Fantasy players can only hope immense backfield confusion clears up during the season. There’s cause for optimism after seeing two prolific offenses turn to rushers now capable of rounding out the campaign as legitimate RB1 options.

Week 4 also, however, saw Mike Davis, Ito Smith, and Nick Chubb shine while Dalvin Cook, Kenyan Drake, Isaiah Crowell, and LeSean McCoy (again) delivered duds. This week’s snap-count analysis features some seemingly stable starters stumbling and losing some playing time in the process. Is it time to panic, or should managers exude patience? Let’s break down some of Sunday’s interesting developments and try to predict what the future holds.

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Chicago Bears

 
Jordan Howard progressed as a three-down back to start the season. He stockpiled 64 touches to Tarik Cohen’s 21 over three games with more receptions (10) than his diminutive teammate (seven). So anyone who expected Cohen to convert 20 touches into 174 yards and a touchdown is clairvoyant or a liar. The strangest part? Chicago dominated Tampa Bay in a 48-10 rout, and yet Howard’s clock-running padding never arrived. (He had a chance to snag a goal-line touchdown but was stuffed at the one.) Perhaps the Bears simply realized Cohen was better suited to pick apart the Buccaneers’ NFL-worst passing defense. Or maybe they wanted to give the second-year back more work in a lower-leverage spot. Either way, it’s a maddening outcome for Howard, who is now the RB26 through Week 4. Everyone has two weeks before deciding how to proceed for Week 6’s showdown against Miami. Cohen has never been given consistent opportunities, so he likely remains bench insurance while Howard regains a meatier role. But there’s a chance Matt Nagy realizes the second-year pro is a better fit for his uptempo offense, in which case he could supplant Howard as a high-upside RB2.

Green Bay Packers

 
Although hardly a decisive win, Aaron Jones backers should like what they saw in Week 4. He narrowly lead Green Bay’s backfield trio in snaps and touches during a 22-0 victory over Buffalo. More importantly, he thoroughly outperformed Jamaal Williams in his limited chances. He took a run for 30 yards-higher than his teammate’s total-and converted his only red-zone look into a touchdown. Now averaging 3.4 yards per run with no touchdowns, Williams squandered his last chance at preserving fantasy relevance. It’s notable, however, to see Ty Montgomery record 74 yards with a red-zone carry and target in a convincing win. He’s likely to remain a Cohen-like thorn who could steal the spotlight with a couple of big performances. Yet it now seems like a matter of when, not if, Jones assumes a featured role. Even in a timeshare, he’s a must-start against the Lions, who have relinquished an NFL-worst 157.8 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry.

Houston Texans

 
Lamar Miller owners officially have permission to worry. In a 37-34 win decided in overtime’s final seconds, Houston’s running back mustered a mediocre 49 yards on 14 carries. The Colts had ceded an NFL-high 28 receptions to running backs entering Week 4, and Will Fuller aggravated his hamstring during the game. Miller went catchless. Coach Bill O’Brien said his starting running back also “got a little banged up,” per Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, so that’s partially responsible for Alfred Blue fielding one fewer carry in just six fewer snaps. Blue, who didn’t secure any of his three targets, wasn’t much better. He also wasn’t particularly effective when eating into Miller’s snaps late last season. Miller still received four red-zone carries, and he’s 14th in rushing. Yet the 27-year-old is averaging 3.9 yards per rush with eight receptions and one touchdown this season. The Cowboys have relinquished 3.6 yards per carry, so he’ll need a clean bill of health and full Week 5 workload to pay off as the RB2 drafters anticipated. For now, he falls into flex territory.

New England Patriots

 
Week 4 epitomized the dangers of fading New England’s backfield. Earlier in the week, Rex Burkhead went on the injured reserve with a neck injury. This offered clarity for James White and Sony Michel, who symbiotically succeeded in their respective roles. Even in a blowout win, White played nearly half of the team’s 81 snaps. He drew eight rushes and receptions apiece while scoring on both fronts. He leads the team in receptions (22) and targets (30), but expect a returning Julian Edelman to capture some of those short passes from Tom Brady. PPR investors can still use him as a flex choice. As for Michel, nobody will mind seeing 33 snaps when it comes with 25 handoffs. He has now recorded 11 red-zone rushes in three games after fielding six in Week 4’s triumphs. While White monopolized the pass-catching responsibilities, the rookie also possesses those skills if given the chance. And when the Patriots run, he’s clearly their top option. That makes him an easy top-20 RB going forward and a strong start at home against the Colts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
No backfield warrants a stay-away label more than Tampa Bay’s. First in passing but last in yards per carry (3.1), the Buccaneers should abandon any hopes of establishing balance. Fantasy managers should not waste much time on Peyton Barber, who now has 148 rushing yards on the season. His rushes by week: 19, 16, 8, 7. He has 23 catches in 35 career games. This leaves the door open for Ronald Jones to take the starting spot, but he made a weak first impression with a long run of seven yards in his NFL debut. Although Jacquizz Rodgers had a golden opportunity to produce some garbage-time PPR points, the pass-catching back didn’t draw a single touch or target in the 38-point loss. It’s a shame none of them are contributing as a receiver, because the Falcons are waiting on the other end of Tampa Bay’s Week 5 bye. Barber is an unreliable, touchdown-dependent flex play who has tallied three yards on six red-zone runs. Jones is no more than a deep-league stash until his opportunities and production say otherwise.

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