Welcome to Tale of the Tape! Now a weekly event, this article will break down a handful of highlights from the NFL and translate them into fantasy football relevance. If you see a highlight worth analyzing in the future, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @FantasySensei and I may fold it into that week’s lineup!
For now, let’s get into Preseason Week 2 …
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Smokin’ Jay to Devante
This play was negated by an offensive holding, so it doesn’t show up in the box score. But it does show up here because of what it reveals about the Dolphins’ new-look passing game. With the signing of QB Jay Cutler, Miami may have finally unlocked the Devante Parker breakout we’ve been waiting for. Unlike the more conservative Ryan Tannehill, Cutler will make aggressive and risky plays – like this one – and throw the ball downfield … a lot. If the connection continues to grow, Parker may be the biggest beneficiary of Cutler’s return from retirement.
The Return of the Muscle Hamster
Doug Martin is the definition of a roller coaster ride in fantasy. He has played two full seasons (2012 and 2014) and three with 11 games or less. In ’12 and ’14, Martin posted 1,926 and 1,673 total yards respectively. In the other three seasons, he has failed to reach 600 yards. This year, he will start the season sitting three games on a substance-abuse suspension. And yet, we’re already seeing him display that agile and strong running style that has made him the No. 2 RB in fantasy before. When Martin gets on the field – and if he can stay on the field – he has easy RB1 upside.
To Be Blount … He’s Not Good
I hope you appreciated that wordplay, I worked on it for hours. Okay, not true, but the point remains. We’re talking about a 30-year-old back whose only valuable fantasy season came on the coattails of 68 red zone rushes for the Super Bowl champions. Blount is clearly not quick or crafty, and it appears the Eagles are deluded into thinking he can run stretch plays. Recent news also suggests Blount is dealing with weight issues and underperformance in practice. Do not draft Blount, who may actually get cut before the season, and do take a shot on Wendell Smallwood, who may assume the lead back role if he is.
The Last Man Leaping
Zay Jones, the second round pick of the Buffalo Bills, has gotten a lot less hype than many of his fellow rookie receivers. But in reality, he probably has the best chance of the class to be the No. 1 WR on his team. The Bills dealt away Sammy Watkins and added Jordan Matthews, but Matthews has always been better out of the slot and is currently dealing with an injured sternum. Plus, the one solid red zone threat, Anquan Boldin, just up and retired. Jones is 6’2″/210 and clearly has some jump-ball skills. While the second catch was ruled incomplete, these were two of three straight catches for Jones in a critical area of the field. The youngster has an unprecedented opportunity to lead the team in catches and touchdowns, as just about the only strong option left.
Sneak Peek into the Tennessee Future
Derrick Henry is a very good running back. Most analysts will agree he’s the best backup in football, and if he had the lead role just about anywhere, Henry would be in the RB1 conversation in fantasy. As it happens, he is playing second-fiddle to DeMarco Murray in one of the best running offenses in the game. But Murray is 29 years old and has carried the workload of a much older back. In the not unlikely scenario that Murray slows up or gets hurt, Henry could be elite – an eventuality I boldly predicted back in July. Henry’s draft price bakes in his upside, but it will still be a value if he snags the starting role.
Matty Ice Hot for Hooper
Remember when Matt Ryan had Tony Gonzalez at tight end? It was a thing of beauty. Well, since Gonzalez retired after the 2013 season, Ryan has dealt with the uninspiring Levine Toilolo and Jacob Tamme … until the latter part of 2016, when Austin Hooper emerged. You may know Hooper from his beautiful touchdown catch in the Super Bowl, but Ryan clearly knows him as something else: a reliable target. On this third-down conversion, Ryan was locked onto Hooper almost from the snap and converted to the TE under pressure. Hooper is going nearly undrafted in most fantasy leagues, but with Ryan’s trust, he could explode into TE1 territory in no time flat. Take a flier on him and thank me later.
Old QB’s New Tricks Could Boost His Receivers
To be fair, Alex Smith does know how to throw the ball downfield, it’s just not something he likes to do. That said, reports out of Kansas City are suggesting that the presence of strong-armed, explosive rookie Patrick Maholmes may be opening Smith up to a more aggressive style. And we saw it on this play. The beautiful shot down the seam to Travis Kelce may as well have been a hail mary for the dink-and-dunk specialist. While this doesn’t suddenly make Smith a QB1, it could mean good things for Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and even sleepers like Chris Conley. All would benefit from a little more fire in the Chiefs’ passing attack.
Dak to Dez – Get Used to It
I’m one of a small handful of writers in the fantasy realm that is nothing but high on Dez Bryant. This is why. He’s the best receiving-TD threat in the NFL besides Rob Gronkowski and is fully healthy after a couple injury-plagued seasons. And just as importantly, his chemistry with Dak Prescott is hitting a new level. Prescott has had nothing but glowing reviews from his star receiver, and their connection showed in Saturday’s game. As it continues to develop, Dez is nearly guaranteed to rise amongst fantasy WR1s. Don’t be surprised to see 15 touchdowns for No. 88 this year.
Goff’s Kupp Runneth Over
Yeah, basically dropping fire with these puns. And to the surprise of most, Jared Goff was dropping fire on the Oakland Raiders this week, largely courtesy of rookie WR, Cooper Kupp. The 24-year-old receiver out of Eastern Washington caught six passes for 70 yards and a touchdown on Saturday, forming a big chunk of Goff’s 16 completions for 160 yards passing. The two clearly have an established trust – as evidenced on this third-down throw where Goff was laser-focused on Kupp and his strong route – and both could thrive off it. Goff is my bold call for breakout player of the year and Kupp could hold reliable, Welker/Edelman-type PPR value with the second-year quarterback.
Matt Okada is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @FantasySensei.
