Marshawn Lynch may be one of the more polarizing players in recent memory. Between his on-field ability that earned him the nickname “Beast Mode”, his crotch grabbing TD celebrations, the affinity for Skittles, his unrivaled interview quotes, and now his return to football after a year off where he recently said he didn’t miss the game … it all makes his current average draft position (ADP) all the more curious.
Of course, any time you look at draft positions, there will typically be a few players that are head scratchers. Nobody ever wants to feel like they didn’t get a fair deal so we asked our featured pundits below to identify who they’re avoiding based on overpriced costs.
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Q. What player with a top 50 ADP is least likely to be on any of your fantasy teams?
Marshawn Lynch (RB – OAK): Overall ADP – 25
“I’m sure he’s fine and he landed in a great spot, but let’s be clear here: the guy is 31, spent last year out of football and wasn’t great in his last season in 2015. Lamar Miller is being taken after him and there are rookie rushers to consider. If Beast Mode falls to me at a value, I’ll consider it. But there are too many question marks to force me to reach early.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)
“Marshawn Lynch may indeed still have some gas left in the tank, but his potential range of outcomes are pretty wide. He is playing behind a solid offensive line with little competition ahead of him, and he will likely see a lot of goal line action, assuming he remains healthy. So there are some encouraging factors, but at his current FantasyPros redraft ADP of 25, the price is just a little too rich for me to gamble on a 31-year-old running back who has been out of football for a year. At this point in the draft, I’d much rather gamble on a young RB with upside like Fournette, McCaffrey, or Mixon.”
– Ken Moody (Dynasty League Football)
Matt Ryan (QB – ATL): Overall ADP – 40
“Ryan will be on exactly zero of my fantasy teams. In general, I am a late-round QB drafter who believes that guys like Dak Prescott, who I can draft in the 10th round, will be every bit as good when playing the matchups. However, this isn’t just an anti-QB rant, it’s a call to avoid the regression coming to Matt Ryan. In recent history, we have watched teams with outlier fantasy seasons come plummeting back to earth after a failed Superbowl (Cam Newton). The five previous seasons for Ryan saw him average 27 TDs, last year he threw 38. Throwing 11 more TDs than your average with that large of sample size screams that he’s going to come back down to earth and is not worthy of his current ADP.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers)
Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC): Overall ADP – 21
“Fournette is currently featured on zero of my fantasy teams, and that was before his problematic injury concerns flared up again. He may be the bell cow in Jacksonville, but what good does it do him to be playing in a bad offense when his team is going to be down in most games? I’m also wary of any running backs who have been bad at catching the football suddenly “looking good” in the passing game during camp. That sounds almost as good as Blake Bortles fixing his throwing motion.”
– Alessandro Miglio (Footballguys)
Jordan Howard (RB – CHI): Overall ADP – 13
“Howard is unlikely to be on any of my fantasy teams this year. The Bears will be lucky to get even six wins, and they should have negative game scripts for much of the season. As good of a runner as Howard is, he’s not likely to be as efficient this year as he was last year (5.2 YPC), and he’s a below-average receiver who now has to compete for targets with Benny Cunningham and Tarik Cohen. Howard’s not a bad player, but it doesn’t seem like a good idea to invest a high second-round pick into any running back tied to Mike Glennon and Mitch Trubisky.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyLabs)
DeMarco Murray (RB – TEN): Overall ADP – 11
“If there’s one player I’ll own none of in 2017, it’s likely DeMarco Murray. In an offseason research project I did, 29-year-old running backs didn’t fare too well. Over the last 10 years, there’ve been 58 different running backs who’ve played at age-29 and just one of them was able to finish as a top-six fantasy option. Not only is age going against him, but the Titans have a more than competent running back to split the carries with him in Derrick Henry, the guy they drafted in the second round just one year ago. Murray already showed signs of slowing down when he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and scored one touchdown over the final six weeks of 2016, and he is now dealing with a soft tissue injury that is forcing him to miss most (if not all) of the preseason. LeSean McCoy is another 29-year-old who is being drafted as a top-six option. The odds are that neither of them finish in that range, but if you’re betting on one, it shouldn’t be Murray. He’s just too expensive for his limited upside.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Terrelle Pryor (WR – WAS): Overall ADP – 34
“New Redskins WR Terrelle Pryor won’t make his way to any of my fantasy football teams this season. There are so many factors working against him, it’s impossible for me to think of him as a third- or even a fourth-round pick.
- He’s a former quarterback that has exactly one year as a wide receiver under his belt.
- It’s very rare for a non-WR1 on one team to sign a free-agent deal with a new team to be their WR1, and be successful in their first year.
- The Redskins offense is dealing with several changes, including the loss of two of their top receivers last season, and their offensive coordinator.
- Pryor has had some head-case problems in the past — how long until those re-emerge once Jamison Crowder starts getting too many looks from Kirk Cousins?
- There are a several good WRs being picked near Pryor’s ADP, making him a risk not worth taking.”
Tom Brady (QB – NE): Overall ADP – 23
“There is virtually a 0% chance Brady ends up on any of my standard league teams, as he is currently being drafted at the end of the 2nd round on average and I wouldn’t touch him until the early 5th. Don’t hear me wrong, he is still a top two player in the NFL, but for fantasy football. It doesn’t make sense to take a QB in the first four rounds unless his name is Aaron Rodgers because you’ve got players like Andy Dalton, who has outscored Brady two of the past four seasons, going ten rounds later. It isn’t about taking the player who scores the most fantasy points in each round, or we’d take Matt Bryant over Julio Jones. Rather, we want the best overall team, and you will be in much better shape with Leonard Fournette and Andy Dalton, than Tom Brady and Darren Sproles as your 2nd and 13th round picks.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)
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Thank you to the experts for naming their players to avoid. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice and check out our latest podcast below.
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