Like a lot of fantasy footballers, I am a mock draft machine when it comes to my draft prep. I used to utilize Yahoo or ESPN mock draft lobbies, but those were only good for mapping out the first few rounds, assuming you didn’t get “that guy” taking Justin Tucker with the first overall pick. People would get bored after the first three or four rounds and leave, letting the algorithms Yahoo and ESPN have in place auto draft the rest.
Nothing against those sites, but it’s not realistic. Auto-drafted teams pick all their starters, then fill the bench. Most leagues won’t have QBs, TEs, and defenses taken super early, so it doesn’t give you a good feel for how a draft is going to play out.
Enter the FantasyPros Draft Simulator. Defenses and kickers were taken in the last round, and there were reaches for players, along with players who fell. You can customize league scoring settings, roster configurations, number of teams, and even whether you want to “draft against” experts. It was a new experience, and it’s incredibly beneficial and intuitive. I’d recommend everyone do it.
View real time recommendations for each pick with our Draft Assistant
Two weeks ago I mocked from the third slot. Last week I ran through the eighth pick. Today, I’m going to run through a draft from the 12th position to see realistically what a team could look like drafting from the turn. A lot of people like drafting last because it gives them two top-13 players. I’m not the biggest fan of this slot as I feel like I have to reach for too many of the guys I want, but you can win from any draft position so let’s see what happens.
Rounds 1 & 2: Kareem Hunt, Julio Jones
Pretty straightforward here. Took the two best players available and gave myself a high-end base to start my WR and RB positions. I’d would have liked Melvin Gordon to fall instead of Hunt, but I’m happy to get my third-ranked wide receiver at the WR4 price.
Rounds 3 & 4: Amari Cooper, Derrius Guice
Cooper is one of the biggest wild cards for me and a guy I continuously waffle on. Today I’m on him. Michael Crabtree, who has averaged 131 targets over the last three seasons, is finally gone and it’s the 24-year-old Cooper’s time to shine despite the additions of a washed up Jordy Nelson and headcase Martavis Bryant.
Guice is a guy I’ve drafted in the previous two mocks and pretty much everywhere else. If you hadn’t read the last two mocks, here’s what I had to say about him:
“I’m happy with Guice, who some considered the best running back in the draft after Saquon Barkley. Samaje Perine looked horrible last season and they invested a second-round pick in the rookie rusher. I have to believe they will feature him in the offense. Chris Thompson is a dynamic pass catcher out of the backfield, but as Michael Salfino noted for Yahoo, 86% of a running back’s expected value comes from first and second down and goal line work. Guice would seem to fill both of those roles for the Redskins, and he is one of my main targets as we start to get into the middle rounds.”
This is a little earlier than I’d prefer to take him, but picking at the turn forces your hand in reaching for guys you like. Guice is a guy I like.
Rounds 5 & 6: Russell Wilson, Dion Lewis
Two of my favorite fifth round targets, C.J. Anderson and Mark Ingram, get taken right before my pick, and I’m left with some choices that make me very unhappy. I end up taking Wilson and Lewis. Two reaches, in my book, but the available wide receivers and non-Lewis running backs that I know will fall to me in the next round are all in a similar tier.
I grab what should be a lock for a top-five quarterback in Wilson and then a little more controversial pick in Lewis. Derrick Henry is there, but I don’t see the Titans giving him a good-sized contract to have him play second fiddle. Lewis’ secondary stats in New England were off the charts (third in YPC, 10th in runs of 15 yards or more, sixth in evaded tackles). He isn’t a downfield receiving threat, but his elusive running makes him a weapon in the passing game, too.
Rounds 7 & 8: Emmanuel Sanders, DeVante Parker
I’d have liked Pierre Garcon to fall to me, but I’m happy with both of these guys to compete for my WR3 spot. Parker has disappointed fantasy owners every season, but he should see a massive spike in targets following Jarvis Landry’s departure for Cleveland. Sanders was a WR2 for three straight seasons before an injury-ridden 2017. With an upgrade at quarterback, there’s no reason why he can’t return substantial WR3 numbers at the worst.
Rounds 9 & 10: Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Reed
I’ve had either Aaron Jones or Jamaal Williams on every single team I’ve drafted so neither of them falling to me is a buzzkill. I go with a guy in Benjamin whose only competition for targets is second-year receiver Zay Jones, who is coming off a miserable rookie season, and tight end Charles Clay. He’s not going to have WR1 upside, but I’m looking for a reliable WR3 or flex bye-week filler, and Benjamin fits the bill perfectly with his projected volume.
Reed, on the other hand, is the exact opposite. He has overall TE1 upside if he can somehow manage to stay healthy. With the tight end position being fairly easy to fill via waivers, I’ll take the chance in the 10th round on Reed being a league winner.
Rounds 11 & 12: Ty Montgomery, Nyheim Hines
As I noted above, I’ve had a Packers RB on every team I’ve drafted so far. I can’t stay away from Aaron Rodgers. Montgomery probably isn’t going to be the traditional running back, but he is a huge threat out of the backfield in the passing game, and we saw early last season what sort of upside he possesses if he gets the majority of the touches. Even if he grabs the reins and gets hurt after a few weeks as a lead back, the pick is worth it here because of his stand-alone flex appeal.
Hines is a 100% home run pick with Marlon Mack ahead of him in the depth chart, but with two receivers already on my bench and three established running backs in the starting roster I’m chasing upside at this point in the draft. Hines possesses big-play ability and might be better suited for the best ball format, but if he can take the job from Mack, he’d have tremendous value, especially if Andrew Luck is healthy.
Round 13: James Conner
Talk about home-run picks. Conner is probably a complete waste of a draft choice here, but what am I realistically hoping for out of the 156th pick? If Le’Veon Bell follows through on his threat and misses even two games, Conner likely becomes the most valuable 13th-round pick. Two games of a locked-and-loaded high RB2 at the worst is worth it here. And if Bell looks like he’s going to play? Most of your targets (or similar) from this round will be available to pick up anyway.
Rounds 14/15: Defense and Kicker
Some players like to draft lotto tickets here, and if you’re drafting early, that’s an excellent idea. But for most, this is where you take your defense and your kicker. For kicker, grab one on a high-scoring offense. For defenses, it’s not a bad idea to look at the schedule and get out ahead of the streamers and find a good Week 1 or 2 matchup.
In the middle rounds, I was thinking to myself “okay, this looks like every other team I’ve drafted,” but when it’s all said and done I’m looking at something entirely different. As I said in my previous mocks, ultimately my goal in every season is to make the playoffs and see what happens. The randomness of H2H leagues means any team can win once you get there. I came away with a top-two QB, a solid stable of starting running backs, high-volume WRs, and tons of upside in my tight end and bench slots. In-Season management is the key, but this team should be more than set me up to make a solid run.
You can try out the Draft Simulator here, and feel free to share with me. I’d love to see what you can come up with from the 12th slot.
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Ryan Melosi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive and follow him @RTMelosi.