People typically like to save the best for last, but we’re shaking things up here at FantasyPros! I’ve already shared my tiered rankings for first basemen, second basemen, and third basemen, positions where elite players abound. Now it’s time to dissect catcher, unquestionably the weakest position in fantasy baseball.
This is a position where only one player (Gary Sanchez) was better than league average in standard 5×5 roto leagues last season — and there’s not much reason to expect that to change in 2018. But that doesn’t mean you should completely dismiss catcher on draft day. There are still values to be had here and advantages to be gained.
The key to approaching catcher is to avoid panicking and overpaying for a player who isn’t really going to move the needle for your fantasy team. Sanchez is worth an early-round pick precisely because he is a heck of a lot better than anyone else at the position. But how much better is Salvador Perez than Wilson Ramos? (spoiler: not much).
So yeah, most catchers are weak offensively, which is generally a good reason to avoid drafting a second catcher outside of two-catcher leagues. And yet, I would consider doing exactly that when it comes to Austin Barnes and Francisco Mejia, at least in leagues with deep benches. Barnes and Mejia aren’t players you’ll use on Opening Day, but they could easily finish as top-five catchers by season’s end.
As with the other positions, I’ve ranked players within the tiers as I prefer them, but if two guys are in the same tier, it’s close enough that I wouldn’t argue if you went with the guy I have ranked lower. Position eligibility isn’t an issue at catcher this year, with one notable exception: Mejia. He’s eligible at catcher to begin the year in CBS leagues, but not at Yahoo or ESPN, which each have relatively low thresholds to earn eligibility there in season. I’ve included him in the rankings to help you formulate a strategy about how to approach him.
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Tier One
Sanchez was just barely a top-70 player in standard 5×5 leagues last season, but the positional scarcity at catcher means he should be drafted well before that. In fact, as I explained in my piece on the topic, you can make a pretty good argument that Sanchez’s production has been more elite than Mike Trout‘s relative to their positional peers. The difference in value between Sanchez and the second-best catcher in 2017 (a tie between Buster Posey and Yadier Molina) was nearly as great as the difference between Posey/Molina and the eighth-best catcher, Welington Castillo. In terms of what we will get from Sanchez in 2018, a repeat of last season’s line (.278-79-33-90-2) is a pretty fair starting point. His batting average could regress a little if his strikeout rate doesn’t improve, and his 25.4 percent HR/FB rate probably isn’t sustainable. But he could also get a few more at-bats, which could mean even more run production now that he’s in an even better lineup, and he’s just 25 years old, so additional development could be in store.
Tier Two
Posey was an underrated fantasy player back when he regularly hit 20 home runs to go along with his elite batting average, but now he’s more of a safe, low-upside choice. He has hit a total of 26 home runs over the last two seasons combined, which has been a major drain on his fantasy value. Even though he posted the second-highest batting average of his career in 2017 (.320) and matched his career-high with six stolen bases, Posey was barely among the top-100 hitters in 5×5 leagues. In addition to the lack of power, Posey was hurt by paltry run and RBI totals, which could again be an issue despite the Giants’ acquisitions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria.
If I had to bet, I’d guess that Posey out-earns Contreras in 5×5 value in 2018, but Contreras is clearly the one with more upside at this point in their respective careers. While most of the catcher pool consists of grizzled veterans with at least one major flaw in their fantasy games, Contreras stands out as the catcher who is most likely to eventually match Sanchez at the top. Their profiles are quite similar in terms of both strikeout and hard contact rate, but Contreras will likely have to start hitting more fly balls to catch up to Sanchez in the home run department. As it stands, a .275-25-80 season is entirely within the realm of possibility for Contreras.
Tier Three
I don’t perceive the drop-off from tier three to tier four to be very large, so I’ll likely pass on this tier unless I get Ramos or Gattis at a good value.
Perez has been a top-11 catcher in standard 5×5 leagues for five straight seasons, but he’s never finished in the top-three at the position. Last year was likely a high water mark — he set a career high in home runs and RBIs and posted his highest batting average since 2013 — and Perez still was just the fourth-best catcher. His hard contact and flyball rates are both up the last couple seasons, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him produce another 25-HR season. Just don’t expect further improvement on last year’s numbers.
Realmuto is a poor man’s Posey. He will hit for a higher average and steal more bases than most catchers, but he’s not exactly going to be elite in either of those areas, and he’ll probably only provide about 15 home runs. His lack of run and RBI opportunities could also be even more severe than Posey’s, with the Marlins again going into full-on fire sale mode this offseason. Realmuto is a steady five-category contributor compared to other catchers, but he’s not good enough in any of those categories to justify his likely draft day price.
Ramos is looking like a nice value in drafts, going barely inside the top 200 picks. As I mentioned in my “Name Brand vs. Off Brand” piece, Ramos should produce at a similar level to Perez on a per-game basis. Ramos has more injury risk than Perez, but he also has arguably more upside. Just two seasons ago, Ramos hit .307 with 22 home runs and 80 RBIs. No, he’s not a .300 hitter, but he’d be a surefire top-three catcher if he came anywhere close to replicating that. At his draft cost, I’ll gladly take the production he can provide for however long he can provide it.
In 2016, Gattis hit 32 home runs and finished fourth at catcher in 5×5 value, just behind Ramos. But like Ramos, Gattis missed a good chunk of the 2017 season — due to both injuries and limited playing time. It will never be a given that Gattis is in the lineup every day, but with Carlos Beltran no longer in Houston, Gattis looks set to begin the season as the team’s primary designated hitter, and he should also see his fair share of starts at catcher behind his clone Brian McCann (more on him later). Very few catchers truly play every day, so if Gattis can just get around 450 at-bats, he should provide enough power and run production to finish as an upper-tier catcher. Gattis dramatically reduced his strikeout rate last year, so perhaps he can hit above .260 again, too.
Tier Four
This tier encompasses the rest of the catchers who should be starters in 12-team mixed leagues, and I’ll likely end up with one of these guys in the drafts where I don’t get Sanchez early or Ramos/Gattis at a discount.
If you’re hunting for evidence that the balls were juiced last year, just look at Molina, who belted 18 home runs after hitting a grand total of 19 over the previous three seasons combined. Molina’s hard contact rate, flyball rate, and pull percentage all jumped last year, so the power surge wasn’t just some fluke occurrence. Molina also produced his highest stolen base total since 2012 (nine), and while he didn’t have another .300 year, his .273 average was just fine for a catcher. The end result was that he tied Posey for the second-most 5×5 value at catcher. Last season was probably a best-case scenario for Molina in both HRs and SBs, but he could make up for some decline there with a higher batting average. He’s a boring choice, but those often make for good value picks.
Perhaps I’d feel differently if I owned him last year, but I’m keeping the faith with Lucroy, who had a truly abysmal 2017 season but was the best catcher in 5×5 leagues in 2016 — and second-best in 2014. Maybe he’s done, but at 31 years old, I’m willing to bet on at least a partial bounceback. I won’t sugarcoat it, though, Lucroy’s awful 22.3 percent hard contact rate and massive 53.5 percent groundball rate both readily explain why his HR toal dropped from 24 in 2016 to six last year. He never really seemed like a 20+ home run hitter to begin with, but a return to 10-15 HRs seems reasonable, and he should be able to get his batting average back into the .280-.300 range considering how rarely he strikes out and how often he hits the ball on the ground.
Castillo quietly had a career year in 2017, hitting .282 with 20 home runs in just 341 at-bats for the Orioles. Now on the south side of Chicago, Castillo is again a good bet to finish as a top-10 catcher in 5×5 leagues. He strikes out too often to give you a batting average much higher than his career .259 mark, but his high hard contact rate and flyball percentage should play well in Guaranteed Rate Field, which is a favorable park for power hitters.
It might have been best for the Grandal and the Dodgers if they had parted ways this offseason, but instead, Grandal is still in L.A. and looks set to be the team’s primary catcher when they face right-handed pitchers. He’s proven he can do quite a bit of damage in that role — he hit .250 with 20 HRs and 51 RBIs in 342 at-bats against righties last year. Austin Barnes should get most of the starts behind the plate against left-handers, but Grandal should get enough playing time to post top-12 catcher numbers. Drafting both Dodgers and playing the matchups isn’t a bad idea in leagues with daily lineups and deep benches.
Zunino hit 25 home runs in 2017, which is nothing to sneeze at for a catcher, but he also tied for the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball. He can certainly repeat the power, but if he whiffs that much again in 2018, he’s going to hit a lot lower than the .251 mark he put up last year. He’s having a really nice spring, so it won’t be surprising to see the hype train get a bit out of control here. Even with a BABIP-fueled batting average, Zunino was only the seventh-most valuable catcher in 5×5 leagues, and I expect some serious regression here. I’d honestly much prefer drafting the other catchers in this tier, but there’s a sizeable drop-off to the next tier of catchers who will start on Opening Day, so I would begrudgingly take him here if necessary.
Tier Five
With my top 12 catchers off the board in the first four tiers, this is the last tier of catchers that I would consider drafting in standard 12-team mixed leagues. Neither Barnes nor Mejia is expected to play regularly to begin the season, but they could both outperform at least half of the top 12 if given the opportunity. There’s a good chance they get that opportunity eventually, so they’re worth stashing in most leagues with deeper benches.
On a per-at-bat basis, Barnes was one of the best catchers in fantasy baseball last season. If you take his .289-35-8-38-4 line over 218 at-bats and prorate it to 500 at-bats, it looks like this: .289-80-18-87-9. That line compares favorably to the numbers that Molina, the number two catcher in 5×5 leagues, put up on 501 at-bats: .273-60-18-82-9. Barnes has displayed impressive contact skills and a high groundball rate throughout his minor and Major League career, so there’s reason to believe he can continue to hit for an average far higher than the typical catcher, and he’s the rare breed of catcher that can put up double-digit steals along with double-digit home runs. He’ll likely get most of the starts against left-handed pitchers from the get-go, and Justin Turner‘s wrist injury could open up some immediate playing time at second base as well. If Barnes is getting around four starts a week in the early going, he could quickly move ahead of Grandal and Zunino in my rankings, if not further up.
Mejia is a top-notch prospect who tore up Double-A in 2017 to the tune of a .297-52-14-52-7 line in 347 at-bats, earning a brief call-up to the Indians in September. He’ll begin the 2018 season in Triple-A, but expect to see him back in Cleveland before long. The Tribe seems perfectly content with their defensive-minded catcher duo of Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez, so they’re trying Mejia as an outfielder as another way to get him playing time with the Big League club. If Mejia continues to hit, he’ll force his way into the lineup somewhere; Michael Brantley is a constant injury risk, Yonder Alonso and Bradley Zimmer still have to prove themselves, and Lonnie Chisenhall is little more than a placeholder. It could take awhile for Mejia to earn catcher eligibility in some leagues, particularly ESPN leagues, but he could make a huge impact at a thin position down the stretch.
Tier Six
These guys shouldn’t be starters in most 10- and 12-team mixed leagues, so they generally don’t need to be drafted in those formats. But they’re worth having on speed dial in case your starting catcher underperforms or gets hurt.
McCann almost made it into tier four, but he didn’t quite make the top-12 cutoff. He failed to hit 20 home runs in 2017 for the first time since 2007, an incredible run of consistent production. That was largely due to a reduction in playing time, rather than a decline in performance, but it’s hard to expect McCann’s playing time to increase in his age-34 season. He also hasn’t posted a batting average above .242 since 2013. Despite his age, McCann is a fairly reliable option who will probably be drafted in many leagues, but his best-case scenario is to be a low-end starter at the position.
Iannetta was quite productive in limited playing time in Arizona last year, hitting .254 with 17 home runs in 272 at-bats. Now he is returning to Colorado, an even more favorable hitting environment. But before you get too excited about Iannetta, remember that this is a player who has been in the league since 2006 and has never surpassed a .264 batting average, 18 home runs, or 65 RBIs. Playing at Coors Field will unquestionably prolong Iannetta’s fantasy relevance, but he’s still not quite a player I’d want to start in 12-team leagues.
I must confess that I’m a bit of an Austin Hedges truther. I salivate when I look at his 2016 numbers in Triple-A (.326-55-21-82-1), and he did swat 18 home runs in his first full Major League season, albeit with a dreadful .214 batting average. Hedges will never be an asset in batting average, but he’s one of the better power hitters at catcher on a per-start basis despite playing half his games at Petco Park. He has a fairly low floor, but he’s the player in this tier with the most upside to rise up the rankings.
Martin used to be a fantasy mainstay, but his stolen base attempts and batting average have fallen off precipitously over the years. He could still hit 20 home runs if he manages to get 450 at-bats, but that is far from a given for a 35-year old backstop.
Chirinos is a late-bloomer who finally broke out at age 32, finishing with a .255 batting average and 17 home runs in just 263 at-bats. The power appears to be real, but the batting average was rather fortunate considering he struck out in over a quarter of his plate appearances. If Chirinos manages to get the lion’s share of the Rangers’ starts at catcher, he could be something of a sleeper for 20-25 home runs.
Tier Seven
- Tyler Flowers
- Kurt Suzuki
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Alex Avila
- Jorge Alfaro
- James McCann
- Matt Wieters
- Manny Pina
- Yan Gomes
These catchers are only worth drafting in two-catcher leagues, but the position is weak enough that any of them could conceivably work their way into standard 12-team league consideration with a hot start.
Flowers and Suzuki were both solid contributors in limited playing time last year. Flowers hit .281 with 12 home runs in 317 at-bats, while Suzuki hit .283 with 19 homers in 276 at-bats. “Limited playing time” is the key phrase, though, as Flowers and Suzuki evenly split playing time and are likely to do so again in 2018. If you owned both of them last year in leagues with daily lineups, you actually got some pretty fantastic overall numbers out of your catcher spot. Some regression is likely, however, so I would only want to consider rostering both Flowers and Suzuki in deeper daily lineup leagues.
D’Arnaud has a decent blend of contact skills and power for a catcher. I can see a repeat of last season when he hit .244 with 16 home runs, but I wouldn’t expect much more than that.
Avila was shaping up as something of a sleeper with his move to Arizona, but then the Diamondbacks announced they are installing a humidor. We can no longer count on Avila playing in a great offensive environment, and this is a player who has struck out in over 30 percent of his plate appearances for four straight seasons. He could be a major batting average drain and isn’t a great bet for more than 10 or so home runs. He does walk a lot, but that’s only really of help in OBP and points leagues.
Alfaro was really good in his first extended taste of the Major Leagues, hitting .318 with five home runs in 29 games. Unfortunately, neither his strikeout rate nor his minor league track record suggest he is anything close to a .300 hitter or 20-HR guy. He’s worth a dart throw in two-catcher leagues for the allure of the unknown if nothing else, but you should keep your expectations in check.
McCann had a solid 2017 season, hitting .253 with 13 home runs in 352 at-bats, and nothing in his profile screams regression. The Tigers’ depleted lineup will do him no favors, but he’s still a solid option in two-catcher leagues.
Wieters posted three straight seasons with at least 22 home runs from 2011-2013, but he hasn’t come close to repeating that feat since. He’ll benefit from hitting in the Nationals’ lineup, but it’s tough to expect more than 10-15 homers and a .240 batting average at this point in his career.
Pina performed quite similarly to Flowers in limited playing time last season and looks set to again be the Brewers’ primary catcher. He could be a decent contributor on a per-start basis, but some batting average regression is likely, and he shouldn’t see enough playing time to be a starting consideration in one-catcher leagues.
Gomes is now four years removed from his breakout 2014 season, and he’s failed to hit above .232 or top 14 home runs in the three years since then. He’ll also continue to share time behind the plate with Roberto Perez, and perhaps eventually Mejia, so he’s nothing more than a low-end option in two-catcher leagues.
First Baseman Rankings Tiers
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
