As we approach the end of June, the fantasy football season creeps closer and for many of you, that means you’re now starting to think about what to do this upcoming August/September on draft day. There’s no singular answer, but getting advice from experts around the fantasy football industry wouldn’t be a bad place to start. Fortunately, that’s one of our specialties here at FantasyPros.
We realize that one piece of information many will go to when doing their research is looking at average draft positions (ADP). It’s undoubtedly a great resource as it immediately gives you a sense of how your own league-mates may value players. This is where you can start creating your strategy by identifying who may be over or undervalued by fantasy owners at the moment. To help with that, we asked our featured pundits below who they feel could provide value based ADP at the moment.
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Q1. Name the QB you believe is the most undervalued according to our early QB ADP Rankings.
Marcus Mariota (TEN)
Current ADP: QB21
“Goodbye, ‘exotic smashmouth’, hello Marcus Mariota. A new regime brings along offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, who was the Rams OC last year, 2016 MVP Matt Ryan’s quarterback coach during the previous two seasons, and he’s tasked with bringing the Titans offense up to speed. This is the most talented set of skill players that Mariota has played with since entering the league and they’ll need to help him get back to his career TD rate of 4.6% after his disappointing 2017 rate of just 2.9%. A more aggressive-minded staff and positive touchdown regression lands Mariota inside my top-10 at the position.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Fantasy Fix)
“Marcus Mariota easily screams value as the QB21. His value as a runner alone puts him in the QB1 conversation. Even with a hamstring injury that limited him to three or less rushing attempts in eight of 10 games, Mariota still ran for 312 yards and five touchdowns. Where I’m most optimistic, though, is as a passer. The Titans brought in Matt LaFleur as play-caller, whose offenses have led the NFL in scoring in each of the past two seasons. LaFleur is innovative and aggressive and I think the Titans will install a bunch of run-pass option plays perfectly catered to Mariota’s skill set.”
– Jody Smith (FantasyPros)
Mitch Trubisky (CHI)
Current ADP: QB26
“As of now, it’s criminal that Trubisky is down the list at No. 26. It’s almost as if people forgot that he was throwing to Josh Bellamy as his top receiver and that Dion Sims was his starting tight end. Did they also forget that vanilla John Fox was his head coach? Well, here’s the catch-up lesson: Offensive-minded Matt Nagy was brought in as the head coach, while Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Anthony Miller, and Taylor Gabriel were brought in for a complete overhaul to the pass-catching group. Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo is being taken as a top-eight quarterback. Did you know that Trubisky had just as many 18-point games as Garoppolo (two) from Week 13-on, which was when Garoppolo took over as the starter for the 49ers? Remember, Trubisky did that with little help. Even if his passing totals aren’t up to par, his rushing totals will carry him into the top-18, as he racked up at least 44 rushing yards in three of the last nine games. Don’t forget that Trubisky was one of the top athletes among quarterbacks just one year ago. I’d also mention Andy Dalton as someone who’s extremely undervalued.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Philip Rivers (LAC)
Current ADP: QB15
“One of the most undervalued QBs in the fantasy world is with no doubt, Philip Rivers. His consistency has been outstanding, finishing at least as a top 12 QB in eight of the last ten seasons. His ADP probably will not rise because of Hunter Henry‘s injury, but there are enough weapons around him to produce QB1 numbers. If Keenan Allen has top 3 potential, I bet it’s not because we are expecting him to catch passes from Geno Smith or Cardale Jones, right?”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)
Q2. Name the RB you believe is the most undervalued according to our early RB ADP Rankings.
Sony Michel (NE)
Current ADP: RB26
“It’s Michel for me, as most believe that you can’t trust a Patriots running back. Tell that to those who rode Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis to DFS success last year. When you look at the Patriots running backs who have come and gone over the last few years (Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, LeGarrette Blount, Mike Gillislee), you’ll notice that none of them were running backs who could ‘do it all.’ Outside of Saquon Barkley, there wasn’t a more complete running back in the draft class, as Michel is someone who will walk into the NFL as a top-10 pass-blocking running back and someone who can play all three downs. When the Patriots spend a first-round pick on a running back, you should pay attention. 75 percent of top-six running backs in fantasy football come from top-12 scoring offenses. Well, the Patriots have been a top-12 scoring offense since 2001. ”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Royce Freeman (DEN)
Current ADP: RB33
“Don’t be afraid to draft rookie RBs. Royce Freeman will have one of the most favorable fantasy situations. The Broncos let go of C.J. Anderson, leaving 245 carries available on the team. Some assume the Broncos believe in Devontae Booker; but come on, he was unable to win the starting job in 2017. Yes, there will be a competition, but I think Freeman has enough talent to establish himself as the starting RB. His price right now as RB33 is shouting value.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)
Alex Collins (BAL)
Current ADP: RB20
“Collins finished last season as the RB16 but didn’t even command double-digit carries until Week 5. He also scored six touchdowns in Baltimore’s final seven games and enters 2018 as the starter for an offense that made a ton of significant upgrades in the passing game. I think Collins has a good shot at RB1 numbers and is a tremendous bargain at his current RB20 price tag.”
– Jody Smith (FantasyPros)
Jerick McKinnon (SF)
Current ADP: RB15
“Combining the tantalizing upside of Jerick McKinnon with one of the most exciting play-callers in the league for running backs in Kyle Shanahan has had the fantasy industry buzzing since the 49ers signed McKinnon to a bell-cow offer in March. Shanahan has said that he got ‘lost watching him on tape, thinking about all the things we can do with him.’ In full PPR he’s a second rounder who often mistakenly slips to the early third. I’m bullish on his floor and upside this year, and have him as my RB10, five spots higher than the ECR.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Fantasy Fix)
Q3. Name the WR you believe is the most undervalued according to our early WR ADP Rankings.
Chris Hogan (NE)
Current ADP: WR35
“After playing nearly 91% of the snaps and hauling in five scores in the teams first eight games, Chris Hogan missed most of the season’s second half due to a shoulder injury. His 6-128-1 performance in the Super Bowl was much needed for New England because of Brandin Cooks‘ early exit, and with both Cooks (114 targets) and Danny Amendola (86) in new spots for the 2018 season, New England has 200 targets up for grabs. Assuming Julian Edelman would eat 100+ of those made sense, but his pending suspension leaves that very much in doubt. Early ADP on Chris Hogan was too low to begin with and is slowly climbing. The ECR has him as the WR35, 15 spots lower than I have him.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Fantasy Fix)
Jamison Crowder (WAS)
Current ADP: WR40
“After the Redskins traded for Alex Smith, I knew I’d be high on Crowder. My interest only grew fonder when the Redskins brought in Paul Richardson, who should help stretch the field and open things underneath for Crowder. Smith doesn’t like throwing into tight windows, as evidenced by NFL’s NextGenStats that show a league-low 12 percent of his throws went to a wide receiver with one or less yard of separation. While Richardson and Josh Doctson were mediocre at separating, Crowder averaged 3.2 yards of separation, which ranked eighth among wide receivers in 2017. He’s currently the WR40 in ADP, which is his absolute floor given he’s already finished inside the top-40 in each of the last two seasons.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Kenny Stills (MIA)
Current ADP: WR54
“Everyone assumes that Parker is going to be the main benefactor of Jarvis Landry’s available targets, but I’d much rather take Kenny Stills three or four rounds later. Stills has simply been better than Parker in back-to-back seasons and is coming off of consecutive top-30 wide receiver finishes. Stills is one of my favorite value picks of 2018.”
– Jody Smith (FantasyPros)
Rishard Matthews (TEN)
Current ADP: WR61
“Matthews is being selected as the WR61 and I am having a hard time understanding why. He is going to be a featured receiver in what seems is going to be a better Tennessee offense. Matthews was consistent in 2016 despite Mariota’s troubles and was the third most targeted in the red zone. He may have enough targets to be a WR2/WR3. even if Corey Davis has a breakout season.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)
Thank you to the experts above for naming their undervalued players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and check out our latest podcast below for more fantasy advice.
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