2018 Starting Pitcher Rankings Tiers (Fantasy Baseball)

Tiered positional rankings have been around forever as a fantasy draft strategy, but it remains a simple and effective way to decide when you should pounce on a player at a given position, and when you might be able to hold off until later. Today, let’s check out this year’s crop of starting pitchers.

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The Big Four

With Opening Day right around the corner, we’re well into peak drafting season, so by now you’ve almost certainly seen plenty written about the “Big Four.” Previously, Clayton Kershaw was in a tier of his own, but recent back issues add questions about his durability, which has allowed the others to catch up. They’re all brilliant, though, so your personal order may vary, but they’re the unquestioned top four starters entering 2018. Taking one in the first round will force you to pass on a star hitter, but with quality pitching becoming a scarce commodity, it’s a sound strategy to give yourself some peace of mind at the top of your pitching staff.

Elite with Question Marks

That’s right, we’re only two tiers in, and the question marks begin. Such is the nature of starting pitching in 2018. Any one of these guys might give you a season on par with the Big Four, but inevitably some will fall short of expectations. Unless you’re going with a strict hitter-heavy strategy in your draft, you’re probably going to want to snag one of these guys to lead your staff if you miss out on the top four.

Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner are coming off lost, injury-shortened campaigns, but the payoff could be huge if you’re willing to take the plunge. Luis Severino is the new kid on the block, coming off a breakout season, and could solidify his spot among the elite if he can come through with a repeat performance. Expect some regression, but the peripheral numbers check all the boxes.

On the other side of the spectrum, Justin Verlander is the elder statesman of the group, who looked shaky for much of the first half of 2017 before flipping on the switch and mowing down all comers on his way to a World Series championship. At age 35, there’s always the concern that this is the year things go south, but the velocity is still there, and he’s hit 200 innings 10 times in the last 11 seasons.

Robbie Ray put up brilliant numbers in 2017, but red flags include a lucky .267 BABIP, along with a 10.7% walk rate and 40.4% hard-hit rate. That said, guys who can strike out dudes at a 32.8% clip don’t grow on trees.

One might argue Aaron Nola and Jose Quintana don’t quite belong in this tier. They’re the last two I would feel fairly comfortable with leading a staff in deep formats. Quintana saw a big spike in strikeout rate last year (26.2%) without much change in swinging-strike rate (8.4%), which suggests some regression. But even if that’s the case, he’s shown a high floor his entire career, and has reached 32 starts in five straight seasons. On the other hand, Nola has yet to exceed 168 innings, but has the goods to be a fantasy ace with a full complement of starts.

What to do with Zack Greinke? He’s the major wild card here, as up until last week he was a shoo-in for this tier until spring velocity concerns and a groin injury deflated his draft stock. Following a disappointing 2016, Greinke proved his doubters wrong by putting up vintage numbers last season, and he could also benefit from the addition of the new humidor in Chase Field. He teeters between this tier and the next, but if you’re still a believer, he could ultimately prove to be an excellent value if he plummets in your draft.

Question Marks with Elite Skills

Here’s where the questions truly start to mount. On the whole, this tier encompasses high upside arms with health concerns, up-and-comers with unproven track records, and former stars coming off down seasons. Many a pitching staff will sink or swim depending on who booms or busts in this bunch.

However, amidst the wide range of outcomes in this group you can also find some safer alternatives. Dallas Keuchel still represents a high floor because of his elite ground-ball rate (66.8%) and hard-hit rate (24.7%). However, what holds him back is a borderline league average strikeout rate (21.4%), lowering the potential upside. He’s exceeded 150 strikeouts just once in his career, but the impressive batted-ball numbers means he’s also unlikely to totally bust on you.

Jeff Samardzija represents a solid floor as well, in this case in the form of innings. It’s been no secret that throwing 200 innings is a dying art, with only 15 doing so in each of the past two seasons. Samardzija has hit that threshold in five straight campaigns, and while he’s unlikely to help your ratios much, and doesn’t have the ceiling that some others names possess, there’s something to be said about locking in the strikeouts and win potential that come with that kind of workload.

On the flip side, guys like James Paxton, Lance McCullers, Alex Wood, Rich Hill, Garrett Richards, and Charlie Morton have all displayed flashy numbers on a per-inning basis when healthy, but therein lies the problem — how many innings can we really expect? There’s a huge payoff if they can stay on the field, but they’re best paired with workhorses like Chris Archer or Samardzija to give your team a higher innings floor.

The biggest unknown is none other than Shohei Ohtani. He entered Spring Training pegged as the modern day two-way star… and then they actually played some games. Ohtani has failed to impress either as a pitcher or a hitter so far, causing many to already panic and jump ship. While it’s fair to wonder if Ohtani can shake it as a major league hitter any time soon, the pitching has always been the main draw, and it’s not like all those glowing reviews from Japan evaporated in a handful of innings this spring. He’s a defacto rookie, and it’s only natural that it will take some time to adjust. His 80 ADP is starting to look a little shaky, but don’t forget he was a monster in Japan, and is still worth considering in the back half of this group.

There are Still Gems Out There

The makeup of this tier isn’t entirely different from the last, but the mean expectations begin to dip. There’s upside to be found here, though, as many of the names here are former top prospects, or players who have hinted at bigger things in small doses. Some breakouts will emerge, but the chances of hitting aren’t quite as good as the prior group.

Those Innings Have to Come From Somewhere

This crowd is mainly comprised of solid, unexciting arms. Most of these guys will provide league average numbers to help fill out rotations or reserves, although you can still always expect a few pleasant surprises — and perhaps a few unpleasant ones as well.

So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance

Our last tier incorporates veterans who have lost their luster, players working their way back from injury, or prospects who could have an impact later in the season. When in doubt, take a shot at the upside of an unproven arm or post-hype candidate over the boring retread.

First Baseman Rankings Tiers
Second Baseman Rankings Tiers
Third Baseman Ranking Tiers
Outfielder Rankings Tiers
Relief Pitcher Rankings Tiers

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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.

MLB Clayton Kershaw Chris Sale Max Scherzer Corey Kluber Stephen Strasburg Noah Syndergaard Madison Bumgarner Luis Severino Carlos Carrasco Jacob deGrom Justin Verlander Yu Darvish Carlos Martinez Chris Archer Robbie Ray Aaron Nola Jose Quintana Zack Greinke Dallas Keuchel James Paxton Gerrit Cole Masahiro Tanaka David Price Luis Castillo Jose Berrios Luke Weaver Kyle Hendricks Jake Arrieta Jon Lester Zack Godley Jeff Samardzija Lance McCullers Shohei Ohtani Alex Wood Rich Hill Johnny Cueto Trevor Bauer Garrett Richards Charlie Morton Sonny Gray Marcus Stroman Jon Gray Jameson Taillon Taijuan Walker Aaron Sanchez Blake Snell Kenta Maeda Mike Clevinger Dinelson Lamet Dylan Bundy Kevin Gausman Chase Anderson Gio Gonzalez Danny Duffy Drew Pomeranz Danny Salazar Michael Fulmer Lucas Giolito Sean Manaea Michael Wacha Tyler Chatwood Patrick Corbin Lance Lynn Tanner Roark Jordan Montgomery Julio Teheran Jacob Faria Cole Hamels Rick Porcello J.A. Happ Jake Odorizzi Ervin Santana Alex Cobb Miles Mikolas Eduardo Rodriguez Felix Hernandez Joe Musgrove Matt Harvey Marco Estrada Mike Minor Alex Reyes Hyun-Jin Ryu Walker Buehler Sean Newcomb Luiz Gohara Jack Flaherty Mike Foltynewicz Vince Velasquez Mike Leake Zach Davies Dan Straily CC Sabathia Ivan Nova Matt Shoemaker Steven Matz Michael Kopech German Marquez Adam Wainwright Jake Junis Andrew Heaney Jhoulys Chacin Tyler Mahle Reynaldo Lopez A.J. Puk Tyler Glasnow Jimmy Nelson