Hey everybody, here’s your weekly two-start pitcher rankings. If you’re reading this, it means you’re still alive in your league as we reach the season’s final month. So congrats, and may all your pitching streamers be golden!
As usual, it’s a fairly top-heavy week, with a pretty big drop-off after the first two tiers. Remember that probable pitchers are always subject to change, so double-check your two-start options before your lineup gets locked in. And if you’ve got any questions for me, let me know on Twitter.
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Too Big To Fail
1. Corey Kluber (8/28 @NYY, 9/2 @DET)
Kluber is fourth among starting pitchers in CBS points leagues, and has been nothing short of dominant over the last three months. Since June 1, he has an 1.87 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 13.0 K/9 rate. Pretty incredible stuff.
2. Chris Sale (8/29 @TOR, 9/3 @NYY)
Sale is coming off his worst start of the season, but he’s still the number one pitcher in CBS points leagues. Let’s not overthink this.
3. Stephen Strasburg (8/29 vs. MIA, 9/3 @MIL)
Strasburg has been a model of consistency over his career when healthy — he hasn’t had an ERA over 3.60 or struck out less than a batter per innings in any of his six full seasons, and his 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 10.5 K/9 rate this year are almost identical to his career averages. He’s allowed just two earned runs in 12 innings since returning from the disabled list, and his matchups this week aren’t awful despite having to face Giancarlo Stanton.
4. Luis Severino (8/28 vs, CLE, 9/2 vs. BOS)
Severino continues to enjoy a breakout season. He was hammered by the Red Sox for eight runs in 4 1/3 innings on August 12, but has given up one earned run or fewer in his other seven starts since July 15.
5. Jake Arrieta (8/29 vs. PIT, 9/3 vs. ATL)
Arrieta is finally back in must-start territory. He has a 1.85 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9 rate over 10 starts since the beginning of July. His matchups this week are also quite appealing.
The Next Best Thing
6. Rich Hill (8/29 @ARI, 9/2 @SD)
Hill was robbed of a perfect game, a no-hitter, and even a win in an extra-inning loss to the Pirates in his last start. But at least he can take solace in the fact that he’s pitched awfully well of late. He has a 2.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 11.6 K/9 rate since the start of July. The trip to Chase Field is a little scary, but Hill’s owners will then be rewarded with a trip to Petco Park.
7. Zack Godley (8/29 vs. LAD, 9/3 @COL)
Godley has hit a bit of a rough patch of late (4.37 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over his last four starts), but it’s hardly been catastrophic. His strikeout rate is actually up lately and his season-long numbers remain pristine (3.15 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). It’s not the ideal time for a trip to Coors, but when is, really? He’d be very tough to sit in a two-start week.
8. Drew Pomeranz (8/28 @TOR, 9/2 @NYY)
Pomeranz has settled in nicely as a Red Sox, posting a 3.18 ERA and 9.6 K/9 rate so far this year. His high walk rate will always be a bit of a drag on his WHIP and could lead to some rough outings here and there, but he’s firmly established himself as a reliable mid-rotation fantasy arm. He also has a 1.59 ERA over five starts since July 30.
9. Hyun-Jin Ryu (8/30 @ARI, 9/3 @SD)
I’ve long been a member of the Ryu fan club, and I’m not about to quit now. He has a 2.13 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9 rate since June 17, and he’s given up three runs or fewer in all nine of those starts. Like Hill, Ryu gets a challenging start in Arizona and an appealing start in San Diego.
10. Jeff Samardzija (8/28 @SD, 9/2 vs. STL)
Slowly but surely, Samardzija is starting to get more results that match his strong peripherals. Since July 26, he’s sporting a 3.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The irony is that these improved results have occurred just as his strikeout rate has dropped and his walk rate has increased. Perhaps Samardzija is destined to forever remain a mystery.
11. Luke Weaver (8/29 @MIL, 9/3 @SF)
Weaver is showing signs that he could be the next breakout pitcher, sporting a 2.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through his first six Major League appearances. What’s most exciting is that he has 18 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts, after striking out slightly less than a batter per inning at Triple-A this year. If he can keep missing bats, success should follow. He’s worth throwing out there this week, particularly with an appealing road start against the Giants on the schedule.
12. Marcus Stroman (8/28 vs. BOS, 9/2 @BAL)
Stroman has had his ups and downs this season, but most points league owners will probably take his 3.17 ERA, even though it comes with a modest strikeout rate and somewhat bloated WHIP. Neither the Red Sox nor the Orioles are a prohibitive matchup for right-handers this year, so Stroman is a solid enough option.
Decent-ish Options
13. Ervin Santana (8/29 vs. CHW, 9/3 vs. KC)
Santana’s surprising early-season stats looked to be on the verge of meeting the harsh reality that his peripherals foretold, but he seems to have righted the ship lately. Over five starts in August, he has a 2.73 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 rate. It’s unlikely that Santana continues to strike batters out at that rate, which is well above anything he’s done before, but if he does he could ride this hot streak out and complete an impressive season. The matchups are certainly right to keep it going this week.
14. Trevor Bauer (8/29 @NYY, 9/3 @DET)
Bauer’s 10.14 K/9 rate is in the top-10 among qualified starters, and his peripherals suggest he should improve on his 4.59 ERA as the season progresses. And that’s exactly what’s been happening of late — Bauer has a 2.20 ERA since July 27. Bauer gives up too many walks and home runs to expect a true breakout, but he’s a solid option at the moment. If nothing else, you’ll likely get a nice helping of strikeouts.
15. Edwin Jackson (8/28 vs. MIA, 9/2 @MIL)
It’s awfully tough to trust a pitcher who averaged an ERA over six in his last two seasons as a starter, but there’s no disputing that Edwin Jackson is getting good results of late. Since July 30, Jackson has a 2.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He’s bound to come crashing back to earth at some point, but Washington is a nice place to do your pitching and his matchups this week aren’t bad.
16. Dylan Bundy (8/29 vs. SEA, 9/2 vs. TOR)
Bundy is currently on the bereavement list, but should still be able to get two starts in. He’s had a very up and down year, but has been quite good since the start of August (2.67 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.0 K/9). The Mariners and Blue Jays are both below average against right-handers, so it’s not a bad week to use Bundy.
17. Michael Fulmer (8/29 @COL, 9/3 vs. CLE)
Fulmer has had a pretty solid season, but there are some warning signs here. His 6.31 K/9 rate is among the lowest in the league, and he’s struggled to the tune of a 5.97 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his last six starts. Now he gets a trip to Coors and a matchup with the always-dangerous Indians. Owners may have no choice but to use Fulmer in many leagues, but I wouldn’t feel great about it.
18. Andrew Cashner (8/29 @HOU, 9/3 vs. LAA)
Once upon a time, Cashner was known for his elite fastball, but this year he’s fanning just 4.51 batters per nine innings, the second-lowest mark in baseball among pitchers who have thrown at least 120 innings. Still, he’s managed to post a 3.44 ERA and has been even better since the start of July. Regression seems inevitable and the Astros matchup is frightening, but at least he gets the Angels as well.
19. Mark Leiter (8/28 vs. ATL, 9/2 @MIA)
Leiter had an excellent 6.33 K/BB rate through 30 innings in Triple-A this year, but that figure has fallen to just 2.13 in the Majors. Still, Leiter has a 2.11 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 rate over 21 1/3 innings since August 5. His matchups are decent, so he’s not the worst roll of the dice.
If You’re Desperate
20. Mike Fiers (8/29 vs. TEX, 9/3 vs. NYM)
Fiers had a great little run in June (2.32 ERA) and July (2.89 ERA), but August has been a return to the old, flammable Fiers (5.97 ERA). That said, he has only given up three earned runs in his last 12 1/3 innings against the Nationals and Diamondbacks. But the Rangers and Mets are both above average offenses against right-handers, so using Fiers this week requires quite a leap of faith.
21. Mike Montgomery (8/28 vs. PIT, 9/2 vs. ATL)
Montgomery hasn’t had that many starts this season, and he hasn’t been all that effective when he has had them (4.47 ERA). But he has thrown 10 1/3 scoreless innings over his last two appearances (one start). Atlanta has been fairly tough against left-handers, but Pittsburgh is more manageable.
22. Trevor Williams (8/28 @CHC, 9/3 vs. CIN)
It’s hard to predict which Williams will show up this week, the one that just spun eight scoreless innings against the Dodgers, or the one that gave up eight earned runs in three innings in his previous start against the Cardinals. Of course, the most likely answer is something resembling his 4.40 ERA for the season.
23. Matt Moore (8/29 @SD, 9/3 vs. STL)
Moore has had an awful season, but he is working on a decent three-game stretch. Baby steps. His main appeal is two starts in pitcher-friendly ballparks, including one against the weak-hitting Padres. But I still wouldn’t have a ton of confidence that he takes advantage of the opportunity.
Just Say No
24. Luis Perdomo (8/29 vs. SF, 9/3 vs. LAD)
25. James Shields (8/29 @MIN, 9/3 vs. TB)
26. Lucas Sims (8/28 @PHI, 9/2 @CHC)
27. R.A. Dickey (8/29 @PHI, 9/3 @CHC)
28. Matt Garza (8/29 vs. STL, 9/3 vs. WAS)
29. Anthony Senzatela (8/28 vs. DET, 9/3 vs. ARI)
30. Wade Miley (8/29 vs. SEA, 9/3 vs. TOR)
31. Jaime Garcia (8/29 vs. CLE, 9/3 vs. BOS)
32. Ian Kennedy (8/28 vs. TB, 9/3 @MIN)
33. Andrew Heaney (8/28 vs. OAK, 9/3 @TEX)
34. Austin Pruitt (8/28 @KC, 9/3 @CHW)
35. Vance Worley (8/29 @WAS, 9/3 vs. PHI)
36. Jordan Zimmermann (8/28 @COL, 9/2 vs. CLE)
37. Tom Koehler (8/29 vs. BOS, 9/3 @BAL)
38. Asher Wojciechowski (8/29 vs. NYM, 9/3 @PIT)
39. Chris Flexen (8/29 @CIN, 9/3 @HOU)
40. Marco Gonzales (8/28 @BAL, 9/3 vs. OAK)
It seems like it’s good news that Perdomo has two starts at Petco — except for the fact that his ERA is actually worse at home this year…Sims was striking out over 10 batters per nine innings in the minors, but he’s K’d less than five batters per nine innings since joining the Big League club. He’ll need to improve on that if he hopes to finish anywhere close to the 3.75 ERA he had in AAA.
Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
