Following last season’s offensive breakthrough by the Eagles and Rams, football prognosticators across the land were on the lookout for the next breakout offense, and the Chicago Bears were a logical contender. With Chiefs’ offensive guru Matt Nagy replacing uncreative, defensively-minded head coach John Fox, and number two overall draft pick Mitchell Trubisky entering his second season as the team’s quarterback, it was easy to see why.
Chicago didn’t look anything like a breakout offense through the first three weeks, as Trubisky struggled mightily, averaging under 200 yards passing per game and throwing more picks (3) than touchdowns (2). But in Week 4, the Bears awoke from hibernation. Trubisky threw for over 350 yards and six touchdowns in Chicago’s dominant victory over the Buccaneers, spreading the wealth to five different receivers. Two players who weren’t in very many fantasy lineups, Tarik Cohen and Taylor Gabriel, accounted for the biggest fantasy days.
Going forward, this is an offense that fantasy managers simply have to be interested in, although major questions remain. Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, and Jordan Howard were expected to be the primary fantasy assets in this offense, but Robinson and Burton each had just two catches on four targets against Tampa Bay, while Howard — who would typically be heavily utilized in clock-killing mode — got nine fewer touches than Cohen in a game the Bears were winning by 35 points at halftime.
The decision to feature Cohen and Gabriel may well have been game-plan specific, but time will tell. Howard seems like a good buy-low candidate, but there is some risk that Nagy decides the offense is more effective with a pass-catching back like Cohen in the backfield. Similarly, it seems safe to say that Robinson and Burton will see more consistent looks going forward, but Chicago may have too wide a target tree to allow either of them to become elite fantasy options.
As for Trubisky, the potential to be a QB1 is obvious, and he should be picked up just about everywhere. But I’d like to see another big performance or two before I consider him an every-week starter.
One thing is clear, though: this will be a fascinating offense to watch going forward. Here are nine more things we learned in Week 4.
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The Titans had an offensive explosion of their own
Besides the Bears, another popular pick for breakout offense of 2018 was the Titans, who similarly brought in an offensive mastermind to guide a young up-and-coming quarterback. Rams offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur was brought in to run the offense for new head coach Mike Vrabel — and rescue Marcus Mariota from former Titans coach Mike Mularkey’s “exotic smashmouth” scheme.
Like Chicago, Tennessee got off to a dreadful start offensively, although in this case, it was largely due to injury. Mariota suffered through a nerve issue in his elbow that led to numbness in his hand, causing him to miss one game and play ineffectively in part-time duty in two others.
But Mariota finally looked healthy in Week 4, and the results were highly encouraging for fantasy owners. Mariota threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 46 yards and another score, putting himself back into QB streaming consideration. But the biggest beneficiary from a fantasy perspective was talented second-year wideout Corey Davis, who hauled in nine catches on 15 targets for 161 yards and a touchdown. Davis, who was as popular a breakout candidate as the Titans’ offense as a whole, suddenly looks like an every-week WR2 with upside.
Mariota’s breakthrough is also excellent news for Taywan Taylor, who no longer has to compete with Rishard Matthews to push for WR3/flex value. And although Titans RBs Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry each had relatively quiet games, they should both ultimately benefit from an offense that is creating more scoring opportunities.
Reports of Andrew Luck‘s demise have been greatly exaggerated
Sometimes we all fall prey to narrative street, and it looks like that may have been the case with Andrew Luck. Colts head coach Frank Reich’s decision to sub out Luck for Jacoby Brissett for a last-gasp Hail Mary in Week 3 seemed to speak volumes about the health of Luck’s throwing arm, and the stats certainly bore out that he wasn’t throwing the ball downfield with any regularity. What we didn’t know, though, was whether Luck couldn’t throw the deep ball, or whether he was simply throwing shorter passes because of the team’s game plan and protection issues on the offensive line.
Well, in Week 4 Luck proved that he can still throw down the field. Luck, who entered Week 4 with the lowest yards-per-attempt in the NFL, posted a healthy 7.5 yards per attempt in Week 4, connecting with T.Y. Hilton on two 40+ yard completions and staying in the game to throw the Hail Mary this time. He finished with 464 passing yards and four touchdowns.
From a fantasy perspective, the best news for Luck owners may simply be how often he is throwing the football. The Colts have no running game to speak of, and while their defense has played better than expected, it is hardly dominant. That has led Luck to throw 186 times through four games, a number that trails only Kirk Cousins among NFL quarterbacks.
It may be wise to keep Luck on your bench for Thursday night’s contest with the Patriots to see how his arm responds on a short week, and how he is able to manage without Hilton, who will likely sit out with a hamstring injury. But Luck did a lot to silence the doubters in Week 4, and gave his fantasy owners plenty of reason to feel optimistic about his rest-of-season outlook.
The Patriots’ backfield has been simplified, and that’s a good thing for fantasy owners
There is usually fantasy value to be found in New England’s backfield, the challenge is figuring out who is going to provide it in any given week. But that challenge became quite a bit simpler when Rex Burkhead was placed on injured reserve last week.
With Burkhead out of the picture, the path has been cleared for both Sony Michel and James White to produce RB2 value, as I explained in last week’s Running Back Roundup. That’s precisely what we saw in Week 4, and both Michel and White went over 100 yards from scrimmage and reached the end zone (twice in White’s case).
We’ve seen before that the Patriots are a potent enough offense to produce two fantasy viable RBs, and we’re seeing it again. Michel will continue to grind out yards between the tackles while White does most of his damage in the passing game, and both will belong in most fantasy lineups on a weekly basis.
The Dolphins mysteriously refuse to play Kenyan Drake
While the Patriots’ backfield was shaping up exactly how fantasy owners hoped, their Week 4 opponents continued their mystifying use — or lack thereof — of third-round fantasy pick Kenyan Drake. For the second game in a row, Drake was given five or fewer carries. Meanwhile, 35-year-old Frank Gore, who is on the tail end of his career and presumably returned to Miami for his swan song, was given 11 carries.
We are now a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and the time to expect Dolphins coach Adam Gase to come to his senses is over. I’m not sure what Drake did to deserve so much time on the sidelines, but the bottom line is that we simply can’t trust Gase to use Drake the way that fantasy owners envisioned on draft day. Until we see Drake consistently receive 15-20 touches, he is nothing more than a flex option — and a dicey one at that.
The Seahawks RB carousel continues to twirl
Just when it looked like Chris Carson would be safe to deploy as an RB2 going forward, Carson surprisingly sat out Week 4 with a hip injury. In his place, it was Mike Davis — not Rashaad Penny — who delivered a huge game, as Davis handled 25 touches for 124 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, the matchup against Arizona was favorable, but Davis delivered in a big way.
Carson’s ailment does not seem like a long-term issue, but we are now back to square one with this backfield. Pete Carroll spoke in glowing terms about Davis’ performance, but then again Carroll has also spoken glowingly about Carson (and just about every other player on the Seahawks’ roster, for that matter).
We won’t have a great feel for how the workload will be split up between Carson and Davis until Carson returns. If one of them is given bell cow usage, that player can be a weekly RB2 based on how well the Seahawks are running the ball. The one thing that is clear is that Penny is currently third in line, and that makes him droppable in most formats.
Tyler Boyd is an early contender for waiver wire pickup of the year
If there was a Bengals receiver not named A.J. Green that was being hyped coming into the season, it was 2017 first round pick John Ross. But while Ross did manage to score his second touchdown of the season on Sunday, it only became clearer that Tyler Boyd is fast becoming the 1B to Green’s 1A in this offense.
Boyd hauled in 11 of his 15 targets for an even 100 yards against Atlanta, and he has now produced at least 91 receiving yards in three straight contests. And with Tyler Eifert suffering a season-ending injury, Andy Dalton will need to lean even more heavily on Boyd. He has quickly ascended into every-week WR2 status, and should be treated like the Bengals’ version of Will Fuller.
The Jaguars’ receiving corps is murky, but Dede Westbrook is emerging
Keelan Cole seemed like the Jaguars receiver to own heading into Week 4, but it was Donte Moncrief and Dede Westbrook who posted 100-yard receiving games against the Jets. Moncrief was the one who scored a touchdown, but it’s Westbrook who may be the most promising Jaguars receiver going forward, both because of his talent level and the fact that his 13 targets dwarfed the competition.
Cole, Moncrief, and Westbrook all played roughly the same number of snaps in Week 4, but Westbrook’s involvement on 74 percent of the snaps was a season-high. There is still much to be decided here, and Jacksonville may not throw enough for any of their receivers to attain weekly WR2 status. But if I had to own only one of these guys right now, it just might be Westbrook.
Jared Cook is a top-tier tight end, whether we like it or not
Cook has been a fantasy tease for much of his 10-year NFL career, looking like he was on the verge of superstardom one week and then completely disappearing the next. The days of dreaming about Cook’s potential greatness are long gone, but with 110 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, he has now put together two massive games in four to begin the year.
Even if Cook will never be confused for Tony Gonzalez, he has quietly settled in as one of the more reliable options at a severely thin position. You can count on one hand the number of tight ends with the potential to see 10+ targets in any given week, and right now Cook is one of them. That makes him a top-10 tight end every week going forward, regardless of matchup.
Life goes on for the 49ers without Jimmy G
The 49ers may have fallen just short of victory against the Chargers, but San Francisco fans and fantasy owners alike can at least feel a little bit better about this team putting points on the board with C.J. Beathard under center. Beathard didn’t play a perfect game, but he did throw for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns and gave San Francisco a chance to win.
Beathard also provided hope that several 49ers can maintain some value in fantasy leagues. George Kittle isn’t going to run wide open down the middle of the field for an 82-yard touchdown every week, but he can be a high-volume receiver and red zone target, which should be enough for TE1 value. And Matt Breida should be able to run the ball well enough and catch enough passes out of the backfield to stay in the low-end RB2 conversation. Whether Beathard can do enough to salvage some WR2/3 value for Marquise Goodwin remains to be seen, but the two did have their moments playing together last season.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
