin Coleman
RB
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579.
Richard Rodgers
TE
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580.
Miles Boykin
WR
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586.
Brandon Zylstra
WR
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587.
Stephen Anderson
TE
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