Week 3 could have gone better for DraftKings value plays, so let’s just forget that ever happened. Amazingly, we are approaching the quarter mark of the NFL season, and it is getting harder and harder to find good value, especially with the seemingly limited amount of injuries thus far.
However, there’s still a couple of low-priced guys who warrant your attention. Here are my top DraftKings value plays for Week 4.
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Quarterback
Deshaun Watson (HOU): $5,100 v. TEN
Following a stifling defensive performance against Blake Bortles in Week 2, the Titans were torched by Russell Wilson to the tune of 373 yards and four touchdowns. Now they go up against another dual-threat QB in Deshaun Watson who has impressed through two starts, averaging 21.4 points per game.
With Tom Brady going off the last two weeks, going cheap at the quarterback position hasn’t paid dividends despite some rather surprising performances from the likes of Case Keenum and Jacoby Brissett. However, this is a DraftKings value plays article, not a DraftKings “pick Tom Brady” article, so a value play is what you will get.
Among starting QBs in the Sunday only slate, only ‘Downtown’ Josh McCown, Brian Hoyer, Joe Flacco, and Case Keenum are priced lower than Watson who is $5,100. The match-up is right for Watson as he looks to continue his strong fantasy production to begin his career with the Titans ranking 30th in points allowed against QBs.
Running Backs
Javorius Allen (BAL): $4,700 v. PIT
Javorius ‘Buck’ Allen was a trendy start against the Londonville Jaguars in Week 3 but flopped as the Ravens were completely manhandled 44-7. Third-string RB Alex Collins led the team in rushing, but don’t read into that as it all came when the game was out of hand (which it was for most of the game). The hype was overblown for Buck Allen last week (7.8 points on eight carries for 15 yards and five catches for 13 yards), but it’s been underwhelming for him this week.
The Steelers are not the same team on the road as they are at home, and Buck Allen is still going to be heavily targeted on those patented Joe Flacco dump-offs. The matchup on paper doesn’t look great as the Steelers contained the Browns’ and Vikings’ run games in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. However, they were exposed against Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen in Week 3.
Even if the Steelers do tighten up that run D again, it will probably hinder Terrance West more than Allen who can still put up some nice numbers through the air. Allen is one of two RBs priced below $5K on the slate averaging more than 18 touches per game.
Lamar Miller (HOU): $4,500 v. TEN
Who’s the other guy priced under $5K averaging more than 18 touches per game? It’s Lamar Miller. To say Miller has been underwhelming this season is an understatement, but he wouldn’t be $4,500 if he were averaging 15 points per game.
Rookie D’Onta Foreman has cut into Miller’s workload a bit but hasn’t been any more productive on the ground with 21 carries for 69 yards. Despite his lowest point total of the season, Miller ran the ball better than he had been in Week 3 against the Patriots with 14 carries for 56 yards. The Titans present a good match-up for Miller to find the end zone for the first time this season.
Wide Receivers
Marqise Lee (JAC): $4,500 @ NYJ
Marqise Lee hasn’t found the end zone in the two games since Allen Robinson got injured, but he’s averaging 12.55 points per game and just over seven targets per game since the Robinson injury. In fact, Lee is the lowest-priced WR on the slate averaging at least seven targets per game. Fire him up against a Jets secondary that has allowed a big game to at least one WR every week.
Martavis Bryant (PIT): $5,400 @ BAL
This is more of a gut-call because the match-up isn’t good for Martavis Bryant nor has his performance been good so far this season. However, we all saw what happened when season-long fantasy owners decided to execute mass benchings last week of every-week starters such as Jordan Howard, DeMarco Murray, T.Y. Hilton, and Stefon Diggs. Check your fantasy league, and there’s a good chance that Martavis Bryant isn’t in a starting lineup this week.
I refuse to bench a player with Bryant’s ceiling, and rarely will you find one with a 30+ point ceiling for under $5,500. He will be lightly owned, and the blow-up potential is always there with Bryant regardless of match-up. Consider him a high-risk, high-reward selection.
Tight End
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (NYJ): $3,000 v. JAC
You might as well flip a coin when trying to figure out which TE to play outside of the few elite. ASJ made his season debut for the Jets in Week 3, and while the box score was underwhelming, he led the team with six targets.
There are a couple of reasons to like ASJ against the Jaguars who have been vulnerable to TEs through three weeks. For one, his talent is undeniable, and he’s a massive target at 6’5. He’s had an issue staying on the field because he’s never been able to keep his head on straight off the field, but the Jets threw him right into the fire in Week 3 without hesitation.
There’s also his familiarity with ‘Downtown’ Josh McCown as he played with him in Tampa. McCown has always frequented his tight ends and even turned Gary Barnidge into a Pro Bowler just two seasons ago which should honestly be enough credentials to get ‘DT’ McCown into the Hall of Fame. ASJ is a worthwhile risk if you’re going cheap at TE in Week 4.
Defense/Special Teams
Lions D/ST (DET): $2,700 @ MIN
Through three weeks, the Lions are your No. 1 scoring D/ST, and maybe it’s just me, but I am not all that confident in Case Keenum’s ability to be an above-average starting quarterback in two consecutive weeks. The Lions’ defense has been making big plays all season so ride them until they outprice themselves.
That’s it. Good luck in Week 4!
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Joey Korman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joey, check out his archive and follow him @leaveit2divac.
