Fantasy Football: 3rd Year Wide Receiver Rankings

Third year wide receivers. Does it matter? Do they figure it out at that point? Does anyone really know? Well, maybe. It seems that most wide receivers find their groove in their second or third NFL season. But seeing that it’s a narrative that most people buy into, we decided to do an article on them. We’ll be taking a look at those who are entering their third year and ranking them. Not just that, but explaining why they may/may not see a bump in production.

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Going back to the draft itself and looking at those who were taken in 2015, it’s quite baffling to see some who were taken in front of others. Below is the chart of which wide receivers were selected in the top-200 in the NFL Draft.

As you can see, guys like Stefon Diggs and Jamison Crowder were steals when you look at the players who were selected ahead of them. It’s also a good reminder as to how high the expectations were for guys like DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman, and even Devin Funchess. But how would that draft look if we were to re-draft them from a fantasy perspective? Let’s go through the top-10 third-year wide receivers as we head into 2017.

1. Amari Cooper (WR – OAK)
   This shouldn’t come as any shock to those who listen into the podcast, as I’m as high as anyone on Cooper. Coming out of college, I compared him to Anquan Boldin, and nothing that I’ve seen to this point has moved me off that. He’s a top-three route runner in the league and added 10 pounds of muscle this offseason to help on the goal line. He’s going to be very good for a long time.
2. Stefon Diggs (WR – MIN)
   Say what you want about Sam Bradford, but he and Diggs were on the same page last year, connecting on 75 percent of their attempts. Keep in mind that Diggs was dinged up throughout much of the year and Bradford was traded to the team with one week to go before the season. This offseason has been one about health according to Diggs, saying that’s his No. 1 priority. If he stays healthy, he’ll be a WR2 in fantasy leagues.
3. DeVante Parker (WR – MIA)
   While he and Ryan Tannehill had interesting chemistry, it’s hard to say that Jay Cutler won’t favor a big-bodied receiver like Parker. Over his time with the Bears, Cutler produced two top-24 wide receivers twice with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Parker fits this mold and has been productive when he sees targets. In the 15 games where he’s seen five or more targets, Parker has averaged 4.4 receptions for 70.1 yards and 0.4 touchdowns, or 13.8 PPR points. Seeing him targeted on three of Cutler’s six preseason pass attempts in their first game is a great sign.
4. Jamison Crowder (WR – WAS)
   Surprisingly, Crowder led the Redskins wide receivers in touchdowns in 2016. In fact, he scored seven touchdowns, while the rest of the wide receivers combined for seven touchdowns. He’s the only familiar face to Kirk Cousins, which could make for some interesting numbers. Still, with Terrelle Pryor getting so much hype, it’s hard to see Crowder as anything more than a WR3 in fantasy. He’s shown flashes of what could be a very good wide receiver in this league.
5. Cameron Meredith (WR – CHI)
   You didn’t see Meredith on the list above, as he was an undrafted free agent picked up by the Bears after the draft. After seeing just 16 targets in his first two seasons combined, Meredith burst onto the scene in 2016 out of necessity, as both Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White were dealing with injuries. Over the final 12 games, Meredith finished as the No. 16 wide receiver in fantasy, and that’s despite seeing four or less targets in five different games. He’ll need to pass Kevin White in the pecking order to do it again, but Meredith has WR2 upside.
6. Tyrell Williams (WR – LAC)
   Similar to the aforementioned Meredith, Williams is a former undrafted free agent who saw limited targets (six to be exact) in his first two seasons. He was also forced into play due to injuries, but he succeeded even better than Keenan Allen had in years past. Williams finished the season as the No. 13 wide receiver despite having no experience in the league. The only wide receiver who finished higher than he did with fewer targets was Brandin Cooks. Great company to be in. The Chargers drafted Mike Williams with their No. 7 overall pick, making you question how much they really love the former undrafted wide receiver. Still, we’ve seen him produce at the highest level, so the potential is there.
7. Kevin White (WR – CHI)
   The red-flags are out there on White, as he was someone who was looked at as a project coming out of college. He didn’t know the full route tree and was unpolished as a wide receiver. The fact that he’s dealt with two lower body injuries doesn’t bode well for someone as explosive as he was. If he didn’t lose any of that burst, the sky is the limit, but again, it remains to be seen. With that being said, the Bears are going to see what they have in White this year, making him a great late-round fantasy pick who’ll likely see 100-plus targets. The opportunity is what puts him ahead of guys like Tyler Lockett.
8. Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)
   Some may wonder why Lockett is so low on the list, but this comes down to the injury he suffered at the end of the 2016 season. His broken leg can lead to a lot of different things, including psychological issues to overcome, as well as questions about his burst and agility. It was a gruesome injury for someone who relies on much speed as he does. We mustn’t forget, though, that he’s totaled just 135 targets in 31 games with the Seahawks. His upside is capped with that type of volume.
9. Devin Funchess (WR – CAR)
   I’ve been saying it all offseason – buy Funchess in dynasty, he’s free. After seeing him on the field for all nine snaps with the starters, the offseason reports seem to be correct. Funchess will start in two-wide receiver sets opposite Kelvin Benjamin. With Ted Ginn off to the Saints, the Panthers don’t have the downfield receiver to take advantage of Cam Newton‘s big arm, or do they? Funchess has averaged 15.6 yards per reception, which is one of the higher marks in the league. Standing 6’4″, he also has red zone ability. I mean, with 121 career targets, he’s scored nine touchdowns. Benjamin scored just seven touchdowns last year on 118 targets. Funchess’ ceiling is higher than most think.
10. Chris Conley (WR – KC)
    Well, it’s time to see what Conley is made of now that Jeremy Maclin is out of town… But will we actually get that answer in 2017? I think the answer is uncertain, because we don’t know if Patrick Mahomes starts at any point. Of all the wide receivers who were taken in this draft, it’s arguable that Conley landed on a team whose quarterback doesn’t fit his skill-set at all. That all changes with Mahomes, who has a Cutler-esque arm. Don’t write off Conley just yet.

Remaining names (11-20), in order:

J.J. Nelson
Breshad Perriman
Eli Rogers
Nelson Agholor
Adam Humphries
Jaelen Strong
Sammie Coates
Phillip Dorsett
Justin Hardy
Devin Smith

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.