Numbers matter in fantasy football. There’s no denying that. Passing yards are measured in numbers. Receiving TDs are measured in numbers. Rushing yards, receptions, interceptions, rushing TDs – that’s right, all numbers. The most important fantasy number is points scored. Score more than your opponent and you win. Score even a fraction of one point less and you lose. 

In fact, numbers don’t just matter in fantasy football. They are everything. Fantasy owners can read the box score of every game every week, but that doesn’t always tell the whole story. Numbers without context are meaningless. Some numbers matter more than others, some are good predictors of future behavior, some are fluky and hard to consistently forecast, and others simply reinforce what our eyes already tell us about a certain player. 

Every week, I’ll highlight some of the most important numbers and explain why they matter, why you should care, and how you can apply these numbers to in-season strategy. Week 1 is just about to kick off, so I’ll share five important numbers to consider before any games have been played. Let’s get started!

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8.6 – The average number of games played by an RB following the season in which he led the league in total touches

You might have wondered how many total touches really matter to RBs, their durability, and their future success. I wondered the same thing, so I dug into the stats of the league’s RB touch leaders over the last five seasons and how many games they played the next year. Here are your touch leaders and their following year games played:

 
Of the five RBs I looked at, Johnson, Peterson, and Foster all failed to finish the season due to injury, Murray split time in an odd Chip Kelley experimental offense in Murray’s lone season in Philly, and Shady was the only player to lead the league in touches and then start all 16 games the following season. The backs that lead the league in touches played an average of only 8.6 games the following season, started an average of only 7.2 games, and finished with a 62.8 average fantasy position rank.

Why should I care?

Le’Veon Bell led the league in total touches in 2017 with 406, the most of his career. In 2014, Bell had the second most touches of his career with 373. The following season, he played in only six games due to a torn MCL. Bell is currently ranked as the second-overall player in our ECR, and owners may want to be wary of how much work he can sustain this season after such a monster workload in 2017. To add to the injury concerns, Bell may not be in game shape Week 1 as he has still not reported to the Steelers while holding out for a new contract. The numbers tell us that expectations should be tempered for Bell in 2018.

94 – Russell Wilson‘s total TDs over the last three seasons

Surprisingly, Russell Wilson led the league in total TDs last season. This was so surprising because he played behind the NFL’s 27th ranked offensive line and had no semblance of a running game. Wilson was the team’s leading rusher with 586 yards, while the top RB on the team, Mike Davis, finished the season with only 240 yards. In fact, the Seattle RBs combined for a grand total of one rushing TD. Wilson had three. He accounted for 37 of the team’s 38 total offensive TDs, good for 97.3%. The TDs and TD percentage both lead the NFL last year.

Why should I care?

Wilson’s 94 total TDs over the last three seasons rank fourth among QBs in that time. Tom Brady, unsurprisingly, ranks first with 99, and Cam Newton and Drew Brees are tied for second with 97 each. After Wilson, Aaron Rodgers is a close fifth, racking up an impressive 92 total TDs over the last three seasons despite missing nine games in 2017. It’s no wonder that our ECR currently has the top four QBs as Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton. Brees is ranked sixth behind Deshaun Watson. Wilson’s numbers have been reliable for fantasy purposes despite Seattle’s often unexplosive offense in real life. Expect his fantasy production to get a bump this season with a slightly improved offensive line and an improved running game.

Cam Newton’s inclusion in this group really stood out to me. I’ve expressed my displeasure in drafting him here and here, but the production is undeniable. His situation will only improve in 2018 with new OC Norv Turner, the return of his favorite target Greg Olsen, and the addition of talented rookie wideout D.J. Moore. Brady has some production concerns with a decimated cast of receivers and backs around him, but his talent still makes him a clear top-5 QB. Brees’ 23 passing TDs in 2017 were a 14-year low for the future HOFer despite his record completion percentage and efficiency, so expect those numbers to improve this season.

11.5 – Rob Gronkowski’s Career Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG)

I don’t need to reiterate how dominant a force Rob Gronkowski has been since he entered the league in 2010. His 7,179 receiving yards and 76 receiving TDs are both top among TEs during that time. His career 11.5 FPPG in Standard scoring is easily the most among the TEs being drafted in the top-12 this year. The top-4 TEs in career FPPG being taken in this year’s draft are listed below.

1. Rob Gronkowski – 11.50
2. Jimmy Graham – 9.04
3. Travis Kelce – 8.15
4. Jordan Reed – 7.90

His FPPG are impressive when stacked up against the competition, and they are even more impressive in PPR scoring. Here are the top-4 TEs in career FPPG being taken in this year’s draft.

1. Rob Gronkowski – 16.16
2. Jimmy Graham – 13.64
3. Jordan Reed – 13.24
4. Travis Kelce – 12.95

Why should I care?

Gronk is easily the highest-scoring TE in FPPG among this year’s TEs, so health should be your only concern when deciding if he is worth his current second-round price tag. His per game numbers are fantastic, and he is a league-winner any time he’s healthy. Travis Kelce has finished in the top-5 TEs in Standard and PPR each of the last three seasons, finishing as the overall TE1 once in that time. He’s sure to produce, even with a new and inexperienced QB and the addition of Sammy Watkins. Jimmy Graham has been a close second to Gronk in receiving yards, receiving TDs, and FPPG since entering the league the same season as Gronk. He’s being drafted in the top five at his position this year despite joining Aaron Rodgers in an offense that has not been TE-friendly in recent years.

Jordan Reed‘s position on both of these lists surprised me a bit, probably because he has missed 28 games in his five NFL seasons. When healthy, he can produce at an elite level, and if you want to take a gamble on him, he’s currently being drafted as the TE9 in Standard and the TE10 in PPR. He’s dealing with offseason toe surgery, so keep an eye on that before Washington’s Week 1 matchup with the Cardinals.

14.2 – The average finish for a D/ST the year following a season in which it was the overall DST1.

Let’s take a look at the top overall D/STs over the last five seasons. 

• 2012 Chicago Bears – Following year finish: D/ST23
• 2013 Kansas City Chiefs – Following year finish: D/ST18
• 2014 Philadelphia Eagles – Following year finish: D/ST11
• 2015 Denver Broncos – Following year finish: D/ST5
• 2016 Minnesota Vikings – Following year finish: D/ST14

The only D/ST to finish first overall in scoring one year and then finish inside the top-five the following season was the Denver Broncos, which finished as the D/ST1 in 2015 and the D/ST5 in 2016.

Why should I care?

One of the biggest stories in the NFL and the fantasy community was the “Sacksonville” defense. The Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST finished as fantasy’s best in 2017 in a season that saw the Jags nearly knock off New England in an exciting AFC Championship. The Jags’ defense was explosive and exciting last year, and the 203.0 fantasy points put up by the Jacksonville D/ST was the fifth-most in a single season since 2012.

I’ve always advocated for taking a D/ST in the last two rounds of a draft and then streaming as needed (for some early-season streaming options, you can check out this article). Since 2012, no D/ST has finished as the overall D/ST1 two years in a row, and I don’t think Jacksonville will buck that trend. The Jags D/ST is currently ranked first at its position with an ADP in the ninth round. That’s way too early. Jacksonville defenders have been chirping in the offseason, especially Jalen Ramsey who has let loose on seemingly every player in the league. That’s never a good sign.

Jacksonville lost to Tennessee twice last year in a down year for the Titans, and they will have to play both Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck twice. Those are six games off the bat that could be problematic for Jacksonville, and they have three other challenging games against Philadelphia, New England, and Pittsburgh. Considering the average finish of top D/STs over the last five seasons, Jacksonville players’ overblown sense of confidence, and a more difficult schedule expect “Sacksonville” to not live up to their lofty 2018 hype.

4 – The number of WRs who have averaged at least 150 targets and 100 receptions over the last three seasons

Only four WRs have averaged at least 150 targets and 100 receptions over the last three seasons. They are listed below.

 
Antonio Brown and Julio Jones topping this list should surprise no one. They are arguably the two best receivers in the league with some including Odell Beckham in that conversation. Larry Fitzgerald has been the model of consistency throughout his career, and he continues to excel heading into his 15th season. In fact, the three highest reception totals of his career have come in his most recent three seasons. Jarvis Landry‘s name may come as a surprise, but he, like Fitzgerald, has been as consistent as they come in Miami, and he even lead the league in receptions in 2017. 

Why should I care?

You’re obviously going to draft Antonio Brown and Julio Jones among the top four receivers, but it’s worth noting just how dominant these guys have been in their careers. AB has lead the league in targets per game, receptions per game, and receiving yards per game over the last three seasons. He’s been the WR1 in Standard or PPR four out of the last five seasons. Julio Jones is the NFL’s all-time leader in receiving yards per game for his career (95.3). Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown are second and third on that list. 

It’s also worth noting that DeAndre Hopkins leads the NFL in total targets over the last three seasons (517), but he missed the cut on this list, averaging 95 receptions per season. Demaryius Thomas also averaged more targets than both Landry and Fitz over the last three seasons, but only averaged 93 receptions. That said, Larry Fitzgerald is ranked as the WR11 by our ECR in PPR scoring, and Jarvis Landry is ranked as the WR17. Landry is ranked behind Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and Adam Thielen. None of those players will hit even 130 targets this season, so Landry is undervalued here.

In terms of ADP, Fitz is being taken as the WR14 at pick 32, while Landry is going as the WR17 at pick 38. Fitzgerald is a solid pick in the third round, and Landry is a steal in PPR formats in the fourth round. He opens the season in Cleveland on a team that will likely throw the ball a lot with Josh Gordon‘s status uncertain, and with a great preseason in the books.

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That’s it for this week, guys. Next week, I’ll hit you with some of the most interesting and relevant numbers from Week 1 of the NFL season. Thanks for reading, and good luck to everyone in your first fantasy matchup of the new campaign!

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Zachary Hanshew is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.