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11 Early Overvalued Players (Fantasy Football)

Feb 15, 2018

It won’t be that easy for Carson Wentz to repeat his 2017 performance

Our consensus rankings are up for the 2018 season so naturally, we wanted to examine how the experts feel about certain players early on. Helping us to do that are our featured pundits below who we asked three simple questions. Which quarterback, running back, and wide receiver do you feel is the most overvalued early on based on the consensus?

It’s a question we know that people are asking so see what the experts had to say below.

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Q1. What QB is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings and why?

Carson Wentz (PHI)
“At this moment, it was somewhat of a close call between Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson, but I’ll settle on Wentz. Both had extremely high touchdown rates in 2017, to the point where regression would be expected from even the best quarterbacks of all-time. Wentz threw a touchdown pass 7.5 percent of the time, while the only one who threw them at a higher rate was Watson, at 9.3 percent. Watson can make up for some of his expected regression with his rushing ability, though he likely won’t be at full-strength when the season begins. It’s very likely that Wentz won’t even be ready for the season opener, making him way overvalued at QB4.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

“Andrew Luck is the easy answer but Carson Wentz sticks out for me at fourth overall. Wentz recently revealed that he also tore his LCL in addition to his ACL. That makes it seem iffy at best that Wentz will be ready to return by Week 1, especially with Nick Foles still under contract and the Eagles feeling little pressure after their Super Bowl win. Even if he does make it back in time for the start of the season, he’d be unlikely to run much, especially in the early going, and would likely take some time to look like his old self. At this point, he’s way too much of a risk to be valued that high.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Deshaun Watson (HOU)
“Taking Watson above the likes of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Cam Newton is cringeworthy to me. He is coming off major surgery and due for significant regression. His 243 yards per game was similar to Blake Bortles and Eli Manning. His 61.8% completion percentage was on par with Manning and Jay Cutler. The only thing that went well for him was an absurd 9.3% TD-rate which is so unsustainable that it would be wise to project him at half of that in 2018.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Drew Brees (NO)
“It seems like Brees is still living off of his big name and past production. The Saints have completely changed how they run their offense, plus this is an aging passer who isn’t even under contract at the moment. He was the 9th best fantasy QB a year ago and it’s quite possible his fantasy ranking continues to decline in 2018.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)

Q2. What RB is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings and why?

Kareem Hunt (KC)
“Some will laugh when I say this, but Kareem Hunt is going too early for my taste. While I was leading the charge to draft him at the end of the 2nd round last year, it coincided with Spencer Ware’s injury. From all reports, Ware is expected to make a full recovery and produced extremely well for Andy Reid in years past. There were times that Hunt disappeared last year, and that’s where Ware will be utilized. Hunt is still worthy of a top-30 draft pick, but as the RB5, I’m looking for value elsewhere.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Devonta Freeman (ATL)
“Running backs seem to always hit a wall when handed fat contracts and Freeman either struggled with consistency or health in 2017. He underperformed and still finished as fantasy football’s 13th best rusher, but that’s not where you drafted him to end up. He’s now being valued as the #10 back and while he could hit that, last year was proof he might not be as rock solid as we all once thought.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)

Dalvin Cook (MIN)
“Frankly, no one stands out as drastically overvalued at the running back position, but I don’t feel comfortable with Dalvin Cook at number nine. Yes, he’s an incredible talent and he should theoretically be recovered from his ACL tear, but there are always risks in recovery. And although Jerick McKinnon will almost certainly be gone, Latavius Murray has proven himself as a more-than-capable goal-line back, and new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo comes over from the Eagles where the offensive philosophy revolved around three running backs. Cook may be fully recovered, he may get goal-line work, and he may get the lion’s share of the touches, but there is enough risk there for him to be considered lower than the ninth running back off the board.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Dion Lewis (NE)
“Lewis is currently ranked as an RB2 which is far too high for me. Granted, there will be three or four rookies who pass him up, but I won’t be advising anyone to select him as a top 36 running back. Sure, he had a great run for four games, but that was cut short by James White’s emergence as the new goal-line back. The chances of Lewis starting even 8 games is small while the odds not ever being the head dog again is non-zero.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Q3. What WR is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings and why?

Adam Thielen (MIN)
“This one is rather easy for me, as Adam Thielen sits there as the WR10. If you were to go back to when his meteoric rise happened, it coincided at the exact time Pat Shurmur took over for Norv Turner as the offensive coordinator. Shurmur is now the head coach for the Giants, adding tons of questions about the projection for Thielen. On top of that, they don’t have a quarterback under contract right now. While I expect this to be rectified with a solid solution, it adds another question mark. When taking a top-10 wide receiver, you need someone who is a lock to produce.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

A.J. Green (CIN)
“I personally love Green, but he’s been held back by Andy Dalton for years. Dalton does often have tunnel vision for his top target, but Green fizzled due to injuries in 2016 and last year finished 10th despite logging a full 16 games. I still think he’s a threat to finish there again, but he’s slowly losing steam in a very loaded wide receiver position. I’m not sure you’re getting the elite value you used to at his current #6 spot.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)

Jordy Nelson (GB)
“I just can’t see drafting Jordy Nelson as if he’s a No. 2 fantasy wide receiver. There are rumors that he may be cut this offseason, but even if he stays in Green Bay, Davante Adams is clearly the top dog now. Nelson’s speed has declined dramatically, and although he could move to the slot role where his lack of speed wouldn’t be as important, it seems unlikely that he’d earn that draft price. He should be considered a middling WR3 at this point, at best.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

T.Y. Hilton (IND)
“We saw this season that T.Y. Hilton is a mediocre NFL wide receiver without a healthy Andrew Luck. He went for just 57 receptions, 966 yards and 4 scores, which is right in line with what Quincy Enunwa and Kamar Aiken did when they were number one receivers. The matter of the fact is that Luck is still dealing with shoulder issues and even if he somehow plays a full season, may never be the same again. I’m not taking such a risk with my third round pick.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for naming their overvalued players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and for more great advice, subscribe to our podcast below.

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