David McCaffery | Tue, Nov 20th 2018, 6:05pm EST

FanDuel Market Watch: Week 12 (Fantasy Football)

Here are some of the players with the largest value changes on FanDuel as we enter Week 12 of the NFL season.

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Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck (IND): $8,400 vs. MIA (+$600)
It’s pretty hard not to root for Andrew Luck. After the endless injury saga that cost him all of 2017 and likely contributed to a slow start this season, the first overall pick of the 2012 NFL Draft is playing some of his best football, and is coming off his seventh straight game throwing three or more touchdown passes. That’s not a typo. Seventh. In fact, Luck’s 29 touchdowns rank second only to Patrick Mahomes‘ 37. Luck has only taken 10 sacks this year, and his ability to finally remain healthy and upright has been the catalyst for much of his success.

In Week 12, he faces the Dolphins in a reasonably tough matchup, as the Fins are only allowing 17.3 FanDuel points per contest to opposing signal callers (10th-least). However, it’s hard not to remain confident in him after he’s shredded solid pass defenses like Tennessee, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Houston, and New York (Jets) during his hot streak. Luck has earned high-end QB1 status regardless of matchup, and is likely worth his current cost, even as the fifth-most expensive passer on the slate.

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): $7,900 @ DEN (-$100)
It’s a tough week to discuss quarterback value decreases because only Ryan Fitzpatrick (benched) and Robert Griffin III (backup) sustained negative changes of more than $100. So we’ll discuss Big Ben here, if for no other reason than to mention his Week 11 performance. By now, you know all about his struggles that were followed up by late game heroics against the Jags, and it will stand out as one of the great in-game turnarounds in recent NFL history.

What is relevant to our current discussion, however, is that he’s seen his value drop (however incrementally) against a Broncos pass defense that is not playing up to its previous standard. While they’re more middle-of-the-back than bad, this is the same team that just allowed Philip Rivers to drop 401 yards and two touchdowns on them a week ago. Roethlisberger has surpassed 300 passing yards in six of 10 contests in 2018 and at $7,900, he could return reasonable value in Week 12.

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette (JAX): $8,100 @ BUF (+$500)
In his second game back from injury, Fournette took 28 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown, while adding two receptions for 46 yards in a devastating loss to the Steelers. With 30 touches on the day and 29 the week prior, the sophomore back is seeing true, bell-cow usage and has produced 250 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns over his past two contests. For this reason, it should come as no surprise to see his value skyrocket in the manner it has.

This week, he’s set to face a Bills defense that is permitting 24.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing runners (10th-most). It’s a favorable matchup, but even if it wasn’t, it’s hard to bet against the insane volume Fournette is currently receiving. The Jags have made it very clear that they intend to build their offense around him when he’s healthy, so until further notice, he’s a recommended play. While he doesn’t come at any sort of discount, (he’s the sixth-most expensive runner on the slate), he appears to have a 25-touch floor at the moment. That’s mouth-watering, even at $8,100.

Jamaal Williams (GB): $5,200 @ MIN (-$700)
This one doesn’t require a lot of explanation as Aaron Jones has clearly become the main man in the Green Bay Packers’ backfield. In Week 11 against the Seahawks, Jones played 44 of 48 running back snaps (90%) and had 16 touches. Meanwhile, Williams played just four snaps and touched the ball only once. It’s become clear that Jones is a difference-making talent and the Packers have decided to feature him. Unfortunately, that leaves Williams without much direction.

On top of the non-existent workload, Williams finds himself in a highly unfavorable matchup in Week 12. The Vikings only allow 17.8 FanDuel points per contest to opposing runners (sixth-fewest) and Williams has virtually no role in the offense to speak of. It isn’t a knock on the player himself, but Jones’ emergence makes Williams an easy avoid for the foreseeable future.

Wide Receivers

Tre’Quan Smith (NO): $6,400 vs. ATL (+$1,500)
Tre’Quan flashed greatness during his three-catch, 111-yard, two-touchdown performance against Washington back in October, but he solidified himself as a potential breakout player in Week 11. Indeed, the rookie snared 10 of 13 targets for 157 yards and a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles, and was dominant in nearly every sense of the word. This week, he draws a favorable matchup against a Falcons defense that is permitting 31.2 FanDuel points to opposing wideouts, so the potential is there for another strong performance.

One word of caution, however. Last week, Michael Thomas received only four targets and Alvin Kamara only saw one. That will likely never happen again. There is no way Smith will out-target those two 13-5 in a single game again any time soon, and his previous career high was six. Smith has definitely earned a greater role, but don’t chase last week’s volume or production. The Falcons have allowed an NFL-leading 93 receptions to opposing runners this year, so it could be a big day for Kamara and Mark Ingram. Smith could still get his, but with a $1,500 hike, he’s no longer a value play.

Michael Crabtree (BAL): $5,400 vs. OAK (-$400)
Crabtree’s first season with the Ravens hasn’t necessarily been bad, but he’s not putting up the numbers we’ve become accustomed to in recent years. The veteran has been held under 40 receiving yards in five of 10 contests, and has only found the end zone twice. In Week 11, he only caught one of three targets for seven yards as the Ravens relied heavily on the run with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Jackson could very well be under center again in Week 11 (although it’s still early) and as electric as the rookie signal caller is, that might not be the best news for Crabtree’s outlook.

The matchup with Oakland is reasonably favorable and Crabtree could be extra-motivated in a #Revengegame against his former team, but based on his recent production, it would be unwise to rely on him with so many other quality receivers available at discount costs.

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed (WAS): $6,000 @ DAL (+$600)
Reed’s season has been something of a disappointment, but he got back on track in Week 11, snaring seven receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown against the Texans. Reed was far and away the team’s featured weapon in the passing game, and it was the best he’s looked all season. The horrible injury to Alex Smith put a damper on the afternoon, although it’s worth noting that his touchdown reception came from backup quarterback Colt McCoy.

McCoy will be under center for the remainder of the season, including a Week 12 Thanksgiving date with the Cowboys. The ‘Boys are a middle-of-the-road matchup for tight ends, but after an 11-target performance, there’s reason for confidence in Reed. There are few players at the position as naturally gifted as the former Pro Bowler, and even on a short week, he could be productive for your squad.

Eric Ebron (IND): $5,500 vs. MIA (-$500)
It was just last week that week discussed Ebron, while cautioning you about his lack of volume and opportunity. Unfortunately, that proved to be his undoing in Week 11. Indeed, he didn’t receive a single target against the Titans, and that was in a game where Luck threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns. Making matters worse, Ebron was once again out-snapped by both Jack Doyle and Mo Allie-Cox.

Ebron is tough to rank because one week he showed us his ceiling, and the very next he showed us his floor. With troubling usage and a middling matchup with the Dolphins, he’s probably best avoided this week, even at his current depressed cost.